Great Powers and Irregular Challenges

1. Great Powers and Irregular Challenges T. X. Hammes 7 November 05

2. Enduring Characteristics of Insurgency • Political • Political not military fight • US critical vulnerability is will • No military victory required • Uses international boundaries • Low technology side wins • Protracted • Decades

3. Emerging Characteristics of Insurgency • Human Network • Resilient, flexible, fast • “Coalitions of the Willing” - local, regional, global, cyberspace • External actors drawn to the conflict • Transnational • Actors a single nationality or in a single nation

4. Emerging Characteristics of Insurgency • Transdimensional • Real and cyber elements • Some elements exist only in cyber; others in both • Self supporting • Fund raising/charity organizations • Legitimate businesses • Criminal enterprises • Reflects today’s society

5. Insurgent Ideology • Themes vary by group • Growing impact of causes rather than nationalism • All address Friedman’s “Poverty of Dignity” • Lack of power to influence own future • All offer a way out – Islamic, Sunni, Pashtun, Tamil, Chechen ... • Not about poverty, lack of education, etc.

6. Enduring Characteristics of Counterinsurgency • Governance • Security first • Without security, people can’t help • Hope for a better future • Better according to people • Must address “Poverty of Dignity”

7. Emerging Characteristics of Counterinsurgency • International effort required • Insurgent is transnational/transdimensional • Must deal with multiple aspirations • “Coalition of Willing” can be broken up • External actors must be eliminated • “True believers” not subject to influence • Must be kept from returning to their homeland

8. Why a model of human connections? • Reflects insurgencies as they operate • Best visual model of reality – not an org chart • Reveals interaction between all nodes • Shows true impact of friendly personnel decisions • Networks allow for human elements • Will, decisions, insights, charisma • Networks actively seek to grow • Adapt rapidly – seek to secure niche – govern • Networks interact with environment and other nets • Can portray transdimensional aspects • Works at all levels from international to local

9. Network Analysis –Visualization and understanding • “A string of recent breathtaking discoveries has forced us to acknowledge that amazingly simple and far-reaching laws govern the structure and evolution of all the complex networks that surround us.” Albert-Laslzo BarabasiLinked: The New Science of Networks

10. Use the Laws • Understand type of network • Scale free – • Very few huge hubs (Google, Yahoo, Amazon) • Huge number of tiny nodes (Personal web pages) • Small world – Very small, little outside contact -9/11 cells • Map nodes and links • Pre-existing social nets • Intelligence reports • Persons, events, organizations • Anti-gang/network analysis software • Look for blanks in maps • Templating for 21st Century Already been done!

11. Sageman The Al Qaeda Human Network

12. Sageman Pre-existing vs Operational Links

13. Key Outputs • Intensely HUMAN activities to map • Know hubs • Understand how environment feeds hubs • Understand how changing environment impacts hubs • Know links between hubs • In real time • In cyber • Between cyber and real

14. What do human connections tell us? • Hub relationships • Inside organizations • Between organizations • Is same person or organization a hub in more than one? • Your map versus theoretical map • Are there elements missing? • Scan the gaps • Mapping should reveal • Changes over time in nodes/hubs/links • Relationships • Anomalies • Only by understanding relationships can you determine actions to be taken

15. Strategy –It’s about PEOPLE • Integrated command/execution • Strengthen your key nodes • Central task remains governance • Weaken his key nodes • Change environment – population control is essential • Exploit tensions between groups • Create counter networks • Information operations

16. Integrated Execution • Get strategy right – resources to requirements • Delegate to in-theater leadership • Committee structure – networked leadership • Host nation and US personnel on SAME staff • Committee structure • Civil not military problem – • Must build civil capability

17. Network Attack Plan • Identify people hubs – real and cyber • OO trumps DA in OODA loop • Enemy leadership won’t look like a hub • FUNDAMENTAL RULES • 1. Exploit is better than attack • 2. Best attack is soft attack – • creates distrust in enemy network • 3. If hard attack, targeted, simultaneous attacks only – otherwise network repairs • Increase surveillance after attack

18. Information Campaign • Integral to both strengthen and attack • Integrated Host Nation/US • US is junior partner • Strategic themes; local release • Mission orders for IO too • MUST not be controlled from DC or by US agency • Cultural understanding • Speed of response • Targeted message • Different for various audience • Messages do not conflict • Must be based on truth – learn to deal with mistakes • Abu Ghraib accountability • Anti-Islam sentiment in administration

19. New Capabilities Required • Change personnel policies • Professional and educational development • Beyond Goldwater-Nichols for Interagency • Separation from parent agency upon deployment • Cultural and language expertise • Advisory capability – civil and security • Human network analysis • Trained Personnel – culture, language, networks • Software

20. Summary • Insurgency is a competition between human networks • Must understand those nets • Cultural, historical • Insurgent, HNG, People, Coalition, NGOs • Strategy should be based on network interaction • Strengthen our key nodes • Weaken his key nodes • Shift mass from connecting to him to connecting to us • Governance is the central function • Security for the people – NOT killing T’s • Hope for the future