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October, 2006

Electric Transportation and Goods Movement Technologies David L. Modisette California Electric Transportation Coalition. October, 2006. Conclusion: Electric drive technologies are a viable component of a portfolio to reduce emissions and petroleum use.

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October, 2006

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  1. Electric Transportation and Goods Movement TechnologiesDavid L. ModisetteCalifornia Electric Transportation Coalition October, 2006

  2. Conclusion:Electric drive technologies are a viable component of a portfolio to reduce emissions and petroleum use • Today electric technologies compete well in markets such as • Lift trucks, with a market share of 60% • Burden/personnel carriers, tow tractors, and turf trucks with a market share of 40% • Sweepers, scrubbers, and burnishers with a market share of 80+% • Lawn and garden equipment with a market share of 38% • Electric transportation growth markets that can have a significant impact on reducing emissions and petroleum use are • Truck Stop Electrification (idling reduction) • Port Electrification (AMP or cold ironing) • Electric-Standby Truck/Container Refrigeration Units • Light- duty Plug-In Hybrids

  3. Electric Transportation Technologies are Many and Diverse

  4. Transportation Policy Drivers Air Pollution Largest Source; 65% of all Criteria Pollutants Petroleum Dependence (95% one Fuel, 60% Imported) Global Warming Largest Source From Transportation; Over 40%

  5. Increasingly, CA is Encouraging Electrification To Reduce Emissions, Particulates and Petroleum Usage • Goods Movement Plan • Climate Action Plan • Energy Action Plan • Integrated Energy Policy Report • Compliance option in many CARB rules • Eligible in most Moyer grant categories Sustaining Our Transportation Future (Battery, hybridization, hydrogen fuel cell powered)

  6. Economic Drivers • Electricity is Cheaper than Gasoline or Diesel • Reduced O&M, longer life. • Initial cost of the vehicle is higher. • What payback will the consumer accept?

  7. Benefits From The Electric Grid • Domestic, petroleum free, multiple feed stocks • Excess off-peak capacity • Infrastructure in place • Reduced GHG emissions • Reduces urban air pollution • Generation only getting cleaner over time (regulations, technology) Source EPRI

  8. Non-Road Electric Vehicles • About 300,000 electrics in CA today • Wide range of electric equipment • large units such as forklifts • airport ground support equipment • small units such as burden carriers • emergence of small utility trucks for ports • Significant market-share today. • Additional electrification through 2020; = to removing 580,000 MY 2005 cars (NOx + ROG)

  9. 76,000+ sleeper cab trucks in California today and growing very fast Idle at truck stops up to 16 hours per day. Off-Board & On-Board options. Truckers can SAVE money. If electrified through 2020; = to removing 360,000 MY 2005 cars (NOx + ROG) Truck Idling Reduction with Electrification NOTE: above numbers are conservative - based on small diesel APU. They would be much larger if based on main truck engine idling.

  10. Port Electrification • One ship = 4 tons pollutants at the dock. • 16 ships = emissions of 1 million cars. • POLA-LB = 43% nation’s goods entrance. • POLA-LB is largest source of emissions in SCAQMD. • Shipping expected to triple by 2020. • If 100 ships electrified = to removing 535,000 MY 2005 cars (NOx + ROG+ SOx) • ARB Goal: 80% of ship visits electrified Navy has used “cold ironing” for 50 + years (San Diego). Commercial examples in Alaska, Seattle, Bay Area, Los Angeles, Europe

  11. Electric-Standby Truck/Container Refrigeration Units • E-TRUs plug in at dock, use diesel on road. • About 4,000 – 7,000 in CA today • Plug in at distribution centers, warehouses or ports, but use diesel on road • 31,000 diesel TRUs could switch to e-TRUs • Additional electrification through 2020; = to removing 400,000 MY 2005 cars (NOx + ROG)

  12. Plug-In Hybrids • HEV with larger battery pack. • Can be recharged from a standard electric wall outlet. • 20-40 mile all-electric range, or “blended” operation. • Gasoline HEV after that. • Large Societal Benefits compared to current no-plug hybrids: • 25% – 50% reduction in NOx and ROG. • 30% – 45% reduction in greenhouse gases. • 45% – 65% reduction in petroleum.

  13. Plug-In HEV Sprinter Van • 20-mile electric range • Up to 40% reduction in fuel consumption • Better acceleration than stock Sprinter • 15 kWh Lithium Ion advanced battery • 120 hp electric motor (up to 280 hp peak) • EPRI and DaimlerChrysler - strong collaborative partnership • DaimlerChrysler announced production version of PHEV Sprinter at Hanover Truck Show in September 2004 • Next Steps—30 vehicle test program, 100 vehicle fleet demo

  14. GHG Reductions from Alt Fuels & Hybrids(from ARB GHG Staff Report) Total CO2 Equivalent Percent Reduction from Vehicle Type Emissions (g/mi) Conventional Gasoline Conventional Vehicles 449 0% Hydrogen ICE (NG-SR) 380 15% Compressed Natural Gas 378 16% Liquid Petroleum Gas 364 19% Ethanol (E85) 344 23% Moderate Hybrid-Electric 319 29% Hydrogen FCV (NG-SR) 210 54% Advanced Hybrid-Electric 210 54% Plug-In Hybrid 20 (NG-gen) 171 62% Electric Vehicle (NG-gen) 150 67%

  15. Overall MPG (gasoline)Real World Testing- SMUD • PHEV MPG is 2.0x more than HEV • 29 trips • Avg. 14.8 miles/trip • Combined City, Highway and Urban

  16. Joint CEC/CARB Strategy to Reduce Petroleum Dependence: Fuel Substitution Options

  17. TIAX Evaluation of “Expected” and “Achievable” Market Growth and related Impacts (2005 Study) • Methodology included 2002 baseline populations and estimated populations for 2010, 2015, and 2020 for two scenarios • “Expected” market growth —natural growth plus growth associated with current regulations and incentive programs • “Achievable” market growth—includes above plus aggressive statewide legislative, regulatory and/or incentive programs • Estimate petroleum reduction • Estimate electricity demand growth • Estimate net emissions benefits (GHG, NOx, ROG, and PM)

  18. Expected and Achievable Population of Electric Transportation Technologies in California

  19. Breakout of estimated Expected reductions in GHG and Criteria Pollutant emissions by category / applicationGHG (million tons per year, CO2 equivalent); Criteria (tons per day)

  20. Breakout of estimated Achievable reductions in GHG and Criteria Pollutant emissions by category / application GHG (million tons per year, CO2 equivalent); Criteria (tons per day)

  21. Conclusion:Electric drive technologies are a viable component of a portfolio to reduce emissions and petroleum use • Today electric technologies compete well in markets such as • Lift trucks, with a market share of 60% • Burden/personnel carriers, tow tractors, and turf trucks with a market share of 40% • Sweepers, scrubbers, and burnishers with a market share of 80+% • Lawn and garden equipment with a market share of 38% • Electric transportation growth markets that can have a significant impact on reducing emissions and petroleum use are • Truck Stop Electrification (idling reduction) • Port Electrification (AMP or cold ironing) • Electric-Standby Truck/Container Refrigeration Units • Light- duty Plug-In Hybrids

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