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CCB: Economic and policy aspects March 2002

CCB: Economic and policy aspects March 2002. Ekko van Ierland Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group Wageningen University and Research Centre. Marginal emission reduction costs, source: Kram, 1993. Socio-economic aspects of climate change

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CCB: Economic and policy aspects March 2002

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  1. CCB: Economic and policy aspectsMarch 2002 Ekko van Ierland Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group Wageningen University and Research Centre

  2. Marginal emission reduction costs, source: Kram, 1993. • Socio-economic aspects of climate change • Analysis of socio-economic causes of changes in landuse • Cost-effectiveness studies at national and international level • Integrated assessment modellen: Rains Asia; MERGE; DICE model • Analysis of policy instruments and options • Interactions between various pollutants: GHG, acidification, ozone

  3. Where are we now? • Integrated modelling (RICE, MERGE,IMAGE) • Stakeholder: COOL /NOP impact project • Started: • Risk and uncertainty analysis • Stability of International Environmental Agreement • Lacking: economics and policy analysis of sequestration, landuse, water systems and interactions

  4. * Shift from climate change to global change* Stronger focus on interactions and their effects* Costs of emission reduction vs sequestration? * Technological progress and the implications?* Multi/interdisciplinary approaches...... but also monodisciplinary in-depth research New challenges: the context

  5. Carbon fluxes of a forest

  6. New challenges ILanduse • Mitigation options through landuse: cost and benefits • Land use modelling: climate, food, energy, nature, biodiversity • Economic aspects of carbon sequestration: transaction costs, risk and uncertainty

  7. New challenges IIRivers and coastal management • Changes in climate, landuse and watermanagement • Ecohydrological processes (scaling and remote sensing): economic analysis • Socio-economic analysis for wetlands, river basins and coastal zones

  8. Interrelations between environmental policies

  9. Results: abatement cost

  10. New Challenges IIIIntegrated assessment Available: Integrated Climate Change Models MERGE; DICE; FUND; IMAGE New questions: • Interactions with other topics: acidification; nature conservation; biodiversity • How to deal with risk: learning, irreversibilities, probabilities of damage?

  11. New challenges IV: After 2010? • What has to come after 2010? • How to get developing countries involved? • Who are loosers, who are winners?(See VI on IEAs) Methods: Case studies;Scenario studies;Damage studies

  12. New challenges V: Risk Risk and uncertainty analysis: • How to integrate in decision making? • How do stakeholders perceive risks? • How to develop hedging strategies? • What is actually precautionary principle? Methods: Dynamic risk modelling Stakeholder analysis

  13. International environmental agreements • Montreal protocol (CFCs, Ozone depletion) • Gothenburg Protocol (Acidification) • Kyoto protocol • RIO Convention on biodiversity

  14. New challenges VI: IEAs • Stability of international environmental agreements • Coalition formation (open membership) • Internal stability/ external stability • How to distribute the gains of cooperation? • How to avoid members leaving the coalition? Methods: APPLIED GAME THEORY Cost benefit analyses

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