World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030

1. World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division

2. Global Energy and Environmental Trends - Reference Scenario -

3. 7 000 7 000 6 000 6 000 5 000 5 000 4 000 4 000 Mtoe Mtoe 3 000 3 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 World Primary Energy Demand Oil Natural gas Coal Other renewables Nuclear power Hydro power Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030

4. 6 000 share of total increase (%) 85% 5 000 4 000 59% 3 000 Mtoe 2 000 31% 12% 1 000 10% 3% 0 1971-2002 2002-2030 OECD Transition economies Developing countries Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region Almost all the increase in production to 2030 occurs outside the OECD

5. Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030 Per capita energy use remains much lower in developing countries

6. Electricity Deprivation In 2030, if no major new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity.

7. World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Global emissions grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s

8. CO2 Emissions by Sector,1990-2030 CO2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most

9. Primary energy demand CO2 Emissions Growth in World Energy Demandand CO2 Emissions 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% average annual growth rate 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1971-2002 2002-2030 Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends

10. World AlternativePolicy Scenario

11. World Alternative Policy Scenario • Analyses impact of new environmental & energy-security policies worldwide • OECD: Policies currently under consideration • Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy intensity resulting from faster deployment of more-efficient technology • Impact on energy, CO2 emissions & investment needs • Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change

13. Net Natural Gas Imports, 2030 Net gas imports are lower in all major importing regions, except China

14. 16 000 15 000 2 14 000 Mt of CO 13 000 12 000 11 000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Scenarios OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 – 25% higher than in 1990

15. 100% 4% 5% 8% 5% 10% 21% 12% 17% 80% 20% 15% 7% 21% 1% 7% 60% 10% 40% 67% 63% 58% 49% 20% 0% World OECD Transition economies Developing countries End-use efficiency gains Fuel switching in end uses Increased renewables in power generation Increased nuclear in power generation Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030 Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%

16. Efficiency measures Avoided supply-side investment Difference Generation Additional demand-side investment Transmission Distribution Difference in Electricity Investment in the Alternative vs. Reference Scenario 2003-2030 1 000 500 0 billion dollars (2000) - 500 -1 000 -1 500 -2 000 Additional investments on the demand side are more than offset by lower investment on the supply side

17. Summary & Conclusions • On current policies, world energy needs – and CO2 emissions – will be 60% higher in 2030 than now • Policies under consideration & faster deployment of technology could substantially save energy and reduce emissions • Larger capital needs on the demand side would be entirely offset by lower investment needs on the supply side • Truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deployment • Urgent & decisive government action is needed