The Modern Practice of Industrial Statistics

1. The Modern Practice of Industrial Statistics Douglas C. Montgomery Professor of Engineering & Statistics Arizona State University doug.montgomery@asu.edu FTC October 2003 El Paso

2. Outline • Industrial statistics, then and now • Business drivers • Skills helpful for success • What can academic programs and institutions do? • Increasing the power of statistics FTC October 2003 El Paso

3. Background • Today’s statistician lives and works in different/changing times • The “democratization” of statistics – everybody’s doing it • Six sigma is playing a role in this • Widespread availability/use of statistical software by nonstatisticians • Expanding scope of problems in which statistics plays a role • These changes cannot be ignored • How to play a leadership role? FTC October 2003 El Paso

4. The New Environment • Lots of people use statistics; the techniques are no longer exclusively the province of statisticians • Applications in distribution systems, financial, and services are becoming at least as important as applications in manufacturing and R&D • “Statistical Thinking” in management decision making is becoming just as important as the actual use of statistical methods • Data-driven decision-making • “In God we trust, all others bring data” FTC October 2003 El Paso

5. The New Environment • Statisticians are needed • Sometimes even wanted, respected (loved?) • But not just to analyze data, design experiments, etc • Non-statisticians often do that for themselves • The scope of professional practice is changing, expanding • So – the options are: lead, follow, or get out of the way • How do we do that? FTC October 2003 El Paso

6. Some Contrasts FTC October 2003 El Paso

7. Business Drivers • Flattening (“delayering”) of organizations • Less staff, fewer consultants & technical experts • More operational accountability • Shift from manufacturing to service economy • Impacts even traditional manufacturers • Supply chain management critical (domestic content issues) • Drive to create value for stakeholders • More broad application of basic tools • Perhaps fewer applications of advanced tools FTC October 2003 El Paso

8. Business Drivers • Data-rich, highly automated business and industrial environment • Semiconductor manufacturing process • Fabrication process typically has 200+ steps • Assembly and test required to complete product • 1000s of wafers started each week • In-process, probe, parametric, functional test data available FTC October 2003 El Paso

9. Business Drivers • Improve efficiency/effectiveness of engineering design and development • Move upstream • Methods for reliability improvement continue to be of increasing importance - driven by customer expectations • Reliability of software, process equipment (predictive maintenance) are major considerations • Reducing development (cycle) time • Robustness of products and processes are still important problems • DFSS a growing emphasis FTC October 2003 El Paso

10. Traditionally the industrial statistician has been an internal consultant – manufacturing or R&D focus • This perspective is changing as statistical methods penetrate other key areas, including • Information systems • Supply chain management • Transactional business processes • Six-sigma activities have played a part in this FTC October 2003 El Paso

11. The statistician's role is changing as well • It’s important to be a “team member” (or facilitator, leader) and not just a “consultant” • The mathematics orientation of many statistics programs does not make this easy • Quote from Craig Barrett (INTEL): “To be successful at INTEL, the statisticians need to be better engineers” • Statisticians still often • Do not share in patent awards/recognition, other incentives • Not viewed as full team members • Regarded as merely “data technicians” FTC October 2003 El Paso

12. Some Key Background/Courses for Modern Industrial Statisticians • Preparation for professional practice • Design of Industrial Experiments • Emphasis on factorials, two-level designs, fractional factorials, blocking • Random effects, nesting, split plots • Response Surface Methodology • Traditional RSM, philosophy, methods, designs • Mixture Experiments • Robust design, process robustness studies FTC October 2003 El Paso

13. Some “Must” Background/Courses for Modern Industrial Statisticians • Reliability Engineering • Survival data analysis, life testing • RAM principles • Design concepts • Modern Statistical Quality Control • Analysis of Massive Data Sets • Traditional multivariate methods • CART, MARS, other data mining tools • Categorical Data Analysis, GLM FTC October 2003 El Paso

14. Some “Must” Background/Courses for Modern Industrial Statisticians • Forecasting, Time Series Analysis & Modeling (should overview a variety of methods, include system design aspects) • Discrete Event Simulation • Principles of Operations Research • Basic optimization theory • Linear & nonlinear programming • Network models FTC October 2003 El Paso

15. I have just outlined about 27 semester hours of graduate work!! • Most MS programs require 30 hrs beyond the BS (non-thesis option), 24hrs with thesis • PhD programs require a minimum of 30 hrs of course work beyond the MS • Academic programs would need to be significantly redesigned if a serious effort is going to be made to educate industrial statisticians FTC October 2003 El Paso

16. Where do graduates go? • Lots of places: business and industry, government, academia • But few of them will be theorists or teach/conduct research in theory-oriented programs • So why do many graduate programs operate as if all of them will? • More flexibility is needed FTC October 2003 El Paso

17. Most PhD programs require a minor (sometimes two, sometimes out-of-department) • Require that this be in engineering, chemical/physical science, etc. • Most departments will be interested in setting these up • Could also work at MS level • Certificate programs FTC October 2003 El Paso

18. Recruit engineers/scientists/ORMS majors for graduate programs in statistics • But graduate programs had better be meaningful! • Significant program redesign will be required • Alternative – develop joint graduate (degree/certificate) programs with engineering departments, business schools FTC October 2003 El Paso

19. The ASU Graduate Certificate Program in Statistics • Students take five approved courses • Certificate can be pursued as part of a graduate degree or as a stand-alone program • Emphasis area in industrial statistics and six-sigma methods is available FTC October 2003 El Paso

20. Industrial Statistics & Six-Sigma • Design of Experiments • Regression Analysis • Statistical Quality Control • Shewhart control charts • Measurement systems analysis • Process capability analysis • EWMAs, CUSUMs, other univariate techniques • Multivariate process monitoring • EPC/SPC integration FTC October 2003 El Paso

21. Industrial Statistics & Six-Sigma • Six-Sigma Methods • How to use tools (case studies, illustrations) • DMAIC framework • Non-statistical skills • Design for six-sigma, lean concepts • Taught by six-sigma black belts from industry • Six-Sigma Project • 150 hour duration • Typical industrial BB project • Must use DMAIC approach, statistical tools • Supervised by faculty & industrial sponsor FTC October 2003 El Paso

22. Project Examples • Develop web-based decision system for deployment of statistical tools • Reduce average internal cycle time of instrument calibration lab • Develop prediction model for rate of customer returns to quantify benefits of yield and test coverage improvements, and to identify parts within a technology that do not fit the model FTC October 2003 El Paso

23. Increasing the Power of Statistics A force F acting through a distance s performs work: W = Fs F s FTC October 2003 El Paso

24. Increasing the Power of Statistics F s Power is a measure of how fast work is done: FTC October 2003 El Paso

25. Increasing the Power of Statistics More force = more power More distance more power Shorter time = more power How well can we apply force to this opportunity? How much leverage (distance) can we generate? How quickly can we apply it? FTC October 2003 El Paso

26. Statistics in Business and Industry • Use of statistical methods (thinking?) is routine • Statisticians can be leaders, change agents • Logistics/service/financial applications are growing rapidly • This requires a different type of professional with different skills • There are significant challenges in preparing these individuals for profession practice • Statisticians are valued and needed FTC October 2003 El Paso