Pilot Hiring/Recruiting Trends

1. Pilot Hiring/Recruiting Trends April 2009

2. Regional Airline Hiring • Past • Present • Future

3. Today’s market • The market today has many experienced pilots • At ASA we have applicants with 7,000 plus hours and CRJ type ratings.

4. BUT! • Lets take a quick look at the past.

5. In 2007 and early 2008 most regional airlines had difficulty filling new hire classes!

6. 2007 ASA Statistics • Only filled 9 of 25 classes in 2007 • Why? • Not enough pilots • Why? • All regional airlines were hiring • Most were growing • Upgrade time

7. Great Screening Process • 96 screening questions related to what we are looking for in an applicant

8. In spite of our screening • 35% of the applicants cancelled, rescheduled or no showed the interview • 33% were rejected in the interview process

9. Results of low supply • Some regionals had a 50%* failure rate • ASA had a 2.5% failure rate until Sept 07 • Filled classes in fall 07 and spring 08 but made mistakes • Failure rate increased to 4%

10. Last 6 classes Average • Total hoursMulti-engine hours • 1017 149 • 969 360 • 825 157 • 918 119 • 729 193 • 47658

11. Next Hiring Spree • Incredibly important to hire • A great employee • A great pilot

12. RFP World Contract with majors Many up for renewal within the next 5 years To win a RFP Run a good airline - CF, D0, A0, A14 Passenger survey Cost competitive Must hire a great employee

13. 2009/2010 Trend • “The economy always comes back” • “Expect last half of 2009 to see some improvement” • “Unheard of government intervention in US and around the world to help the economies” • “Fuel prices are down from last summer” • “Capacity reduced” • “Capacity cuts due to fuel prices came at perfect timing for falling ticket demand” • “Even with an 8 – 12% revenue decline some airlines will turn a profit in 2009”

14. Trend - Continued • Will continue at a slow pace • some companies are still hiring • Improve as year goes on • Majors could be hiring in 2010 • But • Watch for another pilot shortage

15. Possible Pilot Shortage? Am I nuts?

16. Commercial License VS Hired

17. 10 year summary

18. Shortfall • 19,000

19. Error 1 • How many of the 89,600 pilots obtaining their commercial license were from foreign countries and will never fly in the US?

20. Error 2 • How many pilots of the 108,600 pilots hired were counted twice or possibility three times? • Suggest errors cancel out

21. Error 3 • How many pilots were hired by corporations that are not counted?

22. Age 65 Rule • By December 2012 we’ll start seeing the effects of age 65. • preliminary results show • 15,000 in 10 years reach age 65 • Additional ? % will be lost due to medicals • How many retire at age 60? • Add regional airline pilot retirements

23. Next 10 Years • “There is no reason to believe the industry will not average hiring 10,000 pilots a year over the next decade.”

24. Prediction! • Within 2 years of the time the major airlines start hiring we’ll have another pilot shortage. • Another key reason for shortage– new student starts!

25. Student starts? • Have you checked with major aviation universities and flight schools in America today? • How many new students do they have? • How many students will fly in America when finished with training? • Flight schools out of business in the last few years?

26. Why the drastic decline? • Exaggerated negative news • Cost of flight training • Ability to obtain a loan – start or complete training • 1st year pay • Repay student loans – 10 to 30 yr pay out • House payment • Chance of furlough

27. What we need to do? • Encourage young pilots – high schools, work as team with majors • Visit and encourage Aviation Universities • Visit and encourage Major Flight Schools • Work with OBAP and ACE program • Work with Women in Aviation • Down time now

28. Share good news • Some airlines still hiring • Economy runs in cycles • Growth after down cycle • Estimated number of pilots to be hired in next decade • Equipment they will fly in the future

29. What a great job we have in the airline industry. • Seniority system • Days off • Travel • Salaries • Fun

30. Encourage students! • Study hard • Stay away from drinking and driving • Stay away from drugs • Be a cut above • Don’t blow a million dollar chance to be an airline pilot

31. More we can do • Improving selection system in our down time • Are we wasting money on selection procedures that are not working? • How do we know they are working? • Do we have a solid feedback loop? • Do we have predictive validity at every decision point in your selection process? • Decisions subjective or objective?

32. Wasting $$$$ ? • How much money is being wasted hiring the wrong employee and/or wrong pilot? • How much does it cost the airline over a pilot’s career when you hire someone who is constantly failing checkrides? • What does it cost when you hire someone with a poor work ethic?

33. Trends - Flight time VS FTDs • Schools are using more time in FTDs to reduce training cost/lower education cost • Will industry stick with straight flight hours requirements for hiring? • Interns at ASA • Middle ground!

34. Trend – Final thought • If we accept the concept there will be another pilot shortage • We in America need to be looking at MPL • Has been accepted and proven overseas.

35. Help • Any figures or thoughts you have related to: • Age 65 • Hiring • Failures in training • MPL • Encouraging young pilots • Direction of the industry

36. Questions? • Captain Dan Robertson (retired) • dan.robertson@flyasa.com • 404-856-1723 • 404-702-0574