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Advanced Topics in System Dynamics

Advanced Topics in System Dynamics. Optimization Ken Carpenter Luis Luna. Introduction. System Dynamics has relied on the use of intuition and experience by system owners and analysts to help design policies for improving system behavior over time

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Advanced Topics in System Dynamics

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  1. Advanced Topics in System Dynamics Optimization Ken Carpenter Luis Luna

  2. Introduction • System Dynamics has relied on the use of intuition and experience by system owners and analysts to help design policies for improving system behavior over time • Most descriptions of the System Dynamics method emphasize the iterative process required to validate Dynamic Hypothesis.

  3. Introduction (Wolstenholme, 1990)

  4. Introduction (Wolstenholme, 1990) The concept of optimization is based on the automation of the manual procedure.

  5. Most common optimization problems • Optimization for Model Calibration • Curve fitting • Optimization for Policy Analysis • Save the World!!

  6. Two Approaches (Oliva, 2000) • Full-information maximum likelihood via optimal filtering (FIMLOF) • Engineering statistics • Model Reference Optimization (MRO) • Non-linear optimization techniques

  7. Model Reference Optimization • Main steps • Define an objective function (Pay-off) • Policy Analysis • Calibration • Define the Constraints (Parameters) • Apply one of the Optimization Methods (Use Vensim or other software).

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