CORE

1. CORE Environmental HealthSciences Co-Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Conservation: Improving Air Quality & NJ Health Today, Climate Change & Global Health Tomorrow Kim Knowlton, DrPH Post-Doctoral Research Scientist Email: kmk47@columbia.edu Public Hearing - NJ Clean Air Council April 11, 2007

2. Energy Demand

3. Metro NY City region home to ~8% of US population, including at-risk communities Ozone non-compliance area, summer heat waves Global/regional climate change may compound New York City urban heat island Direct health effects of heat vs. indirect ozone, pollen effects Newark JFK SURFACE TEMPERATURE, Landsat ETM 7 Aug 14 2002, 10:30 AM (source: Geography Dept, Hunter College)

4. CC Climate change and human health: impacts of heat and ozone Certain population groups more vulnerable to heat stress and ozone air pollution Risk factors include: • Age 65+ • Pre-existing cardiovascular or respiratory conditions • Lack of air conditioning, city residence, low socioeconomic status, social isolation

5. CC Ozone Formation

6. CC US EPA (1991) in Kleinman and Lipfert (1996) Note threshold~90°F (32°C)

7. Increase in ozone levels from the 1990s to the 2050s Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)

8. Average Number of 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS Exceedance Days/Summer Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)

9. What might the future hold in our region? CC The New York Climate & Health Project • Linking models for global and regional climate, land use and cover, and air quality… • to examine the potential public health impacts of heat and air pollution under alternative scenarios of climate change & regional land use in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in the NYC metropolitan region. • Funded by the USEPA STAR Research Program.

10. CC Climate change impacts projected in NYC • More frequent, more severe storms in NYC • Summer heat-related mortality could nearly double by the 2050s and more than triple by the 2080s • Summer ozone-related mortality will increase both inside the five boroughs and beyond city limits

11. CC Results: Summer heat & O3 mortality risk assessment

12. Immediate Local “Co-Benefits”: Reductions in Ozone- and Particulate Matter-Related Health Impacts

13. CC Health effects avoided from 2000 to 2020 in New York City due to ozone & particulate matter reductions if GHG mitigation measures are taken (Cifuentes et al. EHP 2001)

14. Under increased CO2 & temperature conditions, increased ragweed plant biomass, growth rate, pollen production (Ziska et al. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2003) • CO2 concentrations in NYC 37% higher than rural sites (Knowlton et al., unpublished data) • Possible local effects of emissions on local health? Beggs & Bambrick Environ Health Perspect (2005)

15. CC Mitigation What can we do about it? Adaptation • Energy efficiency & conservation • Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management thru voluntary measures & government regulation • Rely more on renewable energy sources (wind, solar, etc.) • Decarbonisation - CO2 removal and storage • Biological carbon sequestration • Heat-health alert systems • Air conditioning distribution • Water resource and shoreline management • Wetlands restoration • Storm evacuation planning • Disaster preparedness planning • Revise corporate & business plans • Improve community resiliency