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Scotland – Census and Household Estimates and Projections

Explore trends in household size, growth rates, and projections in Scotland from 1961 to 2011. Learn about methodologies, variant projections, and future plans incorporating census data for accurate estimates.

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Scotland – Census and Household Estimates and Projections

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  1. Scotland – Census andHousehold Estimates and Projections Esther Roughsedge, NRS Household Estimates and Projections branch BSPS: Estimating future household formation 16 December 2013

  2. Large changes in trends over the last 50 years (not just an effect of economic downturn) Household size in Scotland, 1961 to 2011 Source: census

  3. The rate of household growth has slowed since 2007 Annual increase in the number of households in Scotland between 2002 and 2012 Source: NRS household estimates

  4. NRS household estimates and projections • Household estimates are based on Council Tax figures. • Household projections are based on population projections, with household trends projected from last 2 censuses. • Included variant projections, including ‘alternative headship’ variant, projecting lower household growth.

  5. Council tax-based household estimates vs 2011 Census • 2011 Census estimate: 0.2% above the NRS household estimate • Most councils were within 2%

  6. Household projections & census

  7. Future plans • Incorporate 3 censuses into the projections, to reflect the changing trends better. • Produce projections from: • 1991 and 2001 • 2001 and 2011 • Combine, weighting the figures. • This allows us to make adjustments in future projections, if appropriate.

  8. Weightings - options • Could choose the weights that give closest results to: • Survey figures on household types; • Household estimates. • Could try to minimise discrepancies between estimates and projections at council level. • Need to be able to justify how the weights are devised.

  9. Any questions? Any comments would be very welcome!For more info, contact:Esther.Roughsedge@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.ukTel (0131) 3144251www.nrscotland.gov.uk

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