Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014

1. BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND CYCLE INDICATORS Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE) Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014

2. Overview Economic Cycles at FGV…………………………………………..3 Timeline……………………………………………………………….4 Tendency Surveys……………………………………………….….5 Cycle Indicators...........................................................................9 Mostly used series and quantitative data...............................10 On Going Projects.....................................................................14

3. FGV Economic Cycles

4. Tendency Surveys and Cycle IndicatorsTimeline of the FGV M M 2012 2013 Labour market leading and coincident Indicators Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV M 2010 Trade & Construction M 2008 Services Q 2007 Latin American Economic Survey Experts survey/part of Ifo WES M 2005 Consumer Q 1998 M Investment 1966 Manufacturing(Quarterly until 2005)

5. System of Tendency Surveys • Since 2008, expansion of coverage and improvements have been supported by the Brazilian Central Bank; • Main results are made public on FGV´s web site (www.portalibre.fgv.br); • Detailed results are sold as a means of financing part of the investments.

6. Main Statistical Features • Business tendency Surveys • Questionnaires and sector coverage are similar to the European HarmonisedProgramme; • Firms stratified by size (large, medium and small) and sector; • Web-based questionnaire complemented by telephone calls. • Consumer Survey • Questionnaire combines the “European Harmonised”, Michigan and TCB; • Consumers stratified by income level and region (city); • Coverage – 7 major cities of the country; • Data collected by web and telephone calls. • Calendar for FGV Surveys is available at FGV´s web site: http://portalibre.fgv.br/

7. FGV Surveys – Size of Samples • * 4 incomelevels; 7 cities

8. Indicators from Surveys used in Brazil • Besides the confidence indices, some individual indicators extracted from theses surveys are widely used in Brazil: • Consumer´s Inflation Expectations (published separately); • Consumer´s employment assessment; • Household´s financial situation (delinquency rates); • Savings/consumption (consumer´s indebtedness cycle); • Manufacturing Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU); • Inventory levels; • Investment Confidence Index – Aggregation of confidence indices from sectors related to productive investments (eg: capital goods, inputs to construction, etc).

9. Cycle Indicators • Starting in 2009, FGV created indicators from Tendency Surveys data combined with other indicators: • Labour market leading and coincident Indicators (only survey indicators); • Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV (following the Conference Board traditional family of indicators).

10. Manufacturing Confidence Index x Manufacturing Production* Source: FGV/IBRE and IBGE * Published with a 40-day delay

11. Future Business Situation x Investment Source: FGV/IBRE

12. Expected Employment x Industrial Employment Source: FGV/IBRE and MTE

13. Leading Economic Index and Coincident Economic Index Source: FGV/IBRE The gray areas represent the recessions of the brazilian economy, according to the Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE).

14. OnGoingProjects • Level of capacity utilisation for non-manufacturing sectors (2013-); • Granting access to microdata from both Consumer and Business surveys to academic researchers from inside and outside FGV (2014); • Website for the working papers: http://bit.ly/TextosDeDiscussaoIBRE • Extending the consumer Survey for the whole country (2014-); • Programme for producing an aggregate Confidence Index for the BRICS’ countriesand a Book on the BRICS’ economic cycles (2012-);

15. Thanks