CHANGE AND CHANGE AGENTS Y S RAJAN Principal Adviser, CII [y.s.rajan@ciionline]

1. CHANGE AND CHANGE AGENTS Y S RAJAN Principal Adviser, CII [y.s.rajan@ciionline.org] To be presented at World Academy of Art and Science: General Assembly 2008 17-20 October 2008, Hyderabad [views personal]

2. KNOWLEDGE……. GALLOPING • KNOWLEDGE generation since past many decades : unusual speed much more faster applications of knowledge to produce goods and services for mass consumption. • Current : 1 Billion Billion bytes 1018 Bytes • and 500 Million Billion A-4 size pages 5 X 10 17 pages • Phenomenal capacity for number crunching, storing, ultrafast transfer, sophisticated mathematical tools for past two decades.

4. CHANGE • CHANGE • CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE • Anything to anythings ‘CHANGE’ is monitored …. Broadcast …. Talked about even without CAUSAL connection • CHANGE …. Advocated in every sphere of activity.

5. EVOLUTION OF APPROACH TO CONCEPT OF CHANGE IN HUMAN SOCIETIES • Early static view of ‘tribal’ societies – SUN, MOON etc. (But they too changed a lot around them !) • More sophisticated religions, philosophies etc Will of the Superior (Highest) Being(s) – but allowed free will for Humans …. (the change agent !). • Rennaissance in Europe, Modern Science …… Chain of changes from Big Bang ….. to life …. Tectonic plates of Earth …. Understanding Reasons for change. (also using the natural law to effect more changes).

7. Early evolution : emergence of CHANGE AGENT • Unicellular ….. to hominids ….. not a single series of breakthroughs …. Hominids were great ‘change agents’ too. • Human innovative capabilities : Giving power much more their weight, hand, limbs, teeth etc. Tools, Arrows, Wheels.. … • Domestication of plants & animals some 10,000 years ago : In a few centuries effected changes of millions of years. • “Fantastic Biological Experiment” Max Delbruck. • Yes now changes in decades in life science – GM. Also other S&T tools : 1945 Nuclear Bomb, Space Flight…..

8. EMERGENCE OF CHANGE AGENT ------ • A product of slow cumulative CHANGES through evolution has become a CHANGE AGENT unparalleled collectively and individually. • What would take Nature millions of year is now effected by the “CHANGE agent” in a few decades for life and non-life forms. Also in some cases boundaries of life and non-life are blurred. • What is implication of this on Earth, living being, non-life and also for Humans ?

9. A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION • EVOLUTION ACCEPTED ….. MANY SUPERSPECIALIST BRANCHES STUDYING DETAILS ….. SIMULATION IN LIFE FORMS …. WE WON’T DEAL WITH THEM. • We briefly attempt here to look different applications of evolutionary approach to human life. • Many books …… several researches ….. primarily quote from four books plus knowledge derived from other sources.

10. A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION (contd…) • Mind from Matter ? Max Delbruck – evolutionary epistemology. Various processes of evolutionary growth of human cognition…. There are many new possibilities ahead • As told by Delbruck “The Stone Age people in England constructed Stonehenge 4000 to 5000 years ago….That probably thought very highly of themselves. Little did they know how much they didn’t know” Gunther Stent who is one of the editors of the book adds • “And – what goes for them goes for us too.”

11. A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION (contd…) • Vilayunur Ramachandran Emerging Mind. fMRI, PET etc proposed : Evolutionary – neuro-psychiatry (The book reemphasizes the evolutionary changes which have given rise to the modern human mind). • Mirror Neuron system – Empathy, Imitation, Mimicking helped 50,000 – 75,000 years a “Great Leap Forward” from genetic to Lamarckian evolution. • Freewill’ what is it ? Excellent discussion. • Implications : Humans may acquire capability to enhance performance human brain – not just genetic changes – may be “neuron engineering” My speculation.

12. A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION (contd…) • Evolution of Human Consciousness by John Hurrell Crook : Whole range of subjects from the biological function of mind to consciousness to dialectics of change. • Tribal groups (essential to survival) …. Biosocial system creating superstructural organization …… Generalisation of human rights (in small groups) to wider target populations : hence growing slowly. • As the result of speed of changes in and around human society YOUNG & OLD virtually inhabit different worlds of thought ……(Also true for youths of underdeveloped societies and youth in developed world – my comment !).

13. A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION (contd…) • Lou Marinoff “Middle Way”…… • Emphasizes the role of “tribalism” even now. It was crucial for survival and progress. Whenever nature and nurture complemented each other well, human tribe flourished – when it did not, they vanished. • Nature bequeaths to human being, a terrible paradox of nativity: Small Social and Universal …… How to diminish or nullify the repulsive forces between one group and another; xerophobic hatreds of rascism, ruthless prejudices of ethnocentrism …. Demonising myths of tribalism …… • Marinoff recommend ABC……..

14. LIVING WITH EVOLUTION… • LET US NOT FORGET THAT EACH HUMAN BEING ENACTS IN A COMPRESSED TIMESCALE. THE WHOLE PROCESS OF EVOLUTION : • UNICELL .. EARLYLIFE FORMS IN WOMB .. CRAWLING .. QUADRIPED .. BIPED .. REWIRING OF BRAIN……

15. WHERE ANGELS FEAR TO TREAD ! • Complexity……….. Complexity……… How to cut loose? My speculations. Deriving some general features of evolution and a few statements aimed at common good. • Much superior level of evolutions of H.S.S. is still conditioned by the evolutionary continuity…… biology to consciousness to group behaviour to sociobiology. • On the other hand, there is a continuing experiment with changes (by Nature) works through human much faster……. H.S.S. changes everything fast. • Above all, human capability with unique brain and consciousness.

16. WHERE ANGELS FEAR TO TREAD (contd…) • 4)H.S.S. has created beautiful images in their emotional and intellectual domains : literature, poetry, arts, science, maths, religions, philosophy, law etc. Evolutionary continuity if not compulsion. They have raised human organizations to a different level…. (Detailed discussion in text of speech) – not only to preserve biological diversity but human cultural diversity ….. death of tribal shamans. • Murray Gell Man : Other traditional cultural knowledge all over …… • Concept of Truth in Art : (Nirmal Verma)

17. In spite of all the great leap forwards : BHASMAASURA

18. WHERE ANGELS FEAR TO TREAD (contd…) • Tension between enlightenment based universal outlook and cultural diversity. • ………..but today it may be related to differences in nationality, language, or religion or to other differences, sometimes so small that an outsider can scarcely detect them, but still sufficient to give rise to deadly rivalry and hatred under suitable conditions.

19. WHERE ANGELS FEAR TO TREAD (contd…) (5) Or is it that the ‘change agent’ who is a product of billions and millions of years of evolutionary change, though at a speedier pace during the past several thousands of years,has no control over the ‘change making process’?At this point one has to assert one’s belief and hope that Nature, though ruthless in her destruction very often, never has intended to make her great ‘change agent’ powerless against ‘self destruction’. (May be it is a blind belief or a naïve hope !). It is with this hope and belief, the issues are addressed in the rest of the paper.

20. HUMAN POPULATION • Sensitive, emotional - often ducked. • Hominids lived, multiplied, died….. our cousin H.S.N. • exterminated about 40,000 years ago and H.S.S. now • flourishes. • Beginning 20th century about 2 Billion …. Can go to 8 • Billion 2020 ….. 10 Billion 2050. • 0 ACE to 999 ACE : Population Six Fold. Percapita very • little change • 1000 ACE to 1999 ACE : Popl. 2 fold. Prcap. 13 fold • GDP 300 fold • 1820 ACE Bulk of growth of Pop. & wealth.

21. HUMAN POPULATION (contd….) • The current increase in population is due to : (a) increasing reduction of infant mortality ratio, (b) increased life expectancy and (c) normal reproduction though now at much reduced rates in many parts of the world. • All these especially the first two are considered as high points of human values as given in Human Development Indices. The reproduction though limited is but natural. Total stoppage will mean destruction of the species in the long run : an evolutionary “No! No!”. • But continuing increase of human population means increasing consumption from nature even if per capita consumptions are brought down. To bring down consumption of energy, it cannot be through energy efficiency measures alone; laws of thermodynamics point out limits to energy efficiency.

22. HUMAN POPULATION (contd…..) • Problems in local demographic changes, fall of youthful population in developed countries and increasing number of youth in developing countries, is another problem of skew in today's “tribal” balances. Also most of the youth in the developing world are not educated and skilled enough to meet the demands of the modern globalising world. These ill-equipped youth can easily be inspired by “identity politics” of several forms, which are but extensions of “atavistic tribalisms” of the past giving a hope for self-preservation. • The solutions will perhaps lie in the evolved parts of human consciousness to think of new models of human transactions between humans themselves and also transactions with nature, and transmitting them to other human beings through oral, visual, textual and other practical forms. The human capability to emphathize and therefore to imitiate and to mimmick, has to be utilised in major forms. • Can media help? Can technology help?

24. GLOBALISATION & LOCAL IMPACTS • Globalisation : Compulsion of economics, S&T…. Changes • But Economic – divide; knowledge – divide; Skill - divide; trade – divide…. etc. Partly “tribalism” in action – also constraints of social structures evolved as H.S.S. progressed in different places…. Pockets of inventive capability in a small period (decades). • Optimistic view : Technology as a Binding forced in an interdependent world.

25. Superrich 100 M 300-350 M Rich & Middle 650 - 700 M ordinary people (poor) INDIAN PYRAMID BASED ON PERSONAL/FAMILY INCOME

26. INDIA NOW & 2020 • Almost every statement about India will be partly true. Exercise in listing dialectical opposites or trying to resolve paradox ! • Vision 2020 exercise (1994 – 1995) : Many better things now – also concerns : in lower end agriculture & small industries – Yes India by 2020 would be much better but with some caveats. • (i) Major concern : skill levels of most of economically active population will be fragile given the push of global changes. So continuing anxiety of economic insecurity for a large population.

27. INDIA NOW & 2020 (CONTD….) • Another concern : to sustain rapid growth would dependon the ability of Indian firms and S&T institutions to create new knowledge capital at the global levels; to own Intellectual Property Rights (IPR’s). It is very low currently. The current author with three other co-authors has elaborated on it in a recent paper to be presented at Forum for Global Knowledge Sharing. • The third major concern is about the governance; due to identity politics and large scale corruption of public institutions and individuals who run them, India has become a very soft state prone to terrorist attacks. The “liberal” elites have paralysed the Govt. institutions thus preventing them from taking actions to pre-empt or eliminate such attacks on people. This has long term implications as the domestic and foreign investors may choose other safer destinations like China etc.

28. WHY INDIA ? IN THIS TALK ? • 16% of world population. • Though slow to change, 100 TV channels in different Indian languages (foreign & Indian) bombard people – messages of changes. • Higher concepts of human evolution (equality, rights etc) coming to play. Also prone to different “tribalisms”. • Way India solves – relevant experience for many others in the globle.

29. WORLD 2020 • When all these developments (and changes) take place in India and in other parts of developing world, the totality of ‘changes’ to humanity and the collective achievement of human being as a ‘change agent’ will be unprecedented in human history. • However biggest question is : will the ‘tribalisms” dominate? Or will the higher human concepts of equality and human rights prevail ? • There are no simple answers. None of the collective human codified knowledge (in science, economics etc) will help fully. Solutions will have to come from much deeper instincts of this highly evolved (and evolving) change agent, the Human – individually and collectively.

30. HUMAN INDUCED CHANGES • Large scale pollution of L, A, S…..; oceans • Excessive CO2 and other gases….. & more • Extinction of many species & continuing…. • New kinds of mutants of bacteria & viruses – what impact on animals & birds ? • Human capability with Nuclear weapons, Biological etc. Non – state actors • Continuing growth of knowledge of H.S.S. about his/her own genes/genetics….and Human brain THE CORE CHANGE AGENT…. Impacts of new “mutants” ethics, morals ?

31. HUMAN INDUCED CHANGES (contd…) • One extreme view can be – So what ? If there is a large scale destruction of humans, animals, plants etc through global warming, climate change, pollution, genetic changes, neurological experiments etc., at worst the current human species may perish. Evolutionary changes in Earth can any way continue with different routes. People with such views can also pose a question as to what we can do if there is a sudden continental drift in Earth or if a major asteroid hits the earth • Some parts of the questions relevant : human ignorance of Earth; very little to do with Earthquake, cyclone etc. …. Earth not in safe place in planetary system • Humility vis-à-vis Earth or Nature.

32. HUMAN INDUCED CHANGES contd….) • Approach to issues like climate change, natural disasters etc can pose some collective challenges to channelise H.S.S. beyond “tribalisms”. • But first of all, it is necessary therefore to ensure that issue of minimum essential prosperity for all human beings; minimum health care for all; minimum assured levels of personal safety and security. It can be a big human cause to work for. • Approach to issues like climate change, natural and major human – made calamities, etc. should take on a global human view. The human kind ought to create new social systems (probably with evolutionary changes derived from the past systems), which can help them transcend their “tribal barriers” at least for some minimum number of items (commonly agreed upon).

33. TASK FOR THE ‘CHANGE AGENT’ The ‘change agents’ may have to be trained to look at collective good rather than individual and group changes which dominated in the past. Will our biology permit it? What do neurosciences have to unravel for us? No ‘free will’?

34. A HOPEFUL END