virginia/surveys

1. August 4, 2009 Summary:INTERIM REPORTEvaluation Study of the PWC Police Illegal Immigration Enforcement Policy www.virginia.edu/surveys

2. Project team • Tom Guterbock, Director, Center for Survey Research, UVa • Karen Walker, Research Prof. of Psychology, UVa • Milton Vickerman, Assoc. Prof. of Sociology, UVa. • Abdoulaye Diop, Sr. Research Analyst, CSR, UVa • Bruce Taylor, Dir. of Research, PERF • Chris Koper, Deputy Dir. of Research, PERF • Tim Carter, Prof. of Sociology, JMU • Nicole Fedoravicius, F. Jennifer Jones, UVa

3. Overview • Background & history • Goals & limitations of the evaluation • Broad research questions • Data sources • The policy’s goals and possible consequences • Preliminary conclusions • With summaries of key supportive data • Next steps

4. Background and history • July 2007: BOCS passes immigration resolution • BOCS decides an outside evaluation is needed • Funding approved October 2007 • UVa teams with PERF, assembles interdisciplinary team • Planning phase funded Dec 07 – Mar 08 • Main project: Spring 2008 – Fall 2010 • Interim report: August 2009

5. Evaluation Project Goals • Provide information about the policy’s implementation • Provide information about the policy’s potential effects on the community and police services in Prince William County • Provide a blueprint for future research and data collection by the Prince William County Police Department

6. Some limitations • No solid baseline we can compare PWC with • But some police data can be examined from earlier years • No “control group” or comparison County • But we will soon be gathering crime statistics from other areas • Immigration status often not recorded in police records • Not in other available data sources, either • Direct surveys of illegal immigrants not feasible • Study initiated in a highly charged atmosphere with strongly divided opinion

7. More limitations • Important and rapid changes in the environment • Decline in new construction in PWC • The mortgage crisis • General economic slowdown • Rapidly changing political climate • National immigration policy in flux • Shifts in public opinion • Strong media interest and attention • Therefore: It is not possible to clearly attribute observed changes in the community to the County policy itself

8. We are NOT . . . • Evaluating the BOCS or its policy decisions • Attempting a comprehensive study of all effects of the policy • Making recommendations on the best way to handle illegal immigration at the local level • Investigating particular police-citizen interactions for their legality • Changing the way individual police officers are evaluated

9. We are . . . • Doing our best to maintain neutrality • Listening to diverse groups and opinions • Assisting the Police Department by providing feedback as the policy implementation unfolds • Learning from Police Department and County staff as we do our work • Keeping the County informed of our progress • Planning to use the results of the evaluation in our research and scholarly publications

10. Three levels of analysis Police Dept. Policy Implementation & Policing Community

11. Three Broad Research Questionsfor the Interim Report • What are the Police Department’s experiences in implementing the policy? • What effect, if any, does the new policy appear to have on other areas of the Department’s policing? • What effect, if any, does the new policy appear to have on members of the Prince William County community?

12. Methods and data sources • We are using a combination of methods • Quantitative • Qualitative

13. Quantitative data sources • Collection of data from departmental records and systems • Calls for service • Crime reports [UCR data] • Neighborhood services, school data • Planned: Arrest records • Planned: Field interview cards • The annual PWC Citizen Survey • Including new questions about the policy • Survey of police officers in Fall of 2008

14. Qualitative data sources • Focus groups • Police officers at various levels • Criminal Alien Unit • “Key informant” and stakeholder interviews • County Board, County staff • Community groups on all sides • Immigrants (through churches) • Business leaders • Observation • At the jail • “Ride-alongs” with patrol officers

15. Multiple Policy Goals: • Improve public safety; • Reduce the number of illegal immigrants in the county; • Save money by delivering fewer services to illegal immigrants; and • Reduce neighborhood overcrowding and public disorder, • such as loitering at day labor sites and public intoxication.

16. Possible other consequences? • Create fear and a sense of being unwelcome among immigrants in general; • Cause immigrants (including legal immigrants) to leave the county; and • Result in lower crime reporting and greater victimization among immigrants.

17. Preliminary Conclusions

18. Large, rapid demographic change in the County 2000-2006 Once started, action by the BOCS was speedy Very public controversy over the policy Prominently featured in local and regional media The publicity and public conflict may have had as much effect on the immigrant community as the policy itself BOCS gave tight deadlines for implementation of this major policy change Police and County staff had 60 – 90 days to develop details Policy was modified by BOCS in April 2008 Changed to cover only those physically arrested A Contentious Processof Policy Formulation

19. 2. Smooth Implementation by the Police Department • PWCPD prepared carefully, consulted with legal counsel, developed training materials • Every officer trained before policy went into effect (Jan – Feb 2008) • 4,884 officer-hours devoted to this training • All were re-trained for policy revision, May 2008 • 500 officer-hours • Criminal Alien Unit created, trained in 287g program

20. Officer Survey shows:Effective training Officer survey Fall 2008, N=379

21. PWCPD Community Outreach • Board directed extensive community education • Particularly with minority groups • Over 100 meetings with community groups & media • Most attended by Chief Deane • Meetings with over 300 County employees • Pamphlets and media coverage • Emphasizing: • Focus on those who commit crimes • Protection for crime victims and those who report crime • No racial profiling

22. Contacts with Suspected Illegal Immigrants • Over 1,000 contacts March – December 2008 • More frequent contacts under original policy • Few contacts while policy was suspended (May) • Average of 106 contacts per month, June – December • Under the current policy, 68% of contacts with illegal immigrants resulted in an arrest • 98% of suspected illegal immigrants were confirmed to be illegal

23. More Officer Survey Results • 63% of officers had questioned at least one person about their immigration status • Officers felt well prepared for these encounters • 84.2% said the training was helpful • 96.1% felt confident about handling these • Few problems reported with implementation of the policy • No racial profiling lawsuits so far • Revised policy somewhat easier to implement than the original

24. More Officer Survey Results Officer survey Fall 2008, N=379

25. More Officer Survey Results Officer survey Fall 2008, N=379

26. 3. Effects on Crime Show:Mixed indications • Illegal immigrants were just 3-5% of those arrested for crime (Mar – Dec 2008). • PERF analyzed PWCPD ‘calls for service’ data for past ten years • Several types of crime and disorder calls have declined significantly (-2% to -11%) since policy went into effect • Calls about violent crime are down by -9% to -11% • Less crime . . . Or less reporting? • Citizen survey (2008) shows no difference in crime reporting rate between Hispanics and others

27. Effects on crime, continued . . . • Crime statistics from PWCPD show a 36% decline in aggravated assaults in 2008 • But illegal immigrants are just 3% of those arrested for this type of crime • The policy may have contributed to reductions in some forms of crime and disorder, including violent crime. • But violent crime is down slightly across the region • The policy is a reasonable way of targeting serious offenders who are illegal immigrants.

28. 4. Large-Scale ImplementationWould be Challenging • In the first eight months of the policy, 76% of arrests of illegal immigrants were for: • Public drunkenness • Driving without a license • DUI • ICE has struggled to keep up with flow of persons detained by PWC for immigration violations. • It would not be possible for ICE to keep up if many localities adopted a similar policy

29. 5. Most Residents Satisfied withImplementation & Police Lower Satisfaction among Hispanics

30. New question about police execution of the immigration policy • “The Prince William County Board of County Supervisors recently ordered the Department of Police to be more active in checking the citizenship or immigration status of people, to see if they are in violation of federal immigration law. How satisfied are you with the job the Police Department is doing in carrying out this policy?” • If R SAYS OPPOSED TO POLICY, SAY: “We realize that opinions are divided on the policy. Would you be able to rate the job the police department is doing in carrying out the policy?” • IF INSISTS THAT CANNOT RATE: SELECT “DECLINES TO RATE (VOLUNTEERED).”

31. Question about police execution of the new policy • IF SAYS POLICY CHANGED: “In July 2007, the Board ordered the Dept of Police to inquire into the citizenship or immigration status of detained persons when they are stopped and there's probable cause to believe the person is in violation of federal immigration law. In late April 2008, the policy was modified and it now applies only to persons who are actually placed under arrest. Taking into account the old and new policies together, are you . . .” • The question asks about the police, not the policy itself. • Asked of 1,223 respondents in 2008

32. Satisfaction: carrying out policy

33. Satisfaction: carrying out policy Overall satisfaction: 80.5%

34. Satisfaction: Carrying out the Policyby ethnic/racial group

35. Reasons for being very satisfied Base: 427 respondents who explained why they were very satisfied

36. Reasons for being very dissatisfied Base: 85 respondents who explained why they were very dissatisfied

37. Overall police performanceby ethnic/racial group

38. Overall rating of policeby ethnic/racial group, by year

39. Police attitudes and behaviorsby ethnic/racial group, by year

40. PD treats everyone fairlyby ethnic/racial group

41. 6. Changes in the Community Associated withthe Policy

42. 7. Some Immigrants Left, Growth of Immigrants Slowed or Halted • There are no hard data on counts of illegal immigrants before or after the policy was enacted. • Multiple informants, from the community and from local agencies, agree that some people left because of the policy and the controversy about it. • Supportive data (not conclusive): • Lower ESL enrollments in local schools, Sept 2008 • Decrease in births to uninsured mothers • Individuals detained and turned over to ICE

43. More on loss of immigrants . . . • We estimate that several thousand illegal immigrants left when the policy was enacted • Economic crisis contributed • Mortgage crisis • Loss of construction jobs, housing market decline • Growth in immigrant population was rapid and increasing 2000 – 2006 • The pattern of rising growth has halted • The growth was probably reversed • The police policy was partly responsible for the shift

44. 8. Overcrowded Housing andLoitering Declined • Neighborhood services records show dramatic decline in complaints about parking in overcrowded properties • Down 38% from 2006 to 2008 • Residents reported less loitering at day labor sites • But this problem came back after its initial decline • Mortgage foreclosures reached crisis proportions • Complaints about neglected vacant properties went up substantially • Weed/tall grass violations doubled from 2006 to 2008

45. 9. Little Evidence for Improved Sense of Safety • Some individuals reported feeling safer after the policy was implemented • Especially those in neighborhoods that had experienced problems with overcrowding, public drunkenness • But there was no decline in county-wide perceptions of safety (as measured in annual citizen surveys) during the years when immigration increased • And there was no overall increase in the feeling of safety in the 2008 citizen survey

46. 10. Hispanic Perceptionsof PWC Became Negative

47. Want to live in PWC 5 years from now? % ‘yes’

48. 11. Trust in PWC GovernmentDropped for Hispanics, Blacks % who trust PWC government to do what’s right all or most of the time

49. Overall . . . • Police implemented the policy smoothly, with a high level of effort and professionalism • The policy has had significant effects • Some of these match the multiple goals • Some of these are negative for the County • The social costs of the policy were high • Sharp ethnic disparities in perception emerged in the 2008 Citizen Survey

50. Next steps • We’ll report on 2009 Citizen Survey next month • Second survey of officers • New round of informant interviews • More police officer focus groups • Intensive, follow-up interviews • Focus group with citizens on perceptions of Police • Gather data on crime from other jurisdictions • Final report mid-2010