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Severe Weather Climatology and Long-Term Forecasting

This presentation at the NSSL Lab Review explores the relationship between severe storms and climate, extending the forecast horizon, and using environmental conditions to forecast longer. It also discusses past tornado changes and the impact of warming on tornado occurrence.

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Severe Weather Climatology and Long-Term Forecasting

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  1. Severe Weather Climatology and Long-Term Forecasting Harold Brooks NSSL Lab Review February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma

  2. NSSL’s Interest • Understanding how severe storms fit into climate • Helping SPC put things in context • Extending forecast horizon • Reports to look at past tornado changes • Using environmental conditions to forecast longer NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015

  3. NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015

  4. Brooks, Carbin, and Marsh (Science, 2014) NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015 Brooks, Carbin, and Marsh, 2014 (Science)

  5. Brooks, Marsh, and Carbin (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., in prep.) Change in Tornadoes Per Degree Warming 95% Confidence Warm summers-fewer tornadoes Warm winters-more tornadoes Mean Change

  6. NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015 Brooks, Carbin, and Marsh, 2013 (Science)

  7. Long-range forecasting with Climate Forecast System (SPC, Climate Prediction Center, Columbia) “Why don’t I get seasonal tornado forecasts like I get seasonal hurricane forecasts?” -B. Obama, 5 March 2012 Current SPC Forecasts valid same day Each “chiclet” represents one forecast/valid time pair Forecasts made same day NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015

  8. Summary and Next • Variability of tornado occurrence has increased • Warm winter (summer)-more (fewer) tornadoes • Have environments changed like tornadoes? • Continue tool, evaluation work for extended range NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 2015

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