National Adaptation Initiatives: Challenges and Approaches

1. National Adaptation Initiatives: Challenges and Approaches Ms Jo Mummery Assistant Secretary Land Management and Science Branch IOCI Living With Our Changing Climate Seminar 15-17 August 2005

2. Premise: • Climate change can no longer be considered as some secondary factor superimposed on other more important considerations determining economic, social, and resource development in Australia • Climate change must now be considered as a fundamental part of the core operating environment affecting planning for most aspects of land management and development Herein lies the Challenge of Adaptation

3. The Challenge of Adaptation • Global climate change science is robust, and uncertainty associated with timing, nature and quantum of change • eg little known about likelihood of abrupt or step-wise change • Regional climate change impacts still poorly specified • regional downscaling improving • many uncertainties still with effects on extreme events • Regional sectoral/integrated impacts even more poorly known • little known about threshold effects • paucity of research on interactive effects • Governments, industries and communities need targeted information about system resilience & responsiveness • do we know enough to act? • how are we to design and support research to address policy priorities & help us make informed decisions?

4. Outline of Presentation • Australian Government’s Initiatives • Australian Climate Change Science Programme • National Climate Change Adaptation Programme • Greenhouse Action in Rural Australia • National Adaptation Framework • Concluding Remarks

5. Australian Climate Change Science Programme • Govt support, recognising strategic priority of research agenda • Partnership with CSIRO and BoM, commenced 1989 • Targeted programme 2004-08 • Better understand drivers of Australia’s climate and how they may change (oceanic carbon uptake & change, aerosols, terrestrial biosphere carbon flux) • Maintain world class modelling capacity (AR4, ACCESS) • Investigate nature of change (next generation projections, separate from variability, palaeo science, extremes) • Support Australia’s leadership in Sthn Hem climate science (international collaboration) • Contribute to delivery of the National Research Priorities • Build capacity to support impact assessments • Communication (Hot Topics, carbon cycle, science status)

6. The Science is Improving • Climate modelling – more comprehensive, reduced uncertainty - Australian leadership in Sthn Ocean (overturning circulation, Antarctic bottom water formation, sink strength) • Expanding base of high precision measurements • Ice cores, sea level rise, atmospheric CO2, data rehab, flux • Australian systems different • Probabilistic projections • Disentangle climate variability and climate change - e.g. rainfall decline in SW WA • Detection & Attribution - confidence in detection of greenhouse warming - techniques much improved • Debate & peer review enhances rigour & confidence

7. 700 Projected 2100 650 600 Ice Ages 550 500 Concentration 450 400 Current 350 2 CO 300 250 200 150 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Years Before Present Unprecedented CO2 Change in History of Our Species

8. Science Supporting Adaptation • Building a world class climate modelling capacity • ENSO, Southern Ocean, Indian Ocean Dipole, sea-ice • Interactive carbon-climate • Dynamic vegetation • A new generation of regional climate projections • Downscaling techniques • Climate variability and extreme events • Understanding how the drivers of natural variability may change under enhanced greenhouse conditions – e.g. El Niño events • The likelihood of increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events – drought, floods, tropical cyclones, storm surge, fire • The terrestrial carbon cycle • How will Australia’s biosphere respond: including the role of land use change and terrestrial carbon sinks, and positive feedbacks

9. Climate change, climate variability & extreme events • Extreme events- effect of • climate change on frequency & • intensity: • Extreme rainfall and wind events • Tropical cyclones • Hail and severe storms • Sea level events – changes to storm surge events • Drought – past and future changes in drought • Climate change and climate variability - Examining linkages – e.g. changes in monsoon onset and break periods

10. Current 1-in-100 year storm surge extent 1-in-100 year storm surge extent under 2xCO2 conditions Modelled Inundation of Cairns - Vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges: significant damage to infrastructure and essential services • Figure below - storm surge impact on Cairns with doubling of atmospheric CO2

11. Australian Government Initiatives -Australian Climate Change Science Programme- National Climate Change Adaptation Programme- Greenhouse Action in Regional Australia Programme

12. National Climate Change Adaptation Programme Helping to prepare governments, industries and communities for the unavoidable consequences of climate change.

13. NCCAP…Key Objectives • Advise Australian Government on policy issues related to climate change impacts and adaptation, including risks and opportunities • Build national capacity to support the development of effective and targeted adaptation strategies • Engage key stakeholders and provide targeted and scale-relevant information and tools to industry sectors and regions • Facilitate recognition of climate change as part of core operating environment for policy and decision making in vulnerable sectors/regions • Close links with the Australian Climate Change Science Program.

14. National Climate Change Adaptation Programme Policy Advice Building Adaptation Capacity Research Partnerships Adaptation targeted guidance eg local gov’t National risk assessment Sectoral research Policy co-ordination and advice Regional research Engaging stakeholders Integrating Comm’th policies and programs Developing adaptation tools National adaptation policy

15. Risk and Vulnerability Report • Sectors requiring urgent attention: • agriculture • water supply • settlements and emergency services • energy supply and distribution • biodiversity • Sectors requiring some attention: • tourism, health, fisheries and forestry • Regions of high vulnerability • SW-WA, Great Barrier Reef, SE Australia, coastal and alpine regions

16. Policy advice stream • Identify risks and opportunities for Australia arising from climate change and provide advice to Govt on: • National risk and vulnerability assessment • Costs of climate change impacts/effects on economy and markets • Implications for standard setting • Assess national demographic and development patterns and their influence on Australia’s vulnerability • Implications for long-lived assets/infrastructure and the insurance industry • Adaptation capacity and priorities • Work in partnership to incorporate climate change risk assessment, impacts and adaptation into key Govt policies and programs

17. Building capacity stream • Engaging stakeholders in vulnerable sectors and regions to promote awareness of • climate change impacts • the need to adapt • the advantages of early adaptation • the tools available to assist with adaptation planning • Developing a suite of tools to assist stakeholders with adaptation planning • Risk management guidelines • Spatial information on impacts accessible on web • Enhanced sectoral modelling tools eg BIOCLIM, cc & hydrological modelling capacities • Targeted tools for eg planners, local government • Guidance to incorporate climate change into existing mechanisms for vulnerable sectors • Design standards and building codes

18. Research partnership stream • Commissioning scoping studies and research in partnership with other organisations to assess vulnerability and adaptation options for sectors • Current work on energy infrastructure, vulnerable cities, marine systems and extreme events • Planned work on water resources, agriculture • Integrated assessments to provide a range of adaptation options relevant to regions • Current discussions on major projects in Cairns and GBR, SE Australia, SW WA regions • Future work on urban development and coastal vulnerability assessment • Methods development and piloting

19. Climate Change & Wheat Yield in WA Partnership between the Dept of Ag WA and the AGO. Aims to identify regional vulnerabilities of different agricultural industries in the SW of WA Some preliminary results from this project indicate that: • Wheat yield is likely to change over a 50 year scenario to 2050 • With main production areas moving towards the coast and above the 400mm rainfall isohyet

20. SW-WA joint adaptation project • WA Govt committed to working with partners including AGO to progress integrated assessment of impacts of climate change and adaptation options in south-west • First phase to explore effectiveness of management approaches and decisions in region in response to rainfall decline • Consultations and workshops • Second phase to be developed

21. Australian Government Initiatives -Australian Climate Change Science Programme- National Climate Change Adaptation Programme- Greenhouse Action in Regional Australia Programme

22. Maintaining the Competitive Edge Sectors – National Farms Regions Climate Change • Climate change and its impacts intersect with different parts of industry and society differently • The challenge is to maintain (or improve) the competitive edge at each intersection point i.e.: Build Adaptive Capacity Across Industry and Society

23. Building Adaptive Capacity International Supply and Demand Climate Change Agro – Ecological Zoning Annual Weather Patterns There are many factors that impact on industry and society over which we have very little control or influence – Climate Change is one

24. Building Adaptive Capacity International Supply and Demand Climate Change Agro – Ecological Zones Annual Weather Patterns • Adaptive capacity is the ability to successfully cope with the impact - using responses over which it has a high degree of control or influence Resilient Sensitive Adaptive Capacity

25. An example: How can Australian industry understand and manage the effects of increased CO2 (in association with other CC parameters) on plant growth and function. To manage risk, the grains industry has to know the interactive effects of: • Elevated CO2 • Changed rainfall • Increased temperature • Increased atmospheric evaporative potential • Nutritional change … on its capacity to produce & compete

26. However, there are major gaps in knowledge: • There is not one field-based study that has addressed the effects of elevated CO2 under Australian conditions. • There can be no comfort from the results obtained in controlled environment experiments or from northern hemisphere studies. • Industry view: Australian agriculture recognises that it has a ‘window of opportunity’ during these ‘early warning stages’ to prepare for the effects of climate change on all levels of industry.

27. A national approach to assessing the impacts of CC in agriculture • Free air CO2 enriched (FACE) experiments on wheat are planned to be a major national focus for the AGO • Possible for a FACE-wheat site to be located in WA (requires CO2 and partnerships) • Outcomes will be important to identify the future asset value of agricultural land (production, economics, social and environmental issues in a changed climate)

28. National Adaptation Framework • Context - growing international and national attention on adaptation • COAG recently recognised adaptation as a key national climate change issue • Benefits in joint work to address cross-jurisdictional issues and impacts, share learnings and minimise duplication • Many issues not being currently addressed in sectoral Ministerial Councils • Collaboration needed to develop a National Adaptation Framework

29. Concluding Remarks • There is no doubt that climate change is occurring – and there are unavoidable consequences for Australia’s governments, industries and communities • Climate change must be considered a fundamental part of the core operating environment • The approach for sectors and regions must be to understand risk, manage to increase resilience, and take adaptation action to manage risk and cope with climate change • The Australian Government has a range of programmes to address climate change – but these alone will not solve the problems • It is imperative for all governments and industry sectors to take greater initiative and leadership in climate change • When should we start to give climate change the attention it needs?

30. And: REMEMBER NOAH What would have happened if Noah had waited until the flood - before starting to build the Ark?

31. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Knowledge to realise opportunities and manage risks THE END