Heleen de Coninck Technical Support Unit IPCC WG III (Mitigation) Trondheim, October 26th, 2004

1. Carbon dioxide capture and storage in a climate change perspectiveThe current state of insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Heleen de Coninck Technical Support Unit IPCC WG III (Mitigation) Trondheim, October 26th, 2004 OSPAR Workshop: The Environmental Impact of Placement of Carbon Dioxide in Geological Structures in the Maritime Area

2. About IPCC Established by WMO and UNEP 1988: • Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information on climate change, impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation • Publication of reports • No research, no monitoring, no recommendations • Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive • Extensive review processes of its reports • Support to UNFCCC

3. Co-ordination SR on CO2 capture and storage About IPCC: organisation Co-chairs WGIII: Ogunlade Davidson (Sierra Leone) & Bert Metz (Netherlands)

4. Why are IPCC publicationsso influential? • World-wide effort to gather and combine all views and information on climate change • Broad involvement of scientists • Extensive review process • Based on consensus - if no consensus reached, all opinions to be reflected in report • Report: owned by authors • Summary for Policymakers (SPM): owned by governments

5. Convincing evidence… Source: IPCC TAR, 2001

6. temperature rise (°C) …that the climate is changing… Source: IPCC TAR, 2001

7. … and impacts seem inevitable I: Unique and threatened systems II: Extreme climate events III: Distribution IV: Aggregate impacts V: Large-scale discontinuities Source: IPCC TAR, 2001

8. Impacts of CO2 emissions and climate change • Temperature rise • Changing precipitation patterns; flooding; landslides • Sea level rise • Melting of glaciers • Ecological consequences • Consequence for farming, especially in developing countries • Slow acidification of the oceans by take-up of atmospheric CO2

9. What can be done? • Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations at levels of 450 ppmv (or 550, 650, 750?) • Reduction of emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases • Fossil fuel combustion main cause of CO2 emissions • World energy supply likely to remain dominated by fossil fuels until at least 2050

10. What can be done? Source: IPCC TAR, 2001

11. What can be done? • Energy efficiency • Decarbonisation • energy sources • CO2 capture and storage • Biological carbon sequestration • Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

12. What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2? IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001): a “new mitigation technology” • “Serious mitigation option” • Capacity not restraining (~ 5700 GtCO2) • Costs are estimated competitive with other mitigation options at ca. 40 – 60 US$/tCO2 • Safety and verification noted as problems • Significant cost reductions for achieving stabilisation scenarios

13. What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2? Energy and economic models seem to agree on a number of broad principles: • Relatively small niche market for CCS technologies in the absence of a CO2 emissions mandate • CCS technologies’ deployment accelerates as carbon permit prices rise • Ultimate deployment of this class of technologies could be massive, depending on the stabilisation scenario assumptions Dooley, 2002

14. What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2? Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon dioxide capture and storage (November 2002): • Environmental impacts of geological storage likely small, but not well characterised • Progress expected in the near future

15. What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2? Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon dioxide capture and storage (November 2002): • Literature basis growing rapidly • CCS important enough to deserve good assessment • More attention needed for barriers and uncertainties

16. Contents IPCC SRCCS

17. Legal framework in the SRCCS? • Assessment requested by the IPCC Plenary • Interpretation still uncertain: legal literature not unambiguous • Giving one interpretation would be policy prescriptive • Legal section will be highlighting the difficulties, not providing a solution

18. Timing of the SRCCS • January – March 2005: Government and Expert Review • End of April: last Lead Author meeting • July: Final Draft finished • August: Government Review of the Summary for Policymakers • End of September: IPCC Approval session • Presentation to UNFCCC at COP-11 (November 2005)

19. More information? • IPCC Workshop in Regina: Proceedings • IPCC in general: www.ipcc.ch If you would like to be an Expert Reviewer: Leave your card or contact me: deconinck@ecn.nl