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The ro le of biomass in the UK energy system T SEC-BIOSYS:

The ro le of biomass in the UK energy system T SEC-BIOSYS: A whole systems approach to bioenergy demand and supply www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk Ausilio Bauen Imperial College London. Biomass role in the UK energy futures The Royal Society, London: 28 th & 29 th July 2009. Introduction.

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The ro le of biomass in the UK energy system T SEC-BIOSYS:

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  1. The role of biomass in the UK energy system TSEC-BIOSYS: A whole systems approach to bioenergy demand and supply www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk Ausilio Bauen Imperial College London Biomass role in the UK energy futures The Royal Society, London: 28th & 29th July 2009

  2. Introduction TSEC-Biosys has aimed to improve the understanding of: The UK energy crop potential Its spatial distribution Its costs The competitiveness of energy crops and other biomass in providing future energy services Policymakers, industry and other stakeholders need to have visibility of these issues to develop strategies and positions

  3. Modelling optimal distribution of energy crops and their potential Willow and Poplar favoured in the West, Miscanthus in the East Average yield is about 12 odt/ha/yr Average yield similar on ALCs 1 – 4, significantly reduced on ALC5

  4. UK energy crop cost distribution Significant potential between £45 and £65 /odt

  5. UK energy crop supply cost curves Short term deployment on c. 650 kha  8 Modt Average cost £50.1 – £55.6 /odt; 95th percentile cost £53.8 – £57.4 /odt For a more more even distribution average cost increases 10% - 20%

  6. The competitiveness of UK energy crops UK energy crops likely to be competitive with imported solid biomass – import price estimated to range between £60 and £120 /odt (strongly dependent on international market conditions and bulk international transport costs)

  7. The contribution of bioenergy to UK final energy demand Final energy share up to about 15% in 2050 and 8% in 2020 Strong ramp up to 2020; up to 1/3 of solid biomass could be UK energy crops Bulk of final use in heat (38% in 2050 and 13% in 2020), important share of transport (8% in 2050 and 7% in 2020), small share of electricity (1% in 2050 and 2% in 2020) Global sustainability scenario

  8. The contribution of bioenergy to UK final energy demand Solid biomass provides the bulk of the resource Energy crops assumed to ramp up to a sustainably exploitable area of 1.5 Mha UK resource contributes over 1/3 Range of technologies combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, AD, fermentation Global sustainability scenario

  9. Scenarios vary with environmental and energy security considerations Significant contribution in all scenarios, but with reallocation between final end uses 3 2 1 4

  10. Conclusions Energy crops planted on 1.5 Mha of land could provide about 2.6% of UK primary energy need in 2020 (based on static yields) They could provide3/4 of the biomass resource needed to meet the UK’s RES heat and electricity biomass target Agricultural and forestry residues and organic wastes could at least double the potential Imports of solid biomass and liquid fuels can grow substantially Overall a biomass can be a significant least cost solution to a low C energy future RES proposes supply and demand side incentives to help ramp up But ramp up and sustained deployment needs to be backed by: an understanding of the constraints and risks developments in agronomy, infrastructure, technologies and planning encouraging best and sustainable use of resources an informed industry broader stakeholder buy in

  11. Thank you for your attention! www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk

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