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Climate recap and outlook. Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Olympia, WA October 2, 2007. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group. http://cses.washington.edu/cig/.
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Climate recap and outlook Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Olympia, WA October 2, 2007
The CSES - Climate Impacts Group http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ • Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change • Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program
Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml
Daily Temperatures +1.23ºC +0.49ºC
Oct 1 estimated soil moisture percentiles • Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor
Last year’s outlook • a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons • because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely • El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack
NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND precip JFM precip
NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND temperature JFM temperature
La Niña arriving • Tropical ocean temperatures have slid into La Niña territory
The latest ENSO forecasts European Center See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO Forecast summaries
Average La Niña winter precip: 1916-2003 http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps
PDO forecast: drifting toward cool http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/
Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary • Current forecasts rate La Niña as most likely situation for 2007-08 • PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades
Another factor in seasonal forecasts PNW December-January-February temperatures
The Bottom line • moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack • Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor… • Persistent warming trends See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov