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Scenario Evaluation Tools

Scenario Evaluation Tools. Agricultural and Urban Water Use. Scenario Evaluation Tools. Sensitivity analysis Quantification of uncertainty Informed by more-sophisticated models Can interact with other tools as modules in a “modeling environment”

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Scenario Evaluation Tools

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  1. Scenario Evaluation Tools Agricultural and Urban Water Use

  2. Scenario Evaluation Tools • Sensitivity analysis • Quantification of uncertainty • Informed by more-sophisticated models • Can interact with other tools as modules in a “modeling environment” • The modeling environment would ultimately account for the entire flow diagram.

  3. Irrigated crop area Irrigated land area Crop unit water use Mix of annual and permanent crops Ag WUE Irrigated land retirement Total Population Population density Population distribution Commercial activity Industrial activity Urban WUE Naturally occurring conservation Scenario factors that influence ag and urban water use

  4. Ag Water Use Initial Condition Scenario Crop ET Crop ET  Crop ET Informed by ETAW Model, SIMETAW, CALAG, and other sources Effective Precip Effective Precip  EP ETAW ETAW Consumed Fraction Consumed Fraction  CF Unit Applied Water Unit Applied Water Informed by ETAW Model, California Land and Water use data base, Water Portfolios, and other sources Irrigated Crop Area  ICA Irrigated Crop Area Irrigated Land Area  ILA Irrigated Land Area Applied Water Applied Water

  5. Urban Water Use Initial Condition Scenario WU by Sector Drivers Housing Units Persons/HH HH Income Water Price Employment Urban WUE Informed by IWR-MAIN, CUWA Study, and other sources Drivers Housing Units Persons/HH HH Income Water Price Employment  Drivers Unit Water Use SFR Unit MFR Unit Comm. employee Ind. employee Per person Unit Water Use SFR Unit MFR Unit Comm. employee Ind. employee Per person Informed by IWR MAIN, Water Portfolios, and other sources Unmodified WU by Sector

  6. Traditional Spreadsheet Approach • Combination of single “point” estimates to predict a single result • Can reveal sensitivity of dependent variables to change in model inputs • Based on estimates of model variables • Single estimate of results, i.e, cannot assess uncertainty

  7. Simulation Approach • Technical and scientific decisions all use estimates and assumptions • The simulation approach explicitly includes the uncertainty in each estimate • Results then reflect all possible outcomes. • Decisions can be based on the range with knowledge of the probability of an outcome exceeding the range

  8. Input Example: Crop ET probability distribution

  9. Change in Agricultural AW2000 to 2030

  10. Change in Urban AW2000 to 2030

  11. Scenario Evaluation Tools in a Modeling Environment • Multiple screening tools to serve various purposes • Ag water use • Urban water use • Water supplies • Water management options • Each informed by more-sophisticated models • Readily reveal sensitivity and uncertainty introduced through changes to model inputs. • Housed as as series of modules in a common modeling environment governed by a standard set of rules – STELLA, Extend, Vensim

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