Andy Gouldson, Niall Kerr University of Leeds Corrado Topi, Ellie Dawkins, Johan Kuylenstierna University of York

2. Andy Gouldson, Niall Kerr University of Leeds Corrado Topi, Ellie Dawkins, Johan Kuylenstierna University of York

3. Climate Change and Economics • The Stern Review changed the political landscape on climate change by claiming that: • The cost of avoiding dangerous climate change (1-2% of GDP). • Is much less than • The costs of dangerous climate change (5-20% of GDP).

4. The Key Questions • Can we provide an accessible and locally specific evidence base on the low carbon economy? • Does the evidence base suggest that there is a business case for major scale investments? • Does it suggest that there is also a wider social and economic case? • If so, how can we secure, structure, deliver major scale investments in the low carbon economy in the Humber?

5. The Approach • A review of thousands of energy efficient and low carbon options – only considers energy efficiency and small scale renewables. • A realistic assessment of the costs and the energy (and hence cost and carbon) savings associated with each measure. • A review of the scope for the deployment of these measures in households, commerce, transport and industry at the local level. • Identification of the most cost and carbon effective options for different sectors. • Mapping the capacity of the low carbon goods and services sector to absorb investment and create employment. • All based on conservative assessments and realistic projections.

6. Headline Findings for the Birmingham • and the Wider Urban Area • £5.1 billion (c10% of GDP) left the local economy in 2012 through payment of the energy bill. This figure is forecast to grow to £6.6 billion by 2022. • There is a commercially attractive opportunity to bring £3.6 billion of investment into the local economy to exploit cost effective low carbon and energy efficient options. • Such investments would pay for themselves in 3.8 years, cutting energy bills by £954 million a year. • They would also create 1,650 jobs and an extra £100 million in wider GVA every year.

7. The Carbon Impact +7% 7% 22% 32% 36% 38%

8. Cost Neutral Investments – Domestic • £1.5 billion of investment opportunities • Exploiting these would generate savings of £507 million a year • Payback period 3 years • Would create 1200 jobs • Carbon savings equivalent to 3.9% of emissions

9. Top 10 Measures - Domestic Cost Effective Carbon Effective Reduce household heating by 1 C Solid wall insulation Pre-76 cavity wall insulation Electronic products Ground Source Heat Pump with RHI Air source heat pumps ICT products Efficient lighting Solar water heating with RHI Glazing – single to new • Mini wind turbines (5kW) with FIT • Reduced heating for washing machines • Electronic products • ICT products • Integrated digital TVs • Reduced standby consumption • Reduce household heating by 1 C • A++ rated cold appliances • A rated ovens • Efficient lighting Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential

10. Cost Neutral Investments – Commercial • £586 million of investment opportunities • Exploiting these would generate savings of £292 million a year • Payback period 2 years • Would create 414 jobs • Carbon savings equivalent to 4.7% of emissions

11. Top 10 Measures - Commercial Cost Effective Carbon Effective Most energy efficient boiler Programmable thermostats Biomass boilers with RHI Air source heat pumps Ground Source Heat Pumps with RHI Heating – reducing room temperature Most energy efficient double glazing Heating - Optimising start times Lights - Basic timer Most energy efficient air conditioning • Vending machines - energy management • Photocopier - energy management • Computers - energy management • Monitors - energy management • Printers - energy management • Most energy efficient monitor PC only • Lights - Turn off lights for an extra hour • Lights - Sunrise-Sunset timers • Lights – basic timer • More efficient air conditioning Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential

12. Cost Neutral Investments – Industrial • £1.1 billion of investment opportunities • Exploiting these would generate savings of £118 million a year • Payback period 9.3 years • Would create 222 jobs • Carbon savings equivalent to 4.2% of emissions

13. Top 10 Measures - Industrial Cost Effective Carbon Effective Renewable heat Others High temperature heating Process improvement Drying and separation Motors and drives Controls Heat recovery Energy management Operation and maintenance • Burners • Refrigeration and air-conditioning • Lighting • Compressed air • Design • Fabrication and machining • Low temperature heating • New food and drink plant • Operation and maintenance • Drying and separation Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential

14. Cost Neutral Investments – Transport (road) • £2billion of investment opportunities • Exploiting these would generate savings of £228 million a year • Payback period 6.51 years • Would create jobs – number tbc • Carbon savings equivalent to 2.1% of emissions

15. Top 10 Measures - Transport Cost Effective Carbon Effective tbc • tbc Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential

16. A Business Model

17. Conclusions • There are financially attractive ways of… • stimulating the economy, • reducing vulnerability, • protecting competitiveness, • creating employment, • improving public health • Whilst at the same timeslashing your carbon footprint.