Masood Ahmad Lead Water Resources Specialist

1. Project Preparation, and Appraisal in the Water Sector – Pakistan Punjab Barrages Improvement Project Masood AhmadLead Water Resources Specialist ADFD/WB Project Preparation and Appraisal Workshop Abu Dhabi, April 2010

2. Pakistan Punjab Barrages Improvement Project • Project to rehabilitate Jinnah Barrage on the Indus River (see Map for Location) • The Barrage was constructed in 1946 • Whole of the Indus river flow passes through the barrage • Water is diverted to one canal namely the Thal Canal • Thal Canal Coves are area of about 2.1 million acres - in Thal desert • Direct beneficiaries of Barrage/Thal canal are four districts Mianwali, Khushab, Bhakkar, Layyah and Muzafargharh districts • Total popluation about 5 million people dependent of water supplies for from the canal • About 700,000 farm families derive their livelihood directly and indirectly from irrigation • The canal is the source of water for all uses, irrigation, drinking, domestic, municipal and industrial water use. • Bararge is 3,781 Feet long, 56 gated bays 60 feet each • Two undersluices on left and right side with seven bays each, Navigation lock, Fish ladders etc. • A 95 MW power plant is being installed on the barrage would be completed in 2 years

3. Jinnah Barrage

5. Problems of the Barrage and Project Design • Barrage is unsafe and partial or full failure is likely • It is being undermined as the river bed on the downstream side has been lowered • The gates malfunction • Emergency repairs have been done – but the structure needs major revamping • The project would construct a weir done stream to check erosion of the river bed close to the barrage • All gates would be repaired, and motorized and improved with monitoring system • The project would deal with social and environmental issues • The project is to be implemented on an operational system, water supplies cannot be interrupted • Interruption of water supply for to the project area and downstream would be economic and social crises for the country

6. Proposed Project • Objectives: Strengthen and modernize Jinnah Bararage to enable un-interrupted supply of water to2.1 m a; and build capacity of IPD in improved water resources and irrigation management • 5 million people in 5 districts, about 600,000 farm families direct beneficiaries of Jinnah Rehabilitation • Component A: Rehabilitation and Modernization of Jinnah Barrage (US$112 million) • A1, A2 Civil and mechanical works ($94 m) • A3 , Social Development and Environmental Management plans (US$9 million) • Water Supply Schemes, Seed distribution, social development initiatives • A4 Construction Supervision and Project Management

7. Proposed Project • Component B: Improvement and modernization of the Irrigation and Water Management Systems (US$15 million) • B1.1 Improvement and Water Management , simulation models, decision support and water accounting systems etc. (US$5 million) • B1.2 Modernization of equipment for water management (US$4 million) • B2. Future Project Preparation (US$6 million)

8. Proposed Project-- Benefits • Component C: M&E of progress, impact and supervision of SADP and EMP Implementation (US$2.5 million) • Component D: Support for project implementation, technical assistance and training (US$6.5 million) • IDC and Upfront Fee US$19 million • Benefits are large, ERR 21%, continued supply for 2.1 million acres, 5 districts, 5 million people and for 96 MW power plant, road, utility crossing etc. • Improved water resources management in the province

9. Risks, Safeguard Issues Environment, Social • Project is rated “Substantial” risk • Sheer size of construction on operational system • Possible Procurement issues and country environment • Mainly due to possible Interruption to water supplies • Accidents, breaching of coffer dam etc. • Reputational risks • Upgraded to Category “A” • Environment: Positive impact in the long runs, issues during construction which can be mitigated through the proposed EMP • Monitoring of Indus blind Dolphins by wildlife institute (best estimate is 2 between Jinnah and Chashmabarrge) • Social: Positive in the long run, Issue: interruption to supplies during construction -- SDAP to address issues Water supply schemes, seed distr. Part, health unit, girls school

10. Construction Planning and Operation of the System During Construction • Extensive planning for construction • System of coffer dams and timing to ensure supplies downstream ----250,000 cusecs for meeting downstream demands –fisheries and aquatic life • Sequencing to ensure continued supplies to Thal canal • Extreme care to supply water for Mohajir Branch of Thal canal which has saline groundwater and people depend on canal water for drinking water. • Provision of feeder canal with 1,500 cusecs • Contingency plans in case of unforeseen situation, SDAP and EMP • Water supply schemes -rehab and construction • Distribution of seed • Hospitals, schools, etc. in the project area

11. Construction Planning

12. Construction Planning January during canal closure Jan-Feb complete coffer dam March-May construction March –May construction Nov 30 Complete coffer dam Carry out construction December to May Oct 15 start construction of coffer dam

13. Communication Strategy • To keep people informed of the construction schedule and possible implications of operation of the system – allow to make them plans • To get feedback from people and use best possible schedule to minimize negative affects • Use of media, existing organizational structure of IPD • Special unit under PMO to for communication during construction

15. Economic AnalysisEstimates of Financial and Economic costs • Estimates of cost (financial cost) -- September 2009 prices • Construction costs • estimates of quantities, use of unit rates, physical contingencies, taxes, price escalation, and interest during construction • Supervision costs • Monitoring and evaluation costs • Cost of social action plan, cost of environmental management etc, • Estimates of economic cost • Taxes and duties are taken out • Price contingencies are taken out

16. Economic AnalysisEstimates of Benefits • Quantified benefits and • Unquantified benefits • Quantified benefits • Major benefits are from irrigated agriculture • The deterioration of Jinnah Barrage would lead to reduced water and untimely supplies to the Thal canal covering some 2.1 million acres of irrigated area • The current cropping intensity of 103 percent would gradually decrease to 87% over a period of ten years -- without Project Scenario • With the project the area would get full supplies and the cropping intensity would increase to 113 percent • Crop production in without and with project scenarios is valued in economic prices of each commodity and by products. • Crop budgets are prepared for each crop grown in the area • A farm level model is developed for a typical cropping pattern and input outputs for a 5 ha farm

17. Economic AnalysisEstimates of Benefits • Unquantified benefits • Avoided erosion of land and safety of infrastructure on it • The power plant on the Barrage of 96 Mw would have reduced energy production • Catastrophic scenario • If the barrage partially or fully collapses it would take about 5 years to reconstruct • The reconstruction cost would be about US$500 million if all bays do not collapse • Estimated crop loss would be about US$87 million per year • This would result in economic and social crisis for the country • ERR is estimated about 21.7% • NPV is US$80 million in economic terms at 12% discount rate

18. Sensitivity Analysis