1 / 18

SUPPORTED BY: StratPlan Jeff McCarthy Mott McDonald Goba

USING STATISTICS FOR LONG TERM SPATIAL PLANNING:  THE ILEMBE 2050 REGIONAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Tindall Kruger and Pravina Govender 13 September 2013. SUPPORTED BY: StratPlan Jeff McCarthy Mott McDonald Goba. ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY. THE 2050 PLAN – BASIC APPROACH.

kyna
Download Presentation

SUPPORTED BY: StratPlan Jeff McCarthy Mott McDonald Goba

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. USING STATISTICS FOR LONG TERM SPATIAL PLANNING:  THE ILEMBE 2050 REGIONAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PLANTindall Kruger and PravinaGovender13 September 2013 SUPPORTED BY: StratPlan Jeff McCarthy Mott McDonald Goba ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY

  2. THE 2050 PLAN – BASIC APPROACH • The Ilembe Regional Spatial Development Plan is intended to provide long term spatial planning guidance to all stakeholders in Ilembe.   • The District is a recognised growth node in South Africa.  For the purpose of the plan the Ilembe Team (supported by Iyer Urban Design Studio and StratPlan), based on a range of statistics, explored various growth scenarios for the District.   • The selection of the preferred scenario was influenced by socio-economic development trends and the proposed development trajectory reflected in the 2012 National Development Plan.   • The selected High Road Scenario was further developed to better understand future population profiles, housing demand, and economic development in the District.   • This understanding formed the basis for the preparation of short (2020), medium (2030) and long term (2050) spatial development plans.

  3. USING STATISTICS – THE APPROACH • Step 1: Developing the Scenarios • Step 2: Unpacking the Scenarios • Step 3: Understanding the Implications • Step 4: Determining the Spatial Impact • Step 5: Developing the Plan

  4. STEP 1 - DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS SCENARIO 1 LOW ROAD SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 HIGH ROAD Assumptions: • The economy stagnates growing at between 1-2% • HIV/AIDS continue to have major impact • New urban / housing development limited Assumptions: • The economy grows at between 3-5% • Neighbouring areas low growth rates (in-migration) • The impact of HIV/AIDS on population growth has been significantly reduced • New urban / housing development Assumptions: • The economy grows at between 5-7% for an extended period • In-migration from neighbouring countries and Districts as a result of economic growth • As per previous Implications: • Current growth rates maintained Implications: • Above average population growth rates Implications: • High population growth rates 1% POPULATION GROWTH PA 2% POPULATION GROWTH PA 3% POPULATION GROWTH PA / 5% ECON. GROWTH

  5. STEP 2 – UNPACKING THE SCENARIOS Sc 3: Nearly 4 times the current population by 2050 Sc 3: Double the current population by 2030 Sc 2: Double the current population Sc 1: Approx. 300k increase Note: In the period mid-1990 to mid-2000s RSAs nine major cities grew at a rate of 1.92%

  6. STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS Scattered rural population remains stagnant or decline (0% growth) A further 1.2m people to be accommodated in urban areas (3.9% growth over term) A further 120k people to be accommodated in rural areas (1% growth, not considering backlog)

  7. STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS • SOME ASSUMPTIONS FOR ILEMBE: • In 40 years the current 0-20 year old will be the 40-60 group • Fertility rates will decrease and in-migration will increase • HIV/AIDS will continue to impact more on current 20-40 group, • as well as on 0-20 group • Male / female distribution will become more equal (currently 45:55 in some areas)

  8. INFORMING THE THINKING Increasing crude death rates (per 1 000 of population) Declining fertility rates (Substantially) lower life expectancy An ageing population

  9. STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS

  10. STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS DISTRIBUTION

  11. STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (HOUSING) Note: Household size: 3.8 people

  12. STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (ECONOMIC) GVA IN R’000,000

  13. STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (ECONOMIC) MANUFACTURING EXAMPLE: • 7 076 ha industrial land generates R31 billion in eThekwini (R4.4 million per hectare) • 4 752 ha industrial land will generate R20.9 billion in iLembe • Current supply in Ilembe is 807 ha • Additional demand for 2050 is 3 954 ha

  14. STEP 5 – THE PLAN (EXISTING) Existing Denser Development is shown in BROWN

  15. STEP 5 – THE PLAN (SHORT TERM) Short-Term Development is shown in ORANGE

  16. STEP 5 – THE PLAN (MEDIUM TERM) Medium-Term Development is shown in YELLOW

  17. STEP 5 – THE PLAN (LONG TERM) Long-Term Development is shown in LIGHT YELLOW

  18. THE LESSONS LEARNT • Using statistical analysis as a tool for long term spatial planning is essential as it introduces reality into the process (something that is often lacking in these processes) • Accurately predicting the future is impossible, but starting from a solid information base increases the probability of getting it right • The iLembe 2050 Plan provides decision makers with a firm foundation for guiding future spatial development

More Related