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TREND

TREND. TREND. Trend is all about describing the direction that your graph takes over time. We are looking for true and long-term changes in direction. NOTE: There may be more than one trend

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TREND

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  1. TREND

  2. TREND Trend is all about describing the direction that your graph takes over time. We are looking for true and long-term changes in direction. NOTE: • There may be more than one trend • Look for levelling off/ changes in direction (positive to constant, or to negative, etc.) that have proven to continue for sustained periods

  3. GRAPH Add labels ADD LABELS

  4. OVERALL QUANTIFICATION (FROM BEGINNING TO END) The graph shows that the trend for the number of holiday visitors was increasing from about 35000 in the beginning of 2000 up to about 45000 visitors in the beginning of 2013. This means there is a rise of approximately 770 holiday travellers every year.

  5. OVERALL QUANTIFICATION (FROM BEGINNING TO END) The graph shows that the trend for the number of holiday visitors was increasing from about 35000 in the beginning of 2000 up to about 45000 visitors in the beginning of 2013. This means there is a rise of approximately 770 holiday travellers every year.

  6. OVERALL QUANTIFICATION (FROM BEGINNING TO END) The graph shows that the trend for the number of holiday visitors was increasing from about 35000 per quarterin the beginning of 2000 up to about 45000 per quartervisitors in the beginning of 2013. This means there is a rise of approximately 770 holiday travellers every year.

  7. OVERALL QUANTIFICATION (FROM BEGINNING TO END) The graph shows that the trend for the number of holiday visitors was increasing from about 35000 per quarter in the beginning of 2000 up to about 45000 visitors per quarter in the beginning of 2013. This means there is a rise of approximately 770 holiday travellers (quarterly) every year. WORKING OUT rise is 10000 (35000-45000) visitors ,run is 13years When you do gradient: for rise the units are as important as the number. Don’t forget the units. Same thing for run

  8. BREAK IT INTO SECTIONS • Now break it up into sections. • Students often break the series into too many sections, because they are paying too much attention to noise rather than the general direction • Quantify each section first, then follow this up with a breakdown of any unusual events along the way

  9. SECTION 1 QUANTIFICATION The graph shows that the trend for the number of holiday visitors was increasing from about 35000 per quarterin the beginning of 2000 up to about 59000 per quartervisitors in the beginning of 2007.

  10. SECTION 1: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY During this period, we noticed a sharp increase in the year 2000, this could be caused by multiple international events happening around that time, “Visitors to several international events - America’s Cup, APEC summit, World Netball Championship, Under-17 Soccer World Cup - contributed to this large increase” (as cited in External Migration January 2000)

  11. SECTION 1: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY During this period, we noticed a sharp increase in the year 2000, this could be caused by multiple international events happening around that time, “Visitors to several international events - America’s Cup, APEC summit, World Netball Championship, Under-17 Soccer World Cup - contributed to this large increase” (as cited in External Migration January 2000)

  12. SECTION 1: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY During this period, we noticed a sharp increase in the year 2000, this could be caused by multiple international events happening around that time, “Visitors to several international events - America’s Cup, APEC summit, World Netball Championship, Under-17 Soccer World Cup - contributed to this large increase” (as cited in External Migration January 2000)

  13. SECTION 1: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY The prominent increase in the end of 2003 could be partly contributed to the success of “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy which is completed in December 2003. This is reflected by the research “The International Visitor Survey from 2004 found that six percent of visitors to New Zealand (around 120,000 - 150,000 people) cite The Lord of the Rings as being one of the main reasons for visiting New Zealand.” (as cited in Marketing destination New Zealand through the Hobbit trilogy, 2012)

  14. SECTION 1: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY The prominent increase in the end of 2003 could be partly contributed to the success of “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy which is completed in December 2003. This is reflected by the research “The International Visitor Survey from 2004 found that six percent of visitors to New Zealand (around 120,000 - 150,000 people) cite The Lord of the Rings as being one of the main reasons for visiting New Zealand.” (as cited in Marketing destination New Zealand through the Hobbit trilogy, 2012)

  15. SECTION 1: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY The prominent increase in the end of 2003 could be partly contributed to the success of “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy which is completed in December 2003. This is reflected by the research “The International Visitor Survey from 2004 found that six percent of visitors to New Zealand (around 120,000 - 150,000 people) cite The Lord of the Rings as being one of the main reasons for visiting New Zealand.” (as cited in Marketing destination New Zealand through the Hobbit trilogy, 2012)

  16. SECTION 2: QUANTIFICATION However, from the start of 2007 to half way through 2012, the trend remains to be relatively stable around 60000 holidayers per quarter. This change in trend could be explained by the global economical recession starting from roughly 2008, “The global economy slowed sharply in 2008 and 2009, which led to a deep recession in the US and dampened economic growth in Europe and Asia,” and “Directly, it will affect visitor numbers and spending from Europe. Indirectly, it could dent global growth and visitor number and spending from other parts of the world.” (as cited in Forecast commentary, 2012) This statement is justified by the decrease in trend from about 58000 to 55000 holiday visitors, starting from the mid 2008 to the beginning of 2009. The change is understandable as people will first cut their budget in recreational activities like holiday travel.

  17. SECTION 2: REASON FOR CHANGE IN DIRECTION However, from the start of 2007 to the end of 2011, the trend remains to be relatively stablearound 60000 hollidayers. This change in trend could be explained by the global economical recession starting from roughly 2008, “The global economy slowed sharply in 2008 and 2009, which led to a deep recession in the US and dampened economic growth in Europe and Asia,” and “Directly, it will affect visitor numbers and spending from Europe. Indirectly, it could dent global growth and visitor number and spending from other parts of the world.” (as cited in Forecast commentary, 2012) This statement is justified by the decrease in trend from about 58000 to 55000 holiday visitors, starting from the mid 2008 to the beginning of 2009. The change is understandable as people will first cut their budget in recreational activities like holiday travel.

  18. SECTION 2: REASON FOR CHANGE IN DIRECTION However, from the start of 2007 to the end of 2011, the trend remains to be relatively stable around 60000 hollidayers. This change in trend could be explained by the global economical recession starting from roughly 2008, “The global economy slowed sharply in 2008 and 2009, which led to a deep recession in the US and dampened economic growth in Europe and Asia,” and “Directly, it will affect visitor numbers and spending from Europe. Indirectly, it could dent global growth and visitor number and spending from other parts of the world.” (as cited in Forecast commentary, 2012) This statement is justified by the decrease in trend from about 58000 to 55000 holiday visitors, starting from the mid 2008 to the beginning of 2009. The change is understandable as people will first cut their budget in recreational activities like holiday travel.

  19. SECTION 2: REASON FOR CHANGE IN DIRECTION However, from the start of 2007 to the end of 2011, the trend remains to be relatively stable around 60000 hollidayers with a very slight decrease over time. This change in trend could be explained by the global economical recession starting from roughly 2008, “The global economy slowed sharply in 2008 and 2009, which led to a deep recession in the US and dampened economic growth in Europe and Asia,” and “Directly, it will affect visitor numbers and spending from Europe. Indirectly, it could dent global growth and visitor number and spending from other parts of the world.” (as cited in Forecast commentary, 2012)This statement is justified by the decrease in trend from about 58000 to 55000 holiday visitors, starting from the mid 2008 to the beginning of 2009. The change is understandable as people will first cut their budget in recreational activities like holiday travel.

  20. SECTION 2: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY There was a sudden decrease in 2012. This could be due to a number of reasons, such as the moving holiday effect of Chinese New Year, “There were fewer arrivals from Hong Kong and China because the popular Chinese New Year travel period fell in January in 2012 compared with February in 2011.” (as cited in International Travel and Migration: February 2012) In addition, the drop in trend could be partially contributed to the decrease in Japanese traveller due to unexpected tsunami and earthquake in 2011, “Visits from Japan were further affected after that country experienced its own devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.” (as quoted in International Travel and Migration: February 2012)

  21. SECTION 2: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY There was a sudden decrease in 2012. This could be due to a number of reasons, such as the moving holiday effect of Chinese New Year, “There were fewer arrivals from Hong Kong and China because the popular Chinese New Year travel period fell in January in 2012 compared with February in 2011.” (as cited in International Travel and Migration: February 2012) In addition, the drop in trend could be partially contributed to the decrease in Japanese traveller due to unexpected tsunami and earthquake in 2011, “Visits from Japan were further affected after that country experienced its own devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.” (as quoted in International Travel and Migration: February 2012)

  22. SECTION 2: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY There was a sudden decrease in 2012. This could be due to a number of reasons, such as the moving holiday effect of Chinese New Year, “There were fewer arrivals from Hong Kong and China because the popular Chinese New Year travel period fell in January in 2012 compared with February in 2011.” (as cited in International Travel and Migration: February 2012) In addition, the drop in trend could be partially contributed to the decrease in Japanese traveller due to unexpected tsunami and earthquake in 2011, “Visits from Japan were further affected after that country experienced its own devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.” (as quoted in International Travel and Migration: February 2012)

  23. SECTION 2: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY There was a sudden decrease in 2012. This could be due to a number of reasons, such as the moving holiday effect of Chinese New Year, “There were fewer arrivals from Hong Kong and China because the popular Chinese New Year travel period fell in January in 2012 compared with February in 2011.” (as cited in International Travel and Migration: February 2012) In addition, the drop in trend could be partially contributed to the decrease in Japanese traveller due to unexpected tsunami and earthquake in 2011, “Visits from Japan were further affected after that country experienced its own devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.” (as quoted in International Travel and Migration: February 2012)

  24. SECTION 2: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY There was a sudden decrease in 2012. This could be due to a number of reasons, such as the moving holiday effect of Chinese New Year, “There were fewer arrivals from Hong Kong and China because the popular Chinese New Year travel period fell in January in 2012 compared with February in 2011.” (as cited in International Travel and Migration: February 2012) In addition, the drop in trend could be partially contributed to the decrease in Japanese traveller due to unexpected tsunami and earthquake in 2011, “Visits from Japan were further affected after that country experienced its own devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.” (as quoted in International Travel and Migration: February 2012)

  25. SECTION 2: DESCRIBE DISTINCT FEATURES ALONG THE WAY Calling the decline at the end a separate section is a classic example of paying too much attention to the noise, rather than identifying true changes in direction More data is needed to before we consider it a true change in direction.

  26. TREND Must describe the trend line (red) when describing trend. Some people use the raw data, which is not how we describe trend. We describe it by the red line.

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