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Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target

Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target. Rémi Gruet Climate Change Advisor European Wind Energy Association. Date. Outline of presentation. Wind market status Prospective Wind growth and scenarios Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU Global Wind and a new climate agreement

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Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target

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  1. Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target Rémi GruetClimate Change Advisor European Wind Energy Association Date

  2. Outline of presentation • Wind market status • Prospective Wind growth and scenarios • Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU • Global Wind and a new climate agreement • Additional content

  3. Annual EU wind energy installations (in MW) 1MW = enough electricity for 750 average EU households Source: EWEA

  4. Cumulative EU wind energy installations Source: EWEA

  5. Net power capacity in the EU 2000-2008 Net = installations – decommissioning in MW Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts Power Vision

  6. New power capacity installed in 2008 TOTAL: 23,851 MW Renewables: 13,200MW Source: EWEA and Platts Power Vision

  7. Cumulative wind power installations (end 2008) Source: EWEA, Pure Power (March 2008)

  8. Outline of presentation • Wind market status • Prospective Wind growth and scenarios • Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU • Global Wind and a new climate agreement • Additional content

  9. March 2009: EWEA increased its 2020 target from 180 GW to 230 GW (incl. 40 GW offshore) Rising energy demand and contribution from wind power 2000: 12.9 GW 2008: 66 GW 2020: 230 GW 14%-18% despite growing demand Demand: 4,107 TWh Two decades toinstall 0.9% of EUelectricity demand Demand: 2,577 TWh Accelerating pace: reaching 4.2% end 2008 Demand: 3,380 TWh Source: EWEA

  10. 2008 2009-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 Annual EU wind power installations required to reach 230 GW by 2020 20 18 16 14 12 10 2008level GW 8 6 4 2 0 Source: EWEA

  11. Outline of presentation • Wind market status • Prospective Wind growth and scenarios • Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU • Global Wind and a new climate agreement • Additional content

  12. More wind – less CO ₂ • Wind energy avoids CO2-emissions • Wind produces CO2-free electricity, otherwise produced with gas, coal and oil power plants, which emit CO2 • Scenarios enable projections towards 2020 • Industrialised countries have emissions reduction targets • Kyoto Protocol – up until 2012 • 2020 targets (EU, Norway)  How much of these reduction targets can wind achieve ? Source: DG TREN: Trends to 2030

  13. Example: wind in the EU • Gas, coal and oil plants produce on av. 666 gCO2/kWh • Wind production avoids 2008: 137 TWh 91 Mt CO2 2012: 234 TWh 146 Mt CO2 2020: 582 TWh 333 Mt CO2 • Kyoto Protocol EU target 2008-2012 = 7.8% • 450 MtCO2e per year below 1990 emissions • EU Climate package target by 2020 = 20%  1160 MtCO2e in 2020 below 1990 emissions Source: EWEA, Pure Power (March 2008); DG TREN: Trends to 2030

  14. 20% of the EU’s Kyoto target EU - Wind power will avoid as much CO2 as... 2008 2012 2020 32% of the EU’s Kyoto target 29% of the EU’s 2020 target (20%)

  15. From 2008-2020, wind will avoid 28% of the EU cumulative reduction efforts Wind-avoided CO2 Emissions: 28% EU-27’s Kyoto Target (7,8%) EU-27 2020 target Climate Package (20%) Emission Reduction Effort Wind-avoided CO2 = 32% of EU Kyoto target Wind-avoided CO2 = 29% of EU 2020 target … from Kyoto until 2012 and the climate package until 2020

  16. EU 2020 – Wind power versus car emissions EU fleet - 214 million cars EU 2012 – Wind avoids 146 MtCO2, eq. to  46 million cars  20% of EU fleet ! EU 2020 – wind avoids 333 MtCO2, eq. to  168 million cars  80% of EU fleet !

  17. Outline of presentation • Wind market status • Prospective Wind growth and scenarios • Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU • Global Wind and a new climate agreement • Additional content

  18. At global level - Wind’s contribution to pledges for Copenhagen Current UNFCCC pledges + USA climate bill: 17%-20% of 2005 emissions = aggregated Annex I pledges 13%-20% of 1990 emissions Versus Global Wind in 2020 • 1081 GW installed capacity • 2650 TWh produced  1591 Mt CO2 avoided -22 to 25% Source: UNFCCC Secretariat – FCCC/KP/AWG/2009/10/Add.4/Rev.2

  19. 16% of Annex I 2008 Kyoto target Annex I - Global Wind in 2020 will avoid… 2008 2012 2020 44% of Annex I 2012 Kyoto target 65% of Annex I 2020 pledges (13%)

  20. 16% of Annex I 2008 Kyoto target Annex I – Global Wind in 2020 will avoid… 2008 2012 2020 44% of Annex I 2012 Kyoto target 42% of Annex I 2020 pledges (20%)

  21. USA-China-India – target or deviation from BAU • For a 50% chance to stay below 2°C increase… • Developed countries 25%-40% from 1990 by 2020 • Developing countries 15-30% deviation from BAU • Projections for 2020 emissions in energy sector (Mt) Source: World Resource Institute – CAIT GHG Database

  22. USA - Wind in 2020 will avoid as much CO₂ as 28 % of US pledge for 2020 US pledge = 17% from 2005 levels

  23. China - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy) Wind power can contribute… EIA IEA POLES …20% to 26% of China’s GHG reductions

  24. India - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy) Wind power can contribute… EIA IEA POLES …46% to 74% of India’s GHG reductions

  25. Conclusion • Wind power will significantly reduce emissions, both in industrialised and developing countries. • Wind power will provide for a significant portion of the emissions reductions as pledged for a Copenhagen agreement, with existing legislation.  Industrialised countries must review and raise their pledges for reduction targets  More advanced developing countries should consider appropriate reductions from BAU

  26. Thank you very much for your attention www.ewea.org RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE 63-65 RUE D’ARLON B-1040 BRUSSELS T: +32 2 546 1940 F: +32 2 546 1944 E: ewea@ewea.org

  27. Additional content • Additional Climate slides • How a turbine comes together • Economics of Wind • Wind and employment • Wind innovations • EU wind map • Wind pictures • Environmental impacts • Wind and birds / bats • Spatial planning

  28. EU ETS – New wind power (built after 2012) will avoid the equivalent of... 55% of the EU ETS target for the power sector in 2020 (20% target)1 1. Considering constant electricity consumption

  29. How a turbine comes together

  30. Cost structure – EU Typical 2MW turbine

  31. Cost of generated power 1– Wind versus conventional Assumes CO2 costs: 25$/tCO2 Oil price : IEA2007 - 59$/barrel in 2010

  32. Cost of generated power 2 – Wind versus conventional Assuming increased oil and CO2 prices Assumes CO2 costs: 35$/tCO2 Oil price doubled to 118$/barrel Coal price up 50%

  33. Cost of generated power 3 –IEA forecast for the EU, in 2015 and 2030 Includes CO2 costs: 30$/MWh for coal and 15$/MWh for gas

  34. How many jobs to expect from Wind ? • Jobs in the EU in Wind in 2008 • Direct jobs: 108 000 • Direct + Indirect jobs: 154 000 • Predicted jobs in the EU in Wind in 2020 • Direct jobs: 190 000 • Direct + Indirect jobs: 328 000

  35. Wind Resource in the EU-15

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