MIT ( O. de Weck , D. Simchi-Levi) JPL (R. Shishko), PSI (J. Parrish) May 4, 2007

1. SpaceNet: Architecting The Interplanetary Supply Chain MIT Chain Management & Interplanetary Supply USA JPL LGO Webinar MIT (O. de Weck, D. Simchi-Levi) JPL (R. Shishko), PSI (J. Parrish) May 4, 2007 Logistics Architectures 2005-2007 PSI Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

2. NASA’s Space Exploration Initiative • Presidential Announcement • Jan 14, 2004 – New Vision for Space Exploration (post CAIB report) • Retirement of Space Shuttle by 2010 • Complete ISS and sustain until at least 2016 • New Human Spaceflight System • Constellation Program • CEV (Orion) 2014 to ISS – prime contract: Lockheed Martin (8/2006) • CLV (Ares I) OFT1 in 2012 – design work underway • Later: Lunar Missions (first sorties before 2020, then lunar outpost) • Mars Missions (post 2020) • How can this be achieved in a sustainable manner? Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

3. Simple Network Graphs Apollo ISS VSE S4 LOP S3 S2 S1 11 12 14 15 16 ISS 17 LLO MARS ISS LEO KSC RSA KSC LAND RSA ESA JAX KSC Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

4. Mass fractions (approx. ) Propellant 93% Vehicle Dry Mass 6.9% Everything Else 0.1% Crew, Consumables, Spares, Exploration Items, Other Direct exploration value is generated by 0.1% of launched mass fixed crew & cargo capacity per launch, vehicles are given (more or less) What to launch? How often? How do we tradeoff between consumables (endurance), spares (robustness) and exploration items (value)? Need to focus on operations & logistics 0.1% launched mass = 100% value CaLV – Ares V ESAS LV 27.3 2902 metric tons 125mT to LEO 54.6mT post-TLI CLV – Ares I ESAS LV 13.1 807 metric tons 24.5mT to LEO Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

5. Future Past Present • Space Logistics Analysis • Measures of Effectiveness • SpaceNet • Scenario Analysis • Current Exploration • HMP • Past Lessons • Apollo • Shuttle • ISS ISCM&LA Project Terrestrial Aerospace • Outreach • Space Logistics Workshop • Publications • Academic Coursework • Terrestrial Analogies • Military • Commercial • Current Technology • RFID Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

6. Supply Class Development • ISS uses Cargo Category Allocation Rates Table (CCART) • 14 major categories • works, but inconsistent use of attributes for classification, varying levels of detail • incomplete for surface exploration (e.g. surface equipment) • Military uses a functional class of supply system + Military ISCM COS CCART Shull S., Gralla E., de Weck O., Siddiqi A., Shishko R., “The Future of Asset Management for Human Space Exploration”, AIAA-2006-7232, Space 2006, San Jose, California, Sept. 19-21, 2006 Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

7. Commercial Supply Chain Design Supply Chain Network Design: place warehouses, consider potential w/h and manufacturing plants optimally, given customer distribution Supply Chain Analysis: optimize for transportation costs, availability, shipping times, inventory levels… LogicNet (http://www.logic-tools.com) Can we create a similar planning environment for space logistics ? Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

8. Future Past Present • Space Logistics Analysis • Measures of Effectiveness • SpaceNet • Scenario Analysis • Current Exploration • HMP • Past Lessons • Apollo • Shuttle • ISS ISCM&LA Project Terrestrial Aerospace • Outreach • Space Logistics Workshop • Publications • Academic Coursework • Terrestrial Analogies • Military • Commercial • Current Technology • RFID Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

9. HMP 2005 • Haughton-Mars Project • NASA/CSA field research station, high Arctic • Study the Haughton impact crater • Terrestrial analog of Mars terrain and science • Operational analog for Martian base • Remote site • Similar exploration goals • Complex logistics network Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

10. Mars on Earth Mars (15S 175E): Gusev Crater, Spirit landing site Earth (75N 90W): Devon Island, Haughton Crater Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

11. HMP Expedition 2005: Overview • Research included geology, astrobiology, space suits, planetary drill, tele-medicine • 56 researchers on-site, 683 crew days total • All supplies brought in via Twin Otter flights • Detailed Inventory ~ 2300 items (20,717 kg) de Weck O.L., Simchi-Levi D. et al., “Haughton-Mars Project Expedition 2005”, Final Report, NASA/TP-2006-214196, January 2006 Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

12. Inventoried 2300 items (20,717 kg) Developed inventory procedures Validated supply classes Maintained inventory over time (for use next season) Goals: Understand, Categorize Supplies on Base - Classification of inventory - Quantify inventory (total imported mass) - Compare with prediction for a lunar base HMP: Inventory Total Mass Inventoried 20,717 [kg] Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

13. HMP: Transportation Analysis Personnel Profile 4. M Cargo Mass Flow 6. F 0.D 0.D 6. F 7. I 7. C 3. R 5. H 1.O 6. F 0. Dep. Point for Each Team 1. Ottawa 2. Edmonton 3. Resolute 4. Moffet USMC St. 5. HMP Base 6. HMP Field 7. Cambridge Bay Iqaluit Yellowknife 7. Y 0. D 2. E Normal Trans. Emergency Trans. Transportation Network Analysis for HMP • Mass inflow per season ~ 20-25 mt • Analysis highlights room for improvement: • Plan for reverse logistics • Reduce asymmetric flight usage • Smooth personnel profile • “Robustness” more important than optimality • due to weather, emergencies, aircraft availability Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

14. Future Past Present • Space Logistics Analysis • SpaceNet • Measures of Effectiveness • Scenario Analysis • Current Exploration • HMP • Past Lessons • Apollo • Shuttle • ISS ISCM&LA Project Terrestrial Aerospace • Outreach • Space Logistics Workshop • Publications • Academic Coursework • Terrestrial Analogies • Military • Commercial • Current Technology • RFID Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

15. What is SpaceNet? A computational environment for • Modeling space exploration from a logistics perspective • Discrete event simulation • at the individual mission level (sortie, pre-deploy, re-supply,…) • at the campaign (=set of missions) level • Evaluation of manually generated exploration scenarios with respect to measures of effectiveness and feasibility • Visualization of the flow of elements and supply items through the interplanetary supply chain • Optimization of scenarios according to selected MOEs • Provide software tool for users (= logisticians, mission architects) to support trade studies and architecture analyses. Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

16. Building Blocks of SpaceNet Building Blocks Put them together… • Nodes • Surface, Orbital, Lagrangian • Supplies • Classes of Supply • e.g. Crew, Consumables, etc. • Elements • Propulsive, Non-Propulsive • Network (Time-Expanded) • Time Discretization, Orbit Dynamics • Processes • Waiting, Transporting, Transferring • Exploring, Proximity Ops Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

17. SpaceNet – Network View Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

18. Notion of “vehicles” is ill-defined Elements are indivisible physical objects that travel through the network and can hold other supply items (fuel=COS1, cargo (COS2-10)) be propulsive or non-propulsive hold crew or not always launched from Earth first be reused, refueled, disposed of (staged), pre-deployed “docked” with other elements to form a (temporary) stack on an arc Major end-items e.g. Habitat, Rover, CEV Elements Element Type Attributes crew cargo propellant Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

19. Library of Elements Carriers “Vehicles” Propulsion Stages STS-Orbiter LSAM Cargo Carrier LSAM DS Progress Lunar CEV CM CM Lunar CEV SM SIVB Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

20. Processes Wait Transfer Transport • Waiting • Remain at same node • Transporting • Move to new node • Transferring • Transfer crew/supplies to different element • Exploring • exploring a node • Proximity Operating • rendezvous, docking/undocking Can model flow of supplies, elements, crew through network Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

21. Moon DV1=3106-3110 m/s, DV2=840-870 m/s TOF: 3.3-3.7 days 28 day cycle Mars Type 1,2 trajectories, TOF between 150-360 days 25 ½ month cycle DV depends on aerobraking Network Characteristics: Time Varying Arcs How to capture the time-dependent nature of the arcs in the network? Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

22. Time-Expanded Network: Example LLO EML1 LEO EML1 [3, 3.7] [1.8, 2.5] • generate waiting arcs • generate feasible transport arcs • time horizon = 5 days • time discretization Dt = 1 day LEO LLO [3.3, 3.8] • Define three static nodes • = LEO • = EML1 • = LLO • Define the static arcs • Define time horizon, discretization • Define allowable transport interval for each pair [tmin, tmax] from astrodynamics Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

23. Exploration Capability MoEs • Exploration Capability [kg • crew-days] Dot product of crew surface days and exploration mass (exploration items + surface infrastructure) over all surface nodes for entire scenario • Relative Exploration Capability [0, ∞) • exploration productivity relative to Apollo 17 Divisia Index ωbk = mass fraction for class of supply k in scenario (campaign) b Apollo 17 Normalization Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

24. Scenarios • With this framework, we have modeled… • Single ‘sortie’ missions • Constellation sortie • Apollo 17 • LEO refueling in Constellation • ISRU on lunar surface • Entire campaigns • Constellation lunar base build-up • ISS assembly and re-supply Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

25. Space Logistics Trade Space Results REC=200 Outpost Campaign REC=10 REC=1 REC=0.2 Campaign of Sortie Missions Single Sortie Missions Constellation Lunar Outpost Constellation Campaign (4 Sorties) Exploration Capability EC [man-day-kg] Constellation Sortie 1 Apollo Campaign (6 Landings) Apollo 17 Apollo 11 Total Launch Mass TLM [MT] Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

26. Baseline Lunar Cargo Manifest • Use SpaceNet v1.3 to generate demand for cargo • Propellant baseline: LH2/MMH/MMH, 4 crew, 7 surface days, 95% LSAM availability • Total Lunar Surface Cargo: 2,752 kg (1,003 kg non-exploration mass) Masses shown in [kg] 676 kg in LSAM-AS 2076 kg in LSAM-DS Crew Consumables per Crew Member per day: 8.325 kg Crew Operations assumes on EVA per day (for a team of 2): 16.4 kg Spares Mass computed with LMI Model for LSAM only, assuming 95%, availability, 17 days, no redundancy, full duty cycle: 340 kg Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

27. Stochastic Demand Modeling A1-B1-C1 A5-B2-C1 ESAS Lunar Sustainment Phase Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

28. SpaceNet Users and Goals • Diverse user base • Mission/system architects • Mission planners and logisticians • Operations personnel • Support short and long-term architecture and operational decisions • What effect will vehicle (element) design decisions have on future NASA operations and lifecycle? • Should a staging area or depot be constructed? In LEO? At LOP? • Are in-space refueling and ISRU helpful in improving performance? • Status • SpaceNet 1.3 released to NASA March 2007 • SpaceNet 2 (web version) under development • NASA VV&A – May 3, 2007 • Credibility Assessment NASA-STD-(I)-7009 Staging Location In-Space Refueling Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

29. Closing Thoughts • To meet the research objectives we: • Studied analogies from Earth and Space • Developed a modeling environment and software tool (SpaceNet) • Fostered the space logistics community • Impact/Outreach • Academic Contributions • Generic Space Logistics modeling framework • 5 processes • Time-expanded networks • Measures of effectiveness • Sparing demand w/commonality • NASA • SpaceNet selected as logistics/operations model for NASA’s Integrated Program Model • Validated with representative NASA missions and campaigns (Apollo, ISS, ESAS) • Supported trade studies for Constellation Program (IDAC2, IDAC3) • Integrated real-world experience from an analog exploration site (Haughton Mars) • Energized a very dedicated and capable group of students and researchers (~25) – a new generation of space logisticians Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

30. Additional Information • Interplanetary Space Logistics • http://spacelogistics.mit.edu • Strategic Engineering • http://strategic.mit.edu Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures

31. Questions? Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures