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SESSION 1. Today’s Vision - Tomorrow’s Reality. A Refiner’s Perspective. Session Presenter. Rich Marcogliese Executive VP and COO Valero Energy Corporation. ECC Discussion Points. Valero Background Changing U.S. Refining Industry Environment U.S. Gasoline Supply/Demand
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SESSION 1 Today’s Vision - Tomorrow’s Reality A Refiner’s Perspective Session Presenter Rich MarcoglieseExecutive VP and COO Valero Energy Corporation
ECC Discussion Points • Valero Background • Changing U.S. Refining Industry Environment • U.S. Gasoline Supply/Demand • World Diesel Supply/Demand • World Refining Outlook • Valero Growth Strategies • ECC Challenges
History of Growth through Acquisition • 1980 - Intra-state natural gas pipeline company • 1983 - One refinery in Corpus Christi • 1996 - Refinery acquisition strategy set • 2005 - North America’s largest refiner • Successful acquisitions and integration • Now ~15% of U.S. capacity 3.3 million BPD Throughput Capacity (MBPD) 170,000 BPD Acquired From
North American Operations • Quebec, Canada • 260,000 bpd capacity • Benicia, California • 170,000 bpd capacity • Paulsboro, New Jersey • 195,000 bpd capacity • Wilmington, California • 135,000 bpd capacity • Delaware City, Delaware • 210,000 bpd capacity • McKee, Texas • 170,000 bpd capacity • Memphis, Tennessee • 195,000 bpd capacity • Three Rivers, Texas • 100,000 bpd capacity « • Ardmore, Oklahoma • 90,000 bpd capacity Valero Marketing Presence • Corpus Christi, Texas • 315,000 bpd capacity • St. Charles, Louisiana • 250,000 bpd capacity Retail & Branded Wholesale Presence • Port Arthur, Texas • 310,000 bpd capacity • Texas City, Texas • 245,000 bpd capacity • Houston, Texas • 145,000 bpd capacity « Valero Headquarters • San Nicholas, Aruba • 275,000 bpd capacity Regionally Diverse, Complex Refiner Total 5800 retail and branded stores
U.S. Refining Industry Environment Changing Greenhouse Gas Regulations Ethanol Mandate Renewable Fuels New Export Refineries U.S. Refinery Expansions Canadian Oil Sands High Crude and Retail Fuels Prices Declining Heavy Crude Production U.S. Gasoline Demand Pressure World Diesel Demand Growth
U.S. Gasoline Supply/Demand Pressure • U.S. demand growth slowing with higher prices and vehicle efficiencies • Mandated ethanol blending increasing to 1 MMBPD by 2013 • Gasoline imports expected to continue at 1 MMBPD • Potential for supply rising faster than demand U.S. Motor Gasoline Supply Outlook MMBPD Source: Revised EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Renewable Fuels Association Outlook for U.S. gasoline supply/demand is changing
World Diesel Demand Growth U.S. Diesel Demand Projections World Diesel Demand Projections • U.S. and World diesel demand growth continuing • Economic growth in developing countries and U.S. driving demand • Global diesel margins expected to remain above historical levels • Opportunity for U.S. refiners to produce and export diesel • Biodiesel not expected to be a significant contributor MMBPD Source: Revised EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Source: Average of Consultant Projections Refinery Investments Needed to Increase Diesel Production
World Refining Outlook World Refining Capacity and Demand Projections Reliance Jamnagar New Crude Complex, India • Worldwide refining capacity growth may exceed product demand growth • Large scale export refineries being built (Reliance, Kuwait Al-Zour, Saudi Aramco) • Several large U.S. refining expansions underway (Motiva, Marathon, Valero) • World competition for engineering, fabrication, and construction resources MMBPD Source: Reliance Industries website Source: Revised EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Valero expansion projections Implies future project slowdowns or asset rationalization
Valero Growth Strategies Expect Record Capital Spending in 2009 Focus on Key Refineries High Volume Heavy Sour Crude Feedstocks Niche Markets Increase ULSD production Inline with projected world demand growth Grassroots Gas Oil Hydrocrackers at St. Charles and Port Arthur Expand Petrochemicals Production New Aromatics Complex at St. Charles Pursue Alternative Fuels/Gasification Convert low-value petroleum coke into power and hydrogen Studying other alternative fuels options Continue to Process Low Cost Raw Materials Canadian oil sands to Gulf Coast to offset declining Maya production Valero Continuing an Aggressive Program of Organic Growth
Project Execution Challenges Valero Texas City Coker Key Refining Construction Costs • Grass roots coker at Texas City built in 2003 • Port Arthur clone set for 2010 at double cost and 33% longer timeline • Skilled labor scarce, especially on Gulf Coast • Owner’s perspective • Engineering quality and capability stretched • More limited shop space and extended queues • Labor experience, quality, and productivity have decreased • Grassroots U.S. refinery estimated costs increased from $15M/BPD to $25-30M/BPD Industry expansions more costly and pace slowing
Issues for the E&C Industry • Recognize the changing U.S. and Worldwide refining environment • Improve labor availability, quality, and productivity • Upgrade engineering quality • Improve execution timelines • Provide better project cost certainty • Collaborate with owners to minimize costs and timelines Refining Industry needs a responsive E&C Industry to help meet mutual challenges and economic needs
Safe Harbor Statement Statements contained in this presentation that state the Company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward–looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The words "believe," "expect," "should," "estimates," and other similar expressions identify forward–looking statements. It is important to note that actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward–looking statements. For more information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or forecasted, see Valero’s annual reports on Form 10‑K and quarterly reports on Form 10‑Q, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and available on Valero’s website at www.valero.com.