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Climate Outlook – February 2012. Weak/moderate La Nina expected to dissipate in late March or April. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. NDJ 2011-12 SST forecast From Oct. Correlation ( w.r.t . map average) Glob 0.68 Trop 0.75 Uncentered correlation
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Climate Outlook – February 2012 Weak/moderate La Nina expected to dissipate in late March or April
SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season NDJ 2011-12 SST forecast From Oct Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.68 Trop 0.75 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.68 Trop 0.75 NDJ 2011-12 SST obs anom (deg C)
SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season NDJ 2011-12 SST obs anom (deg C) warm cold NDJ 2011-12 precip anom (mm/day) wet dry
Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast NDJ 2011-12 precip tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.017 (0.009) T 0.039 (0.016) Rate of Return: G 0.018 (0.009) T 0.043 (0.017) Heidke skill: G 0.061 (0.046) T 0.095 (0.073) GROC: G 0.552 (0.543) T 0.580 (0.569) NDJ 2011-12 precip probab forecast from mid-Oct
Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast NDJ 2011-12 temp tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G-0.019 (0.112) T -0.029 (0.169) Rate of Return: G 0.011 (0.108) T 0.031 (0.174) Heidke skill: G 0.073 (0.291) T 0.126 (0.390) GROC: G 0.569 (0.579) T 0.594 (0.626) NDJ 2011-12 temp probab forecast from mid-Oct
Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stronger El Niño El Nino Jan La Nina StrongerLa Niña
very strong La Nina signature in atmosphere * * * * * * * * * Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP La Nina signature in atmosphere
Stronger La Niña **** *********** ******* Stronger El Niño
Feb 2010 Feb 2011 Feb 2012 enhanced trades persist Thermocline depth below average in eastern part of basin ENSO state: weak to moderate La Nina
Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mid- Feb 2012 mid- Jan 2012 Moderate Weak MJO MJO + + Weak/ Moderate La Nina Weak/ Moderate La Nina = = Weak(+) La Nina Weak/ Moderate La Nina
February 2012 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS
Tropical Cyclone ForecastsFebruary 2012 No TC Forecasts in February
Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G
This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……./tonyb/fctbriefingmonyr or ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr