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Summer Spill Update and Analysis

Summer Spill Update and Analysis. Presentation to Northwest Power & Conservation Council (Presentation modified February 11, 2004 in response to TMT and IT) January 21, 2004 Greg Delwiche, BPA John Palensky, NOAA Fisheries Witt Anderson, Corps of Engineers. Introduction.

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Summer Spill Update and Analysis

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  1. Summer Spill Update and Analysis Presentation to Northwest Power & Conservation Council (Presentation modified February 11, 2004 in response to TMT and IT) January 21, 2004 Greg Delwiche, BPA John Palensky, NOAA Fisheries Witt Anderson, Corps of Engineers

  2. Introduction • Analysis of Biological and Revenue Impacts • Alternative Mitigation Actions or Offsets • Way Forward 1

  3. Alternatives Evaluated • Full BiOp Spill July and August • BiOp Spill July and August / No Spill at IHR • BiOp Spill July - August 15 / No Spill at IHR • BiOp Spill in July / No Spill in August • BiOp Spill in July Except Test 50 kcfs v. BiOp at BON / No Spill in August / No Spill at IHR • BiOp Spill in July Except Test 0 kcfs v. BiOp at BON / No Spill in August / No Spill at IHR No Spill July-Aug • No Spill in July or August 2

  4. Approach to Biological Analysis • Starting populations or fish numbers for each stock • Passage timing or distribution of migration in July and August • SIMPAS model to analyze survival rates under each scenario 3

  5. Adult Impacts 4

  6. Percent Juvenile Survival Change of Summer Spill Reduction Alternatives (Scaled to 100%) BiOp Spill Through Aug. 15, No IHR No IHR, No Aug., BON 0 v. BiOp, JDA 30% No IHR, No Aug., BON 50 v. BiOp, JDA 30% BiOp July, No Aug. Spill BiOp Spill Except IHR No Spill July or August 5

  7. Percent Juvenile Survival Change of Summer Spill Reduction Alternatives (Reduced Scale) BiOp Spill Through Aug. 15, No IHR No IHR, No Aug., BON 0 v. BiOp, JDA 30% No IHR, No Aug., BON 50 v. BiOp, JDA 30% No Spill July or August BiOp Spill Except IHR BiOp July, No Aug. Spill 6

  8. 50-Yr. Average Revenue Impacts of Summer Spill Alternatives 7

  9. OffsetsSummary of Potential Biological Offsets for Summer Spill Reduction 8

  10. Offsets Continued 9

  11. OffsetsOther Offsets Discussed/Considered: • Marine mammal management • Walleye management • Increased law enforcement • Habitat improvements, including estuary • Hatchery supplementation • Raised spillway weirs • Dam removal • Reservoir drawdowns • Reintroduction of fall Chinook above Hell’s Canyon • Additional O&M funding • Manage turbine operations to maximize passage survival 10

  12. Way Forward • Distributing analysis to the Regional Forum teams for technical review and input by February 13 (The amended closing date for the public comment period is February 20th) • Need to engage 3 sovereigns and provide opportunity for non-sovereign input • Decision by March 11

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