Global Warming & the Environment

1. Global Warming & the Environment Thomas G. Barnes, Ph.D. Extension Professor Department of Forestry University of Kentucky www.tombarnes.org

2. Generalized Trends • Forests – change in spp. Composition, geographic range, health, productivity, fire regime • Coastal areas – beach erosion, inundation of low lying areas (wetland buffers), coral reef die off, stress on fish & estuaries (nature’s nurseries) • Mountains – diminish snow pack, hydrological change

3. Generalized Trends • Water – change in supply, quality, & hydrological cycle impact forests, freshwater, arid lands lead to increase flooding, droughts, storm damage • Species & natural areas – loss of habitat lead to extinctions, greater vulnerability to alien, invasive species

4. Global Warming • retreating glaciers, thinning arctic ice, rising sea levels, lengthening of growing seasons for some, and earlier arrival of migratory birds • Polar ice decreasing by 8% a year • Louisiana has already lost more than 350,000 acres to rising sea levels • More than ¼ to 1/3 of all land animals will be extinct as a result • Coral reefs mostly gone by 2050

5. Arctic • The Northern Bering Sea is starting to change from arctic to subarctic • Warmer air and water temperatures, less sea ice • The prey base of benthic (bottom) feeding walrus, endangered sea ducks like spectacled eiders, and gray whales is declining • Snow crab catches have declined 85% in six years along with other crab decreases; and crab populations have shifted northward. • Yellowfin sole and Greenland turbot catches have been dropping, concurrently with declines in fur seals and seabirds. • No reproduction in seals (dependent on sea ice) in 1967, 1981, 2000, 2001, 2002

6. Arctic • White spruce declines due to warmer summer temps that exceed tree thresholds

7. US Forest Service Models Northeastern United States • Retreat spruce-fir forest into Canada (more pine and oak moving up from south) • 10 to 50% decline in balsam fir, red & black spruce, black, sugar, red, & mountain maples, quacking & bigtooth aspen, paper & yellow birch

8. US Forest Service Models Northeastern United States • More frequent extreme-heat days • Longer growing season • Earlier leaf and flowering times • Shifts in frog mating season (earlier) • Earlier migration Atlantic salmon • Earlier ice break-up • Less snow & more rain (not soft soaking type but infrequent & heavy) • Rising sea level & sea surface • Reduced snow pack & snow density

9. Tree line in Sierra Nevada has moved more than 100 feet upward in past 100 yrs (you can only move so far up a mountain!)

10. Wildflowers • In NY – found that 6 of 15 wildflowers bloom average 20 days earlier in past 50 years • 1 in 5 species will die out because of increased carbon dioxide levels • 8% decline overall in plant diversity • 2006 study at Duke showed a 150% increase in poison ivy, and more potent • USDA ARS – ragweed increased pollen production by 400% • Sonoran desert studies – 25% of species are adapting, 75% are disappearing

11. Fungi • British study, 52,000 records of fruiting • Found prior to 1950 – avg. fruiting 33 days • This decade 75 days and longer • Mirrors changes in British climate with warmer and wetter autumns

12. Birds • Migrating songbirds • Dutch – pied flycatcher – winter in west Africa and return to Netherlands to nest • When hatchlings emerge adults feed them caterpillars (3 week period when Dutch plants are done flowering & caterpillars are abundant) • Plants are flowering an average of 16 days earlier • No food for babies

13. Birds • Gray Jay (45+ year study) • Algonquin National Park (Boreal – spruce/fir forest) • Warmer winter weather, food stashes rot, not in good condition to breed • Historically birds mate for life, now 50% re-mate) – means more first year birds mating – inexperienced – nest failures • So warmer weather, nest fails, re-nest, get with another inexperienced mate – breeding is in chaos

14. Birds • Study 35 North American Warblers • 20% have shifted ranges northward average of 65 miles in past 24 years • Kentucky warbler may not be breeding resident in future if trend continues

15. Birds • Seabirds – kittiwake – populations declining because timing of food supply (ocean fish) disrupted because their food supplies (fish) have shifted locations • Red Breasted goose – disrupted nesting because of rising sea levels • Tree Swallows – laying eggs 5 to 9 days earlier

16. Bird Winners Vs Losers • Penguins – Chinstrap increase while Adelie decrease – chinstraps like open water (more of because of ice melt) adelie like pack ice

17. Herpetofauna • 1/3 of all 5,743 species are in trouble – example – harlequin frogs (110 species) Central & South America – 2/3 are now extinct

18. Herpetofauna • Western Toad – increase in UV B – egg mortality – because of pond evaporation • Golden Toad – Costa Rica – extinct in 1987– increase droughts – more susceptible to disease & infection • Painted Turtles – sex determined by temp, warmer temps more females and getting unbalanced sex ratios

19. Mammals • Pinon mouse – southwestern US species (just one of multiple species that is moving higher from 1,000 to 3,000 ft) • Pikas – high elevation talus areas where food is scarce – cut, sun dry and store hay – localized extinction

20. Arctic Mammals • Polar bears – arctic ice freezing later, thawing earlier – less time accumulating fat and more time using it – 10% loss of body weight yields 10% fewer cubs • Arctic fox/red fox – snow line recedes arctic fox numbers decrease while red fox increase

21. Butterflies • 35 non migratory European species – shifted ranges 20 to 150 miles north

22. Coral Reefs(The tropical rainforests of the ocean) • – bleaching – caused by loss of dinoflagellate (symbiotic relationship) leads to coral death – caused by warmer water & higher irradiance • 20% increased in acidity

23. Fisheries • Cold water fish, trout & salmon – intolerant of warm water – stream temps increase – 4 to 20% loss by 2030, 7 to 31% by 2060, and 14 – 36% by 2090 with significant losses in south, southwest and northeast • Because the Yukon River has warmed over 10°F, up to 45% of Yukon salmon are now infected with the parasite Icthyophonus, never found before 1985.