Hezbollah Party of God

1. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 1 Hezbollah�Party of God� An Awareness Briefing August 9th, 2009

2. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 2 Agenda Objectives Lebanon Historical Overview Hezbollah � defined by actions & events Events & timeline Emergence Organization Ideology Political Evolution Threat Assessment Expectations Changing Threat & the Combat Environment Conclusions Take-Aways

3. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 3 Objectives Provide greater awareness on Hezbollah Mandatory 4 � Ws, but also � Who/How: Hezbollah�s Emergence and Sustainment What: Threat Capabilities & Ideology Where: Geo-Political Environment & Path to Mainstream When: Evolution & Future Expectations � what about the Y? Why: relevant and important to us as Professional War fighters?

4. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 4 Lebanon Overview 1946-1974: 50% Christians ? 30% Sunni Muslims ? 15% Shi�ite Muslims ? 5% Druze ? 1974 - Present: 30% Christians ? 40% Sunni Muslims ? 25% Shi�ite Muslims ? 5% Druze ?

5. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 5 Historical Events Up to 1974: Consociation Democracy � ethno-factional appointments: President: Christian Prime Minister: Muslim Chief of Staff of Lebanese Army: Christian Deputy Chief of Staff: Muslim

6. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 6 Civil War and Internationalized CW 1976: Chaos: random killings, factional fighting & refugees. Syria intervenes via secret agreement with Israel and decision by Arab League on side of the Christian Phalanges. Initial Syrian-Palestinian and Syrian-Muslim clashes. Syrian intervention quells violence but sporadic violence continues Estimated death toll: 44,000 dead, and 180,000 wounded Israel establishes military ties with Christians in Lebanon. In Southern Lebanon, a Christian Militia (SLA) is formed & supported by Israel. Frequent clashes between different factions in Lebanon, and civil war resumes 1978: Growing influences: disappearance of Al-Sadr & success of Iranian (Shia) Revolution 1981: Escalation between militias, Syria, Israelis and PLO. 1982: Israeli Intervention & Invasion to: Drive Palestinian guerrillas out of Lebanon Drive Syrian forces out of Lebanon Restore Lebanese government under Christian domination in collaboration with the Christian Phalanges - Bashir Jumayel) Sign peace treaty newly restored Lebanon government/

7. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 7 Hezbollah Emerges 1982: Hezbollah Born Israel invasion puts Beirut under siege & forces evacuation of PLO from West Beirut and relocation to Tunis Bashir Jumayel elected president, but immediately assassinated. Christian militias, in coordination with Israelis enter Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatilla and commit mass murder of Palestinians Israel greeted with flowers � begins occupation of Lebanon and confronts a coalition of opponents: all Muslim factions, Druze & increasing Christian allied groups Hezbollah forms in South in opposition to Israel & begins operations against Israelis, American and French.

8. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 8

9. Events & Actions 1989: On-going Peace process Lebanese parliament accepts Arab-brokered peace accord and Syria assists Lebanon's national army to control the country's various factions. Hezbollah loses Syrian sponsorship but had built cultural and political institutions that would sustain. 1993: Olso Accord & Gaza-Jericho Agreement Palestinian sovereignty in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank with withdrawal of Israelis from West Bank Never took effect due to the assassination of Rabin and Israeli refusal to withdraw. Hezbollah joins radical Arab Alliance and actively fights Middle East peace processes 2000: Cross Border & Operations against Israel Focused attacks on the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Israeli-allied South Lebanon Army (SLA). Hezbollah efforts to end Israel's occupation - cross-border operations & kidnappings. Israeli forces withdrew and SLA. Hezbollah increasingly demonstrates independence from Iran and Syria � even played both against one another. 2001: 9/11 Attacks on US Despite celebrations, Hezbollah officially denounced U.S. asked International Community to freeze the group's assets and register Hezbollah a terrorist organization.

10. Events & Actions 2005: Lebanese Sovereignty Feb assassination of Hariri suspected by Syria UN Resolution 1559 � Syrian withdrawal 2006: 2006 War Kidnapping led to 34-day Israeli invasion Huge causalities & economic impact Hezbollah emboldened by resistance = victory Condemned regionally with disastrous political effects, but greater legitimacy amongst international sponsors/donors. Future: When will international community recognize political side of Hezbollah?

11. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 11 Evolving Threat Hezbollah is modeled after Iran�s model Well-organized with dichotomy of political and military capabilities Powerful cultural and political force operating hospitals, schools, and even their own television station in Lebanon. Training bases are in the Bekka Valley in South with strongholds in the southern and western suburbs of Beirut. Active armed members are estimated around 1000, and the group has wide-reaching support among Lebanon's Shi'ite population. Legitimate powerful political party portrays military attacks as legitimate resistance against Israeli aggression.

12. Modeled after Iran Legitimacy. Lebanese Government allows Hezbollah to operate freely as long as it adheres to Lebanese laws. Increased seats: 14 direct and 57 (coalition) of the 128 -member Parliament in Lebanon. The Secretary General of Hezbollah is Hassan Nasrallah, a former leader of the rival Shi'ite movement Amal. Hezbollah is now considered to be the most powerful political force within Lebanon. Organization

13. All plans and coordination for military and/or terrorist operations worldwide. Organization

14. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 14 Hezbollah: Ideology Hezbollah's original and immediate goal was to end the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, and to fight for the liberation of Palestinian lands. Expanded to include (according to political platform, first published in 1985: The solution to Lebanon's problems is the establishment of an Islamic republic as only this type of regime can secure justice and equality for all of Lebanon's citizens. Fight against 'western imperialism' and its eradication from Lebanon and complete withdrawal of American and French forces and all their institutions from Lebanon. Complete destruction of the State of Israel and the establishment of Islamic rule over Jerusalem. Hezbollah's ideology is based in the Shi'a tradition of Islam, specifically in the concept of Willayat Al-Faqih put forth by Ayatollah Khomeini and other Islamic scholars in Iran. Hezbollah seeks to set up an Islamic government in Lebanon modeled after the one in Iran.

15. �March 14 Coalition� (Sunni) � took advantage of post 2006 anger with Hezbollah to surprise and win the majority in the 128-member parliament with 71 seats. Hezbollah-led coalition (�March 8th Alliance) won a total of 57 with its coalitions (i.e. rival Shia group, Amal). Significant and unexpected defeat for Hezbollah and the interest of its allies (Iran and Syria) and sponsors.. Political Alliances

16. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 16 Sponsors & Support Hezbollah receives financial & political assistance as well as weapons and training: Local offerings or Zakat contributions right after prayers Financial Support from Iran ($100M in money and equipment) Foreign �Assistance� and international �Sponsors� and fundraising is estimated at hundreds of millions annually. Supply routes (most are via Syria) Illegal Operations such as: Counterfeiting (US dollars) Drug smuggling Illegal cigarette Smuggle

17. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 17 Perspective: UN & EU 2004 - UN Security Council Resolution 1559 - Goal is to disband and disarm any Lebanese and non-Lebanese militia including Hezbollah. - To bring Lebanon and Israel into complete compliance with UN Resolution 425 (1978- which called for Israel�s withdraw from area known as Blue Line) 2005 - European Union: �there is clear evidence that Hezbollah has perpetrated �terrorist� activities� and is a terrorist organization. 2008 - Lebanon�s Prime Minister Siniora says the only way to disarm Hezbollah is for Israel to completely withdraw from area of Sheba�a Farms.

18. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 18 Perspective: US Since 1983: Marine barracks attack, FBI & CIA Hezbollah on �Watch� List. U.S. implements sanctions against Iran & Syria to curtail funding and support. July 2000: FBI uncovered large �fundraising� scams by Hezbollah operatives in the U.S. FBI continues to prevent any fund raising abilities by Hezbollah. U.S. State Department places Hezbollah on the list of Foreign Terrorist Organization September 2001: President Bush vows to pursue ANY nation harboring terrorists. 2006-2007: U.S. pledged more than $1 Million dollars assistance to rebuild Lebanon. Power of Hezbollah remains strong, Lebanese Government can�t force Hezbollah out without strong commitment from U.S. and allies. No one is prepared to make. Iranian and Syrian backing continues. Disarming Hezbollah not practical. It is believed Hezbollah could be THE next major threat to United States and its allies.

19. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 19 Why Important for us? Represents changing complexity of Combat Environment with increasing threats and players. Hezbollah has evolved into the most capable new class of threats transitioning from terrorist group into �hybrid� environment.

20. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 20 Hybrid Environment

21. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 21 Definitional Issues Basis for definition: modes vice structural Admixture of different modes/methods of fighting or Hybrid as composite of state & non-state actors Simultaneous? All four modes? Degree of operational and tactical fusion State based forms

22. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 22 State-like capabilities Long Range Missiles Anti-ship Cruise Missiles Anti-armor systems UAVs SIGINT Selected tactics� Highly trained in traditional and irregular modes Extensive preparations Exploitation of political effects Hezbollah: The Prototype

23. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 23 Recent Analysis Rigorous analysis from IDF perspective found that Hezbollah was unique: Decomposition did not address rockets, combinations and Hz Info ops Argues that large-scale transformation for IW may be ill advised.

24. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 24 101 applications of amphibious capability in the past 25 years, covering the range of activities described in the national strategy. Includes 88 applications conforming to the doctrinal types of amphibious operations: 6 Amphibious Assaults 4 Amphibious Withdrawals 3 Amphibious Demonstrations 2 Amphibious Raids 73 �Other Amphibious Operations� such as NEO (12) or HA/DR (26) Includes 13 applications that do not conform to doctrine, such as MIO, strikes, MCM support, and enforcement of UN sanctions. 101 applications of amphibious capability in the past 25 years, covering the range of activities described in the national strategy. Includes 88 applications conforming to the doctrinal types of amphibious operations: 6 Amphibious Assaults 4 Amphibious Withdrawals 3 Amphibious Demonstrations 2 Amphibious Raids 73 �Other Amphibious Operations� such as NEO (12) or HA/DR (26) Includes 13 applications that do not conform to doctrine, such as MIO, strikes, MCM support, and enforcement of UN sanctions.

25. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 25 Likely Operations

26. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 26 Conclusions Hezbollah a model for the future of the transformation of threat. Level of violence by Hezbollah linked to political aspirations: Tactical vs. operational Likelihood of violence declines in election cycles, indicating Hezbollah subordinates its military goals to its political needs. Hezbollah as become an organization that makes more careful and strategic calculations, but is pulled between competing influences - �Sponsors� and their political interests. What to watch: the collision between the Lebanese government and Army and its growing and consolidating militias and Hezbollah?

27. DET-1 CENTCOM ARE 27