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The Waves of Containerization: Shifts in Global Maritime Transportation

The Waves of Containerization: Shifts in Global Maritime Transportation. Jean-Paul Rodrigue Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA. Acknowledgements.

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The Waves of Containerization: Shifts in Global Maritime Transportation

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  1. The Waves of Containerization: Shifts in Global Maritime Transportation Jean-Paul Rodrigue Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA

  2. Acknowledgements • Part of the background work undertaken with Dr. David Guerrero while a visiting professor at Institut français des sciences et technologies des transports, de l'aménagement et des réseaux, SPLOTT (Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports, et Travail) research unit. • Guerrero, D. and J-P Rodrigue (2012) "The Waves of Containerization: Shifts in Global Maritime Transportation", submitted for publication in the Journal of Transport Geography.

  3. The Benefits of Containerization

  4. Containerization Growth Factors

  5. Multiplying Effects of Derived Demand on Container Transport Peaking? Container Throughput (520.4 Millions TEU) Exports in current USD ($15.2 Trillion) GDP in current USD ($63.4 Trillion) World Population (6.84 Billions)

  6. Concentration of the Global Container Port System, 1970-2010 ?

  7. Long, Medium and Short Waves of Containerization Cycle Traffic A Long Wave Maturity Acceleration Adoption Peak Growth Time (Decades) Medium Wave (A) Short Wave (B) B Months Years

  8. Long Waves of Containerization Let’s ride this groovy wave…

  9. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA )Parameters of Global Container Ports, 1970-2010 Dissimilarity dendrogram for 7 classes Fifth Wave E Fourth Wave D.2 Third Wave D.1 C Second Wave B.2 First Wave B.1 A Low High Dissimilarity Level

  10. Evolution of Absolute and Relative Container Throughput by HCA Class, 1970-2010

  11. The First Wave of Containerization, 1970 – The Pioneers of the Triad Pioneer ports setting containerized operations in the economic triad (North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan). Driver: Trade substitution

  12. The Second Wave of Containerization, 1980 – Adoption in the Triad and its Periphery Expansion of the triad and its trade partners (Caribbean, Mediterranean, Asian Tigers). Driver: Adoption of containerization

  13. The Third Wave of Containerization, 1990 – Global Diffusion Large diffusion in new markets (Latin America, Middle East / South Asia, Southeast Asia). Driver: Setting of global supply chains. Setting of transshipment hubs.

  14. The Fourth Wave of Containerization, 2000 – Global Standard The container as the standard transport support of the global economy. Driver: Expansion of global supply chains. China and transshipment hubs.

  15. The Fifth Wave of Containerization, 2010 – Peak Growth Peak growth and the setting of niches. Driver: Spillover effect and new transshipment hubs.

  16. Waves of Containerization, 1970-2010 Each wave lasts 8 to 10 years. Hierarchical diffusion pattern.

  17. Medium Waves of Containerization I may have reached an inflection point…

  18. Shift-Share Analysis, World Container Ports, 2000-05 A shift in the growth dynamics of global container ports.

  19. Shift-Share Analysis, World Container Ports, 2005-10

  20. Shift-Share Analysis, Ports with the Highest Gain and Decline, 2000-05 and 2005-10

  21. Short Waves of Containerization Am I a gateway or a transshipment hub?

  22. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Short Wave Dynamics Monthly Container Traffic (Jan 2005 =100) TI = ~0% TI = 85% TI = ~0% TI = 95%

  23. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Short Wave Dynamics Average Monthly Container Traffic Share, Selected Ports, 2005-2011

  24. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Short Wave Dynamics Monthly Container Traffic (Jan 2005 =100) TI = 24% TI = 27% TI = 44% TI = 50%

  25. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Short Wave Dynamics Average Monthly Container Traffic Share, Selected Ports, 2005-2011

  26. Transshipment Volume and Incidence by Major Ports, 2007-09 Northern Range Asia – Mediterranean Corridor Caribbean Transshipment Triangle East Asia Cluster

  27. Conclusion: Reaching Peak Containerization? The container, like any technical innovation, has a market and diffusion potential where a phase of maturity is eventually reached. Five successive long waves of containerization. Medium waves and inflection points. Short waves and transshipment dynamics.

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