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Economic and Political Challenges of Acceding to the Euro area BULGARIA Georgi Angelov, OSI-Sofia

Economic and Political Challenges of Acceding to the Euro area BULGARIA Georgi Angelov, OSI-Sofia. 1990s: Dollar rules. Currency structure of export, 1999 Unofficial dollarization of economy, especially 1996-1997. Currency board: Choice of currency. USD or DM?

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Economic and Political Challenges of Acceding to the Euro area BULGARIA Georgi Angelov, OSI-Sofia

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  1. Economic and Political Challenges of Acceding to the Euro area BULGARIA Georgi Angelov, OSI-Sofia

  2. 1990s: Dollarrules • Currency structure of export, 1999 • Unofficial dollarization of economy, especially 1996-1997

  3. Currency board: Choice of currency USD or DM? Strategic decision – Deutschemark (to be changed to Euro when introduced)‏ willingness of Bulgaria to enter and integrate with the EU and Euroarea (as early as 1997)‏

  4. Currency board currency board - step toward entry in the euro area the entry into the euro area - the only exit strategy from the currency board

  5. Negotiations with the EU Chapter 11 “Economic and Monetary Union” membership in the EMU as early as possible Priority of the government

  6. Negotiations with the EU Agreement between the Council of Ministers and the Bulgarian National Bank on the introduction of the Euro in the Republic of Bulgaria, 25 November 2004 “strategy for the fastest possible accession” Maintain balanced budget

  7. Budget Balance, % of GDP More than balanced budget

  8. Government Debt, % of GDP Well within criteria for years

  9. Long-term interest rates • Most Maastricht criteria fulfilled even before ERMII

  10. Euro preference Share of Euro deposits in banks increasing

  11. Inflation • Inflation since 2007

  12. Budget balance 2009, by month

  13. ECB fears ECB was worried because of the current account deficit and inflation in Bulgaria Risk of adjustment Unofficial criteria for ERMII? Bulgaria – not in ERMII

  14. Current Account, by month • ECB fears rejected by reality

  15. Official Reserves • Bulgaria survived the financial crisis • No support from ECB, Federal Reserve – unlike West Europe

  16. Why Bulgaria should be allowed to enter ERMII? Bulgaria survived with no external help – no risk for Eurozone ECB warries proven imaginary Bulgaria fulfils criteria even before ERMII entry

  17. The only country Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 16.11.2009 EC: In 2010 only one country in EU will fulfill the Stability and Growth Pact requirements. Bulgaria.

  18. If delayed? Violation of treaty In 10 years the willingness to enter Euro may disapper (new Sweden, UK?)‏ People will not like to abandon lev Unilateral euroization?

  19. Options Big bang enlargement of Eurozone Free ERMII entry and reform in criteria (inflation)‏ Unilateral Euroization Stay out

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