IPCC Working Group III Summary For Policymakers: Mitigation of Climate Change

1. Slides for Communicating IPCC IPCC Working Group III Summary For Policymakers:Mitigation of Climate Change May 4, 2007 www.ucsusa.org

2. Figure: Courtesy of IPCC

3. The Call to Immediate Action Options for Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles of Developed and Developing Countries Policy Structures

4. Global emissions will increase 25-90% by 2030 (compared to 2000 levels), unless we take immediate action. Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change—SPM

5. If the world reduces emissions of heat trapping gases to 50% to 85% of 2000 levels by mid century, we could prevent dangerous warming by limiting temperature increase to about 2°C above pre- industrial levels. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

6. The Call to Immediate Action Options for Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles of Developed and Developing Countries Policy Structures

7. The good news is that there are plenty of currently available and affordable (“low-hanging fruit”) technologies and policies that can level off and even • reduce global warming emissions. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

8. Renewable energy is a win-win-win. Besides fighting global warming, renewables create jobs, enhance energy security, and clean the air. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

9. Technology exists today to begin reducing emissions from cars, trucks, and other vehicles, which contribute a major share of global warming pollution. Growth in the sector will make net reductions challenging, but vitally important. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

10. It is both cheaper and faster to improve energy efficiency to meet growing demand than to build typical power plants. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

11. Bio-fuels have the potential to play a role in reducing global warming emissions from the transportation sector, especially as high fossil fuel prices make these fuels more cost-competitive. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

12. Dirty fuels will also become more cost-effective when fossil fuel prices rise. Liquid coal, synthetic fuels and other high-carbon oil sources will lead to significant increases in global warming emissions. The high costs to mitigate climate change impact of carbon-laden fuels must be considered up front. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

13. The IPCC mentions that nuclear power is one option for achieving emission reductions. However, they note that constraints remain due to safety, weapons proliferation and waste disposal concerns. From: U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Safety & Health Administration Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

14. The Call to Immediate Action Options for Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles of Developed and Developing Countries Policy Structures

15. The costs of addressing global warming could be much smaller than the costs of inaction. • o Based on Table SPM.4 (p.15), for trajectories towards stabilization levels between 445 and 535 ppmv CO2eq costs are lower than 3% global GDP loss, i.e. the reduction of average annual GDP growth rates is less than 0.12%. • o This refers to loss in GDP in 2030 compared to the baseline, i.e. in 2030 the growth in GDP would be 3% less with mitigation costs than without them. • o From table SPM.6 (p. 26), in 2050, GDP loss would be lower than 5.5% and the reduction of average annual GDP growth rates is less than 0.12%. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

16. The Call to Immediate Action Options for Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles of Developed and Developing Countries Policy Structures

17. Emissions from some developing countries are growing rapidly, and curtailing them will need to be part of the solution. • However, the U.S. and other developed countries bear a historical responsibility for most of the emissions in the atmosphere Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

18. Currently, they still have a much higher per capita emissions than developing countries and developing countries have much lower incomes and capacities to undertake mitigation and adaptation activities. • Therefore, the U.S. and other developed nations must lead the world in reducing emissions. From: United Visual Artists From: City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council, UK Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

19. An additional way developing nations can help fight global warming is by slowing emissions from tropical deforestation, which currently amount to about 20% of total global emissions. From: Greenpeace Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

20. Unfortunately, a certain amount of warming is already unavoidable due to past emissions (WG2 SPM). As the WG 1 and 2 SPMs made clear, developing countries will face a disproportionate burden of the costs of climate change. Investments for climate adaptation must be an integral part of international climate change policy. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

21. The WG3 report also highlights the importance of international cooperation in tackling the challenge of global warming. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

22. The Call to Immediate Action Options for Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles of Developed and Developing Countries Policy Structures

23. Standards, mandates and regulations can help ensure that we achieve the emission reductions needed to prevent dangerous warming. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

24. Carbon taxes and marketable carbon permits are cost-effective ways to reduce global warming pollution, especially if revenues generated are used to invest in clean technologies and replace existing carbon-inducing tax schemes. However, carbon taxes alone cannot guarantee emission reductions. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

25. Voluntary programs, while they have some benefits, are not enough on their own to ensure emission reductions below business as usual levels. Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

26. UCS Resources on IPCC AR4 IPCC Background www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html Powerpoint presentations, web seminars, and highlight brochures http://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/ipcc Regional Climate Impactshttp://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/regional-effects-of-global.html Questions: ssi@ucsusa.org

27. THANK YOU!

28. U.S. Global Warming Policy Solutions We need a comprehensive approach that ensures needed emission reductions and spurs clean energy technology deployment. Three Critical Federal Policies: Establish a mandatory policy that ensures emissions reductions of at least 80% below 2000 levels by 2050. Establish a strong Renewable Electricity Standard. Increase Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards and low-carbon fuels for cars and light trucks.

29. Long Term Emission Reduction Targets Must stabilize atmospheric carbon concentrations at 450 parts per million to avoid worst effects of global warming. Means cutting global emissions in half by 2050, more in U.S. Bills introduced by Senator Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Waxman (D-CA) would reduce U.S. emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Both bills call for a greater reliance on clean, renewable energy sources, improved energy efficiency, and clean cars. Alden Meyer (center, second row), director of strategy and policy at UCS, applauds at the introduction of the Senate bill last session.

30. Other Leaders Supporting 80% Target 80% target is consistent with those announced by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and six Northeastern states. UCS’s Peter Frumhoff stands to the left of Governor Schwarzenegger as he commits to the 80 percent reduction target that was later passed as AB 32. \

31. Growing Support for 80% Target Boxer (D-CA) Akaka (D-HI) Dodd (D-CT) Feingold (D-WI) Inouye (D-HI) Kennedy (D-MA) Lautenberg (D-NJ) Leahy (D-VT) Menendez (D-NJ) Reed (D-RI) Whitehouse (D-RI) Bernard Sanders (I-VT) Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (S.309): 12 Cosponsors

32. Waxman Safe Climate Act (HR 1590): 137 Cosponsors

33. Renewable Electricity Standard: Campaign History Senate has thrice passed a Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) requiring utilities to obtain 10 percent of their electricity from renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and bioenergy by 2020.

34. Benefits of an RES A 2004 UCS analysis found that a strong 20% by 2020 RES would: Reduce global warming pollution by 15 percent from business as usual. Create billions in new farm income. Save consumers tens of billions of dollars. Create hundreds of thousands of jobs.

35. House: Reps Tom Udall (D-NM) and Todd Platts (R-PA): 20% by 2020 RES (HR 969) HR 969 Currently has 73 Cosponsors:

36. Senate RES Prospects Senator Jeff Bingman (D-NM) is Chair of the Energy Committee and a long-time RES champion. He will work to pass a stong 15% standard this session.

37. Reducing Vehicle Emissions: Senate Diane Feinstein (D-CA)Ten-in-Ten Act (S. 357): Increases fuel economy to 37 mpg by 2017. 12 Cosponsors: Other senators have introduced or cosponsored fuel economy bills, including several former CAFE opponents such as Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK), Senator Joseph Biden (D-DE) and Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND).  • Akaka, Daniel K. (D-HI) • Boxer, Barbara (D-CA) • Cantwell, Maria (D-WA) • Dodd, Christopher J. (D-CT) • Inouye, Daniel K. (D-HI) • Lautenberg, Frank R. (D-NJ) • Lieberman, Joseph I. (D-CT) • Menendez, Robert (D-NJ) • Nelson, Bill (D-FL) • Reed, Jack (D-RI) • Sanders, Bernard (D-VT) • Snowe, Olympia J. (D-ME)

38. Reducing Vehicle Emissions: House Ed Markey (D-MA)- Todd Platts (R-PA) Fuel Economy Reform Act (HR 1506): Increases fuel economy to 37 mpg by 2017. Currently has 113 cosponsors. Original cosponsors include Hilda Solis (D-CA), Mike Castle (R-DE), and Bill Young (R-FL) to introduce H.R. 1506, the Fuel Economy Reform Act. Todd Platts Ed Markey 

39. Will Congress Pass Comprehensive Climate Policy This Session? Polling shows that energy security is among top interests of U.S. voters, and global warming is a growing concern. Congressional leaders are emerging from both parties, and not just the usual suspects. BUT, Bush administration has yet to support mandatory emission reductions.

40. Looking Ahead:2008 Presidential Election Need to ensure that ALL candidates of ALL parties have a plan to address global warming.

41. Renewable Fuels Biofuels continue to receive broad support, with early action likely to focus on increasing the renewable fuel standard (RFS). UCS is working with both the environmental community and agricultural representatives to ensure that global warming and other sustainability criteria are considered as part of any effort to expand biofuels use. Although biofuels can be an important tool to help reduce our dependence on oil, if not carefully managed biofuels could have unintended consequences. By building support within the agriculture community for low-carbon renewable fuels and for smart management practices, we can help to ensure that the promise of biofuels is met.

42. Renewable Fuel Standard Several legislative proposals to increase the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) have been introduced, with the Senate likely to act first on Senator Bingaman's (D-NM) proposal to raise the annual requirement for renewable fuels from 7.5 billion gallons to 36 billion gallons. Unfortunately, the Senator's bill contains few protections for the environment, and no requirement that biofuels reduce global warming emissions. Although the most contentious issue is likely to be attempts to add liquid coal fuel to the standard, we are working with our champions to add in global warming and sustainability standards.

43. Low Carbon Fuel Standard • Senator Feinstein (D-CA), along with Senators Collins and Snowe (both R-ME), introduced a bill that would require a reduction in global warming emissions from fuels, by implementing a federal low carbon fuel standard like the one recently adopted in California. • This would require fuel suppliers beginning in 2015 to increase the percentage of low-carbon fuels – biodiesel, ethanol, hydrogen, electricity, and others – in the motor vehicle fuel supply with a goal of reducing emissions from motor vehicle fuels by 10 percent below projected levels by 2030. The bill also includes a mandate to reduce tailpipe emissions 30 percent below 2002 levels by 2016. • We will continue to work with Senator Feinstein and others to ensure that our fuel policies maximize reductions in global warming pollution.

44. UCS Resources on IPCC AR4 IPCC Background www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html Powerpoint presentations, web seminars, and highlight brochures http://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/ipcc Regional Climate Impactshttp://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/regional-effects-of-global.html Questions:ssi@ucsusa.org