1 / 12

Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction

Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction. Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. Mdl Bias = Mdl - Obs. Bias = MDL - OBS. Mdl. MDL. OBS. Obs. Model bias corrected skill. Raw fcst skill. Distinct in time-mean flows.

kort
Download Presentation

Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Large Improvementin CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

  2. Mdl Bias = Mdl - Obs Bias = MDL - OBS Mdl MDL OBS Obs

  3. Model bias corrected skill Raw fcst skill

  4. Distinct in time-mean flows

  5. Bias for Warm events Bias for Cold events Bias for Neutral events

  6. Bias for warm DJFs Bias for cold DJFs Bias for neutral DJFs Lead = 1 month Lead = 4 months Lead = 6 months

  7. Conventional forecast Verification Improved forecast

  8. Large improvement in AC skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction

  9. Regime dependent bias corrected Conventional mdl bias corrected Raw predictions

More Related