Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

1. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Peter Chen Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department THORPEX Africa Meeting Geneva 8 – 10 May 2012

2. Numerical simulations of the atmosphere “In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.” • Eugenia Kalnay (2003) • From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

3. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries(Cg-XV, 2007) “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” WMO Strategic Thrusts • Improved Service Quality and Service Delivery • Improved delivery and access to high quality weather, water, related environmental predictions, information, and services • Reduced risks and potential impacts of hazards • Strengthening Capacity Building

4. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO SWFDP Main Goals • Improve Severe Weather Forecasting • Improve lead-time of warnings • Improve interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil protection authorities, various socio-economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, etc.) “SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial platform for preparation and dissemination of multi-hazard, early warnings” SWFDP Regional Subprojects • Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria) • South Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington) • Eastern Africa (in development, 6 countries; planned start-up 2011) • Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries) • Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

5. SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process Disaster Management Centres Global Centers RSMC Pretoria NMCs Global NWPcentres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; National Met. Centres maintain responsibility/authority over national warning services, issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; liaise with Disaster Management, and contribute feedback and evaluation of the project 5

6. SWFDP – Southern Africa • 16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, • Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF Since 2006 6

7. SWFDP – Eastern Africa • 6 Countries • RSMC Nairobi & Regional Forecast Support Centre Dar-es-Salaam (Lake Victoria region) WMO • Hazards: • Strong winds • Heavy precipitation • Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) • Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries • Domains: • 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) • 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) • Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP • Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD • National Met. Centres of:Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Ethiopia Started Sept. 2011

8. Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Flash Flood Guidance HWR PWS General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.) Specific Comm. Systems Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) Global Centres Regional Centre Guidance Products (risk/probability) RSMCs-TC TC GDPFS WMO SP WWRP Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Satellite Imagery and Tools Research Projects SWFDP links and synergies SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public Radio; TV E-mail; etc. Media Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems

9. SWFDP – what have we learned? • Factors for success / failures • Credible, reliable, useful warning services • Engagement of forecasters using new NWP/EPS tools • Feedback, reporting, case studies • Continuous cycle improvement, including R&D outputs • Project management (accountability) • Steering by CBS • Accountability of participants (project management team) • Sustaining the « demonstration » of matured projects • Regional ownership (SADC/MASA, EAC), project leaders • Service Delivery and Capacity Building (strategic thrusts) • Concrete results are hard to achieve, or measure • Relations with disaster management, civil protection, media organizations • Visibility of NMHSs

10. SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings • Establish a warnings programme at the NMHSs • Increase lead-time and confidence in warnings and alerts issued • Address high-impacts (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves), and applications (e.g. AgMet) • Verification • Phase in other developments • Forecasting gaps: • Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events • Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) • Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations • Warning services gaps: • Relations disaster management, civil protection, media • Warning criteria, SoP, reach, cultural, quality assurance • Inadequate monitoring, verification • Overall managment of warnings programme

11. SWFDP – Cooperating with Research… incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations … SWFDP and WWRP • Global Interactive Forecasting System (TIGGE) - Tropical Cyclone forecasting, heavy rain, week-2 predictability • JWG on Forecast Verification Research • WG Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h) • SERA – Service Delivery

12. SWFDP – paving the way for the future “ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in … detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather; … “… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble forecasting;” Tell us how to fish Show us how to fish Fish with us - Eugenia Kalnay (2009) Thank you! pchen@wmo.int