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Fish and Energy Impacts Resulting from Reductions in Summer Bypass Spill

Fish and Energy Impacts Resulting from Reductions in Summer Bypass Spill. July 16, 2003. 2003 Bypass Spill ( NOAA Fisheries). Wholesale Electricity Prices (Mid-Columbia, Average Hydro, 2005-06)*. *In 2005-06, west coast demand and resources are more in balance. . Cost as a Function of Runoff.

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Fish and Energy Impacts Resulting from Reductions in Summer Bypass Spill

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  1. Fish and Energy Impacts Resulting from Reductions in Summer Bypass Spill July 16, 2003

  2. 2003 Bypass Spill (NOAA Fisheries)

  3. Wholesale Electricity Prices(Mid-Columbia, Average Hydro, 2005-06)* *In 2005-06, west coast demand and resources are more in balance.

  4. Cost as a Function of Runoff

  5. Observations • In dry years, flow costs exceed spill costs • In wet years, spill costs exceed flow costs • Flow costs decrease linearly as a function of runoff • In drier years, spill costs increase with runoff until spill limits are reached • Bypass spill costs then decline in wet years as forced spill increases

  6. 50-Year Average Annual Cost(millions) • Current bypass spill program $142 • Spring only $74 • Summer only $68 • July only $30 • August only $38 • Gas limit at 115% $97 • Savings $45 • Spring savings $36 • Summer savings $9 • July savings $5 • August savings $4

  7. Juvenile Fall Chinook Outmigration: 10-Year Average

  8. Alternatives Under average, high and low flow conditions, compare fall chinook survival using 2000 Biological Opinion spill levels to: • No bypass spill in July and August • No bypass spill in August

  9. Starting with 1000 fish, population change with no spill in July or August

  10. Starting with 1000 fish, population change with no spill in July or August (CRiSP)

  11. Starting with 1000 fish, population change with no spill in August

  12. Starting with 1000 fish, population change with no spill in August (CRiSP)

  13. Assumptions

  14. Number of Juveniles Lost Under Average Flow Conditions

  15. Number of Adults Lost Under Average Flow Conditions

  16. Decrease in Harvest and Escapement Upper Columbia Fall Chinook

  17. Fall Chinook Escapement at McNary Dam

  18. Fall Chinook Escapement at Lower Granite Dam

  19. Uncertainties • Mixed populations • Variable yearly outmigration • May increase adult turbine mortality

  20. Positive Aspects • Affect on listed stocks very low • Stocks affected generally healthy • May help adult migration • May use saved revenues more cost-effectively for fish

  21. Alternatives to Current Summer Spill Levels • More flexible summer spill program • Reduce predation • Increase hatchery production • Less costly passage improvements at dams • Reduce harvest with compensation • Protect more habitat • Combination of above

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