FORESIGHT TOOLS –SCENARIO PLANNING

1. FORESIGHT TOOLS –SCENARIOPLANNING Ian Miles IoIR University of Manchester Ian.Miles@man.ac.uk http://les1.man.ac.uk/cric/Ian_Miles

2. Outline: • What are Scenarios? • Why Use them? • Varieties of Scenarios • Ways of Producing Scenarios • Using Scenarios in Scenario Planning and Foresight

3. What are scenarios? Many definitions – Kahn, Schwartz, etc. Two main emphases: IMAGE OF THE FUTURE – Description(s) of a future set of circumstances, portrait(s) of the state of affairs. “Static”. Date or period may be more or less tightly specified, or image tied to a particular set of developments). FUTUREHISTORY – Description of a future course of events, sequence of developments. “Dynamic”,, often highlighting key events, decisions, or turning points

4. Multiple scenario analysis Common to use 3 or more scenarios: • To illustrate alternatives, indicate a range of plausible developments (not one inevitable future path). • To stimulate reflection on underlying assumptions. • To assess robustness of strategies. • To give insight into contexts and outcomes (intended or otherwise) under which actions may be undertaken, events may happen, objectives may be realised. • To help identify turning points, key decisions, indicators, early warnings of change.

5. Uses of Scenarios Many Uses including: • Scenario Analysis as Methodological Tool • to structure work, ensure robustness of strategies, stimulate and challenge informants. • Scenario Workshops as Process Tools • to allow for exchange of views and visions, provoke and legitimate thinking “out of box” (routine paths), etc. • Scenario Reports as Products • for synthesis and presentation of results – to integrate and check coherence of outputs, to communicate and illustrate major results and conclusions.

6. Scenarios as Product and Process Products (codified outputs) • reports, books, videos. Discursive accounts, summaries, action lists and priorities. Inputs to decision making. Scenarios: to integrate diverse studies, concretise and communicate visions; suggest action points and key indicators Process (embodied knowledge, networks, actions) • forging and enriching networks, developing knowledge about knowledge. Establishing and empowering constituencies for action. Scenario analysis: to recruit support, integrate diverse viewpoints;share & fuse visions, provide focus for joint work. The big question: What sort of mix?

7. The Numbers Game • One scenario - a presentational device, to illustrate a particular future. (E.g. a preferred or most likely state) • Several scenario vignettes- to indicate different facets of essentially the same future - illustration, a tool for elaborating ideas, for exploring the consistency of different lines of thought. • Canonical variations – variations around a dominant set of trends. • Multiple scenario analysis - setting out alternative paths of development and their implications. • HOW MANY – depends on context. Usual rule of thumb – 3 or 4. But some work, e.g. Canadian studies, uses many more.

8. Building Scenarios • Clarifying Purposes, Audiences • Identify Key Drivers • Develop themes, “stories” • Compare relevant elements • Develop “sign posts” • Check wildcards

9. Two Stances for Scenario Analysis Starting from the present(“exploratory”): What next? What if? OUTWARD Where to? How to? Starting from the future (“normative”): INWARD

10. Trends, processes Course of events (future history) Outcome of events (image of future) Worldview Events, strategies Outward: The Principle OUTWARD

11. Critical event path Trends, processes Worldview Events, strategies Course of events (future history) Outcome of events (image of future) Inward: The Principle Critical end-state (profile of future) INWARD

12. A B C Outward Scenarios – Common Approach A common framework for workshop and expert groups to systematically analyse “drivers and shapers”, and to group trends and events is STEEPV: Pathways diverge according to varying Events/Trends • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • Political • Values May also diverge according to worldviews or strategic alternatives

13. May select particularly interesting trends, uncertainties – e.g. where high importance and high uncertainty. Various methods. 2x2 common result. May use standard structure and process drivers (etc) through these. E.g. IAF adaptation of GBN scenarios for workshops:BEST GUESS, best intelligence, extrapolation, most likely; HARD TIMES (major, but not “over the cliff” challenges); Improvement/ Paradigm shift 1; Visionary/Paradigm shift 2 Choosing Outward Scenarios

14. What would it be like? How do we get there? Will world economic development mean: High Growth Profile 2 Profile 1 High Equality Low Equality Profile 4 Profile 3 Worldviews Low Growth Inward Scenarios – Desk-based Example A step on from IAF/GBN: select futures of particular interest to users - not necessarily desirable ones : thus a PROFILE approach, with parameters as outcomes, not drivers or trends

15. Indicators of realisation and progress Background inputs (inc framework scenarios, SWOT, etc) Specification of feasible, desirable future Actions and responsible parties Inward Scenarios - Workshop Example A desirable futures of particular interest to users - the SUCCESS SCENARIO (uses a PROFILE approach, but not usually multiple scenario analysis other than at outset)

16. Scenario Generation & Analysis - Methods • Genius forecasts • Expert Groups, deskwork, with systematic tools • Surveys, clustering articulated viewpoints • Workshops • .. Beginning to see computer support in several ways inc. (a) modelling (b) group support (c) viewpoint analysis

17. UPWARDS OUTWARD INWARD DOWNWARDS “Ups” and “Downs” of Scenario Generation Methods Developed using inputs from large constituency (usually including, if not exclusively) “users”. Developed in workshop, etc., involving at least some users. Small constituency of “experts” develop for large user community.

18. UPWARDS OUTWARD INWARD DOWNWARDS Examples of “Ups” and “Downs” Analysis of survey results to define different expectations Exploratory ………. SCENARIO WORKSHOPS …….Normative Various combinations of approaches… Expert group analysis using “what if” approaches, using worldviews/different perspectives, using end-state profiles…

19. Pace of Change: Faster Slower Results of Change more: NegativePositive 1 2 3 4 Multiple Outward Scenarios clustered from Survey Responses Survey asked a series of questions about how far IT applications and implications would have developed over next 10, 20 years. • Results factor analysed to obtain simplified structure • First two components led to four scenarios, with numerical estimates, etc. IT Futures Surveyed

20. Desk-Based Outward Scenarios, derived from different diagnoses of present situation Where are we now? Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 How much change to expect; how similar to present... Paperless Society

21. Dimitrious - Digital Me Carmen - Traffic & Commerce Maria - Road Warrior Annette & Solomon - Social Learning Workshop-based Inwards Scenario Potential Functionality of AmI  REQUIREMENTS: Sociopolitical  Business & Industrial Models  Technology……… IPTS/ISTAGAmbience

22. Planning Process • Is there a specific issue – or is this general strategic intelligence? • Planning team, drawing on relevant expertise (within and outside organisation) • Embedding scenario work, fostering “ownership” • Legitimate scenario activity as real work • Undermining business-as-usual assumptions, confronting potential challenges, testing strategies • Forging groups to develop new approaches • Creating frameworks for more quantitative analysis

23. HISTORIES “Flow charts” Trend analysis Signposts (indicators and events – useful for scanning) Narratives (press reports; historian’s reflections…) Strategy games – good for analysis of options, plans… IMAGES Comparative Tables Charts Narratives (press stories; diaries, vignettes …) portrait of organisation/ market/ actors... policy outcomes Presentation and communication How to deal with wildcards??

24. Useful Scenario Assessment ~ how far are the scenarios/outputs: • Not too numerous,detailed or ambiguous – expressed in terms relevant to user capabilities and interests • Reflect the range of potential future conditions, challenges, for the topic/users • Stretch thinking, include surprises • Confront the difficulty, ambiguity, and significance of the topic; Scope for thinking the unthinkable, transgressing boundaries, while not triggering kneejerk controversy Robust (not Accurate as such) Novel/ Stimulating Provocative/ Challenging

25. Conclusions: • Scenarios are potentially very useful, but have to be appropriate to purposes, audience, etc • Can make product and/or process contributions to Foresight and planning – and to sharing visions & plans. • A combination of expertise and craft – not magic, gurus not necessary, but require preparation, training. • Capable of being produced in many different ways. • There may be a best way or at least a best set of ways for a given situation, but there is no one all-purpose best way. • Sometimes fun to produce; sometimes fun to read, usually hard work to create (OK);often hard work to use (this is not OK)!

26. End of Presentation Thanks for attention – questions welcome