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A brief introduction to climate change and forests

Topic 2, Section A. A brief introduction to climate change and forests. Objectives. In this presentation you will learn the basic facts about climate change. You will also learn about: The difference between mitigation and adaptation International responses to climate change.

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A brief introduction to climate change and forests

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  1. Topic 2, Section A A brief introduction to climate change and forests

  2. Objectives In this presentation you will learn the basic facts about climate change. You will also learn about: • The difference between mitigation and adaptation • International responses to climate change Topic 2, Section A, slide 2 of 30

  3. Outline • A brief introduction to climate change • The difference between mitigationand adaptation • International responses to climate change Topic 2, Section A, slide 3 of 30

  4. 1. A Brief Introduction to Climate Change The role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Created in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change : • Reviews and assesses existing scientific literature • Publishes reports • Provides a scientific basis for policy making • Three working groups: • Science of Climate Change • Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability • Mitigation • Reports: • Assessment Reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007) • Special and Methodology Reports, such as Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (2000), Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (2003) Learn more at: www.ipcc.ch Topic 2, Section A, slide 4 of 30

  5. Global Mean Temperature Source: IPCC, 2007 Source: IPCC, 2001 Topic 2, Section A, slide 5 of 30

  6. Global Mean Temperature Source: IPCC, 2007 Source: IPCC, 2001 Topic 2, Section A, slide 6 of 30

  7. The Greenhouse Effect A natural phenomenon, essential for life on Earth various of the reflected energy is absorbed by gases in the atmosphere. These are known as greenhouse gases. Gases Gases Topic 2, Section A, slide 7 of 30

  8. Greenhouse Gases NO2 CO2 CH4 All Source: IPCC, 2007 Topic 2, Section A, slide 8 of 30

  9. Global Radiative Forcing CO2 N20 CH4 Halocarbons CH4 Source: IPCC, 2007 Topic 2, Section A, slide 9 of 30

  10. World GHG Emision Source: WRI, 2005. Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policies Topic 2, Section A, slide 10 of 30

  11. Main Sources of GhG by Countries (2007) Source: IPCC, 2007 Topic 2, Section A, slide 11 of 30

  12. The “business as usual” scenario By 2030, the emissions from the BRIC’s (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will equal those from the 30 developed countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Total greenhouse gas emissions by country groups 1970-2050 OECD = 30 OECD countries BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China ROW = Rest of the World Source: OECD 2008 Topic 2, Section A, slide 12 of 30

  13. What is a ton of CO2? Examples from daily life footprint: • Flying round-trip from New York to Los Angeles = 0.9 tonnes CO2/person • Driving an average car in the US = 5.4 tonnes CO2/year • Living in a detached family home with 4 bedrooms In California = 20 tonnes CO2/yr/family In Michigan = 51 tonnes CO2/yr/family National averages: • One person in the US = 25 tonnes CO2/yr • One person in India = 1 tonne CO2/yr www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/ind_calculator.html www.nature.org/initiatives/climatechange/calculator/ Topic 2, Section A, slide 13 of 30

  14. Climate Change Scenarios Source: IPCC, 2007 Topic 2, Section A, slide 14 of 30

  15. Climate Change Impacts Source: GRID Arenal Topic 2, Section A, slide 15 of 30

  16. 2. Mitigation vs. Adaptation The problem The solutions Increasing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation Impacts Complementary Measures Topic 2, Section A, slide 16 of 30

  17. Mitigation vs. Adaptation Sectoral approach For many sectors, the emphasis is on adaptation OR mitigation • Water or health Adaptation • Energy or transportation Mitigation • For forestry and agriculture Mitigation AND adaptation Topic 2, Section A, slide 17 of 30

  18. 3. International Responses Main international agreements on climate change: • 1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Creates the Conference of Parties and subsidiary bodies Regular meetings • 1997: Kyoto Protocol Complemented by other Conference of Parties agreements To date, there has been an emphasis on mitigation in international agreements Adaptation in international agreements: • Not well addressed • Impacts and adaptation must be in National Communications • Least Developed Countries are drawing up National Adaptation Programmes of Action Topic 2, Section A, slide 18 of 30

  19. Emission Trading (ET) tC tC JointImplementation(JI) tC $ $ $ Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Project Non-Annex I country The Kyoto Protocol at a Glance Emission reduction commitment(for 2008-2012:95% on average of 1990 level) Flexibility mechanisms Annex I country Annex I country Project Annex I country National Efforts Topic 2, Section A, slide 19 of 30

  20. Kyoto Protocol Status of Ratification Source: Wikipedia, 2008, permission granted under the GNU Free Documentation license Topic 2, Section A, slide 20 of 30

  21. Forests and the Clean Development Mechanism • Eligible activities • Only Afforestation and Reforestation (may include Agroforestry) • Land without forest on December 31, 1989 • Modalities and procedures • Additionality and baseline • Methodologies • Permanence and temporary credits • Complexity and transaction costs • Scale issues • Current status (April 2009) • 3 registered forestry project (among 1593 CDM projects in total) • 17 approved methodologies Topic 2, Section A, slide 21 of 30

  22. Avoided Deforestation • Also called • REDD (Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) • Tropical deforestation = 17.4% emissions • Not included in any agreement (e.g. not in the CDM) • In 2005: start of new discussions on RED • Main issues: • Links with cap-and-trade agreement and carbon markets • What to reward (efforts, reductions compared to a baseline…)? • Impacts on sustainable development, redistribution of benefits) • Monitoring • Bali 2007: agreement on pilot actions • World Bank's Forest Carbon Partnership Facility • Many bilateral initiatives Topic 2, Section A, slide 22 of 30

  23. Diversity of Carbon Markets Kyoto: ET and JI (between Annex I countries) European Market ETS Canada Oregon JVETS (Japan) RGGI CCX WRCAI Clean Development Mechanism(*) Voluntary markets (*) Kyoto market Other cap-and-trade markets Voluntary markets GGAS (New South Wales) Annex I Non Annex I Topic 2, Section A, slide 23 of 30

  24. Forests in the Carbon Markets But the share of forestry projects is very low (<1% for the CDM) Transactions with projects (forest and non-forest) are growing fast Reasons: no connection with CDM-ETS, delay in forest-related CDM decisions, lack of awareness of markets, complexity of CDM rules (Capoor & Ambrosi, 2007) Topic 2, Section A, slide 24 of 30

  25. Voluntary Markets • Comparative advantage for forestry projects • 37% of transactions are with forestry projects (Hamilton et al., 2007) • Survey on 71 brokers (Gardette et Locatelli 2007) • 61% deal with forestry projects • 24% exclusively with forestry projects • No restrictions on activity types • Avoided Deforestation, Reforestation, Agroforestry… • No well-defined modalities • But standards are emerging • Climate, Community, Biodiversity (CCB) • Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) Topic 2, Section A, slide 25 of 30

  26. References • General documents on climate change • Huq, S. and Toulmin, C. 2006 Three eras of climate change. IISD. • Joanna, Depledge. 2005 The organization of international negotiations: constructing the climate change regime. Earthscan. • National Academy of Science. 2008 Understanding and responding to climate change. http://dels.nas.edu/basc/ • OECD. 2008.OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030. http://www.oecd.org/document/20/0,3343,en_2649_34305_39676628_1_1_1_37465,00.html • The Stern Review. 2007 The Economics of Climate Change. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm • UNFCCC. 2004 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: The First Ten Years. • IPCC • IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. 2007 Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf • Working Group I Report "The Physical Science Basis". http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm • Working Group II Report "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm • Working Group III Report "Mitigation of Climate Change". http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg3.htm Topic 2, Section A, slide 26 of 30

  27. The Clean Development Mechanism • Cd4Cdm. 2004a CDM Information and Guidebook. Second Edition. UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark. www.cd4cdm.org • Cd4Cdm. 2004b CDM Sustainable Development Impacts. UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark. www.cd4cdm.org • Cd4Cdm. 2005a Clean Development Mechanism PDD Guidebook: Navigating the Pitfalls. UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark. www.cd4cdm.org • Cd4Cdm. 2005b Baseline Methodologies for Clean Development Mechanism Projects: a Guidebook. UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark. www.cd4cdm.org • Executive Board. 2005 Tool for the demonstration and assessment of additionality in A/R CDM project activities. Report of the 21st meeting of the CDM Executive Board, Sept. 2005, Annex 16. http://cdm.unfccc.int/EB • Jung, M. 2004 The History of Sinks – An Analysis of Negotiating Positions in the Climate Regime. HWWA. Discussion Paper 293. • Methodologies for AR CDM Projects. http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/ARmethodologies/approved_ar.html • Pearson, T., Walker, S. and Brown, S. 2006 Guidebook for the Formulation of Afforestation and Reforestation Projects under the Clean Development Mechanism. ITTO Technical Series 25. International Tropical Timber Organization, Yokohama, Japan. www.itto.or.jp Topic 2, Section A, slide 27 of 30

  28. REDD • Brown et al. 2006 Can payments for avoided deforestation to tackle climate change also benefit the poor? ODI Forestry Briefing. www.odi.org.uk/publications/forestry-briefings.asp • Grieg-Gran, M. 2006 The Cost of Avoiding Deforestation—Report Prepared for the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change. IIED, London. 20p. • Kremen, C. et al. 2000 Economic incentives for rain forest conservation across scales. Science 288: 1828-1832. • Luttrell et al. 2007 The implications of carbon financing for pro-poor community forestry. ODI Forestry Briefing. www.odi.org.uk/publications/forestry-briefings.asp • Peskett, L. and Harkin, Z. 2007 Risk and responsibility in Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation. ODI Forestry Briefing. www.odi.org.uk/publications/forestry-briefings.asp • Rubio Alvarado, L.R. and Wertz-Kanounnikoff, S. 2007 Why are we seeing REDD? An analysis of the international debate on reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries. IDDRI. www.iddri.org • Santilli, M. et al. 2005 Tropical deforestation and the Kyoto Protocol. Climatic Change 71:267-276. • Schlamadinger, B. 2007 Options for including land use in a climate agreement post-2012: improving the Kyoto Protocol approach. Environmental Science and Policy 10: 295-305. • UNFCCC. 2006 Issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries and recommendations on any further process - submissions by Parties. 122p. • UNFCCC. 2007 Report on the second workshop on reduction emissions from deforestation in developing countries, FCC/SBSTA/2007/3 du 17 avril 2007. 18p. • UNFCCC. 2007 Views on the range of topics and others relevant information relating to reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries, submissions by Parties. 109p. Topic 2, Section A, slide 28 of 30

  29. Carbon markets • Bosquet, B. 2006 The Market for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry: the BioCarbon Fund. The World Bank-UNESCO-ProNatura International Forum, March 15, 2006. http://www.unesco.org/mab/climat/bioCarbonFiles/Bosquet.pdf • Capoor, K. and Ambrosi, P. 2007 State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2007. Carbon Finance Business. World Bank, Washington DC. www.carbonfinance.org • Harris, E. 2006 The voluntary Carbon Market: current & future market status, and implications for development benefits. Working paper, round table discussion: Can voluntary carbon offset assist development? IIED. • Neeff, T. and Henders, S. 2006 Guidebook to Markets and Commercialization of Forestry CDM Projects. Ecosecurities Consult, Report for FORMA project, Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza (CATIE), Turrialba, Costa Rica. www.proyectoforma.com • Peskett et al. 2006 Making Voluntary Carbon Markets Work for the Poor: The case of forestry offsets. ODI Forestry Briefing. www.odi.org.uk/publications/forestry-briefings.asp • Peskett et al. 2007 Can standards for voluntary carbon offsets ensure development benefits? ODI Forestry Briefing. www.odi.org.uk/publications/forestry-briefings.asp • Taiyab, N. 2006 Exploring the market for voluntary carbon offsets. IIED. 42p. • Walker, S.M., Pearson, T.R.H., Munishi, P. and Petrova, S. 2008 Carbon market opportunities for the forestry sector of Africa. Winrock International. FAO African Forestry. www.fao.org • World Bank. 2006 Carbon Finance at the World Bank, Carbon finance for sustainable development - rapport 2006. 88p. www.carbonfinance.org Topic 2, Section A, slide 29 of 30

  30. Thank you for your attention

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