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Climate recap and outlook

Climate recap and outlook. Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Olympia, WA October 2, 2007. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group. http://cses.washington.edu/cig/.

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Climate recap and outlook

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  1. Climate recap and outlook Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Olympia, WA October 2, 2007

  2. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ • Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change • Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program

  3. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  4. Heavy November rains

  5. Daily Temperatures +1.23ºC +0.49ºC

  6. 2006-07 snow pack

  7. 2006-07 snow pack

  8. Oct 1 estimated soil moisture percentiles • Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor

  9. Last year’s outlook • a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons • because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely • El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack

  10. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND precip JFM precip

  11. Precip: observed

  12. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND temperature JFM temperature

  13. Temperature: observed

  14. This year…

  15. La Niña arriving • Tropical ocean temperatures have slid into La Niña territory

  16. Equatorial temperature anomaly

  17. The latest ENSO forecasts European Center See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO Forecast summaries

  18. Average La Niña winter precip: 1916-2003 http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps

  19. PDO forecast

  20. PDO forecast: drifting toward cool http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

  21. Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary • Current forecasts rate La Niña as most likely situation for 2007-08 • PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades

  22. Wet Autumn

  23. Winter… possibly coolest in years, but still only “EC”

  24. Another factor in seasonal forecasts PNW December-January-February temperatures

  25. The Bottom line • moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack • Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor… • Persistent warming trends See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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