OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments

1. OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments Presentation to 28 ISMOR 31 August 2011 LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil ddavis@gmu.edu CAVEAT: Although informed by our presence in USAFRICOM, this presentation is solely the work of the authors and does not reflect official AFRICOM or USG Policy.

2. Our Evolving Mission “United States Africa Command protects American lives and promotes our national interests by advancing security and stability in Africa. We follow two main lines of effort: building the security capacity of our African partners and preparing for a wide range of potential crises. U.S. Africa Command‘s operations, programs, and activities contribute to reducing the threats to our citizens and interests both abroad and at home by helping African states provide for their own security. We seek to enhance regional stability through support to and partnership with African regional organizations. Our planning and training are designed to prevent conflict while simultaneously ensuring that U.S. Africa Command is prepared to respond decisively to any crisis when the President so directs.” … General Carter F. Ham Underlining added

3. The Trajectory • Prior to the “Fall of the Wall” missions were find, fix and finish – or the equivalent • From 1991 – 2000, following Desert Storm the missions were more engagement and multi-lateral oriented • From 2000 – now? Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya • From 2000 – now? Southern Command focuses on drugs and trafficking, Africa Command is finding its way. The mission leads the analysis. Or – we analyze what is important to the mission

4. Things to do for Africa Command Respond decisively; Protects American lives: Defense, extraction, freedom of access, Do stuff! Promotes our national interests: Counter Terrorism, economic access Security and stability: Governance, economics, rule of law, security Building the security capacity; Provide for their own security: Training, equipping, mobilizing, Security Force Assistance Enhance regional stability; Prevent conflict : Support to diplomacy, senior leader engagement, reconstruction Range of potential crises: Natural, physical and social as well as complex conditions • Underlined portions of the mission statement reordered • (colloquial, non doctrinal terms): • Enforcement of will activities • Stability and prevention, Foreign capacity in support of our needs • Disaster response

5. OR Requirements • Enforcement of will activities • Traditional OR tools and techniques to answer questions concerning combat and logistics. • Stability and prevention, Foreign capacity in support of our needs • Not well understood phenomena, non-kinetic responses, social and economic environment, data is lacking. • Almost 100% indirect through other agencies of government. • Disaster response • Well understood tools used to determine logistical, medical and engineering requirements. But traditional OR not responsive to emergent requirements.

6. OR in the U.S. African CommandWhere and Who • J-8 Resources • J-80 Requirements and Capabilities • J80-O Operations Research – All trained OR analysts • J80-A Strategic Assessment – 25% OR trained, others are staff officers • J-2 Intelligence – some staff officers trained in OR • J-3 Operations – some staff officers trained in OR • J-5 Plans – few staff officers trained in OR • J-9 Outreach – only one staff officer trained in OR Source of studies

7. How it has played out… • Initial focus on assessment – • Theater Objectives and Effects are collected against, and a formal assessment process is conducted. • Now changing – more focus on regions than full AOR – recognition of the regional differences • Analytic support to the planners as they attempt to integrate legacy products into the new Command Mission. Not typical OR utilization, but OR skills at problem definition central to the process. This has taken much of the oxygen from the OR atmosphere. • Studies done, under the veil of assessment, on Security Force Assistance in DRC, Liberia, Sudan and larger scale activities in support of counter terrorism – assessment (metrics) frameworks and subjective data analysis. • Some traditional force structure analysis – but of AMISOM and other partners, not of a coalition - as is done in NATO. • Strategic gaming for Sudan and Somalia – building an appetite for more, when more may not be within the capability of the OR resource.

8. What next? • Post Libya organizational studies – directorates to J – codes. Where should things go? • Regional studies: What is meant by regions, what do we know about inter-crisis effects, does it matter? • Refocusing on decision support and not assessment for the file. • More focused planning support beyond problem definition: • Impact of potential activities • Portfolio solutions between nations – where to expand efforts and where to back off.

9. What is needed • Tools and techniques to support the softer, supporting (as opposed to supported) studies: • Software • Models and Simulation • Continued assignment of trained OR personnel • Matching the two! Of course – what every ORSA needs: Access to useful data to support the analytic requirements. Demographics, state capacities, social, cultural and environmental.

10. Questions? http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/11/cartography, 8/8/11

11. Backups

12. http://bertc.com/subfour/truth/night2.htm, 8/8/11

13. http://maps.howstuffworks.com/world-population-density-map.htm, 8/8/11

14. Other Missions CENTCOM: With national and international partners, U.S. Central Command promotes cooperation among nations, responds to crises, and deters or defeats state and nonstate aggression, and supports development and, when necessary, reconstruction in order to establish the conditions for regional security, stability, and prosperity. EUCOM: The mission of the U.S. European Command is to conduct military operations, international military engagement, and interagency partnering to enhance transatlantic security and defend the United States forward. We do this by establishing an agile military organization with a "whole of government" approach seeking to support enduring stability and peace in Europe and Eurasia. PACOM: U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM), together with other U.S. Government agencies, protects and defends the United States, its territories, Allies, and interests; alongside Allies and partners, promotes regional security and deters aggression; and, if deterrence fails, is prepared to respond to the full spectrum of military contingencies to restore Asia-Pacific stability and security. SOUTHCOM: We are ready to conduct joint and combined full-spectrum military operations and support whole-of-government efforts to enhance regional security and cooperation. Public Mission Statements from http://www.{command}.mil, accessed 8 Aug ‘11 Underlining added