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Oil & Gas sector

Oil & Gas sector. Consequences of a LT higher oil price. Aymeric de Villaret Head of Pan-European Oil & Gas Research (33) 1 42 13 84 58 13 September 2004. Higher oil price means: more cash more dividend higher Fair Values

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Oil & Gas sector

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  1. Oil & Gas sector Consequences of a LT higher oil price Aymeric de Villaret Head of Pan-European Oil & Gas Research (33) 1 42 13 84 58 13 September 2004

  2. Higher oil price means: more cash more dividend higher Fair Values positive momentum: analysts revise upwards their earnings and dividends. End of May, we have raised our Brent forecasts by $3/b on Long term (from $22 to $25). Fair Values are increased by 10 (ENI) to 14% (Statoil). We have upgraded some stocks from Hold to Buy. No more sell recommendations In our stock recommendations, we favour companies with high growth potential and good return to shareholders. Consequences of a higher long term oil price

  3. Fair Value

  4. Fair Value sensitivity to Long Term Brent price

  5. Oil sector relative performance

  6. Momentum's trend becoming more and more positive... Analysts consensus: upwards revision during oil price increase

  7. Yielding stocks

  8. Share buy-back policy

  9. Shareholder return 03-07e vs market cap

  10. EV/DACF multiples

  11. Appendix

  12. The growth/profitability balance

  13. Production growth 2003-2007e

  14. Revisions to 2005 production targets

  15. AppendixReserves

  16. Organic Reserve Replacement Rate

  17. Organic Reserve Replacement Rate (2001-03)

  18. Life reserves Good ratio: 12 to 13 years?

  19. Life reserves

  20. Orman Lange Bookings

  21. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES SG is acting as financial advisor to Total SG makes a market in ENI warrants

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