RMB FIXED INCOME, CURRENCY & COMMODITIES

1. RMB FIXED INCOME, CURRENCY & COMMODITIES Electricity Tariff Proposal

2. PART ONE: FOUNDATIONAL PRINCIPLES

3. The Importance of Electricity • “Power corrupts, but we need the electricity” - Anon • Economic development has been intrinsically coupled to electricity use. • The lack of electricity, or insufficient electricity, is a key concern for all governments. • If people who don’t have it live close to ‘wires’ that carry it, they find ways to get it. • Its absence is usually associated with poverty and reduced quality of life. • The information revolution would not be possible without a stream of electrons. • It is clearly an integral part of our lives and has a large component of public benefit associated with it. Source: Carl J Weinberg,“Keeping the lights on – Sustainable Scenarios for the Future”

4. The Importance of Electricity “HOW WILL THE ELECTRICITY TARIFF STRUCTURE ENABLE ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN OUR QUALITY OF LIFE IN A SUSTAINABLE MANNER?” • An Electricity Tariff Structure has to therefore facilitate the following 3 objectives: • Accessibility – It must be such that it does not become a barrier to the effective use of, and derivation of benefits from, electricity for ALL. • Quality of Life – It should promote continual improvement in quality of life for ALL. • Sustainability – The tariff should be determined such that the sustainability of electricity supply is assured, as well the sustained promotion of access and quality of life.

5. Accessibility: The Apportionment of Risk in Tariff Structuring • The electricity tariff has to promote accessibility. • The manner in which the tariff changes also has to promote accessibility. • The ability of different groups of consumers to absorb price increases is vastly different, e.g.: • A household with a fixed monthly income increasing at a much lower rate than the electricity tariff will not be able to absorb price increases as well as a large corporation that has the ability to pass costs onto its customers. • The differing ability of consumer groups to absorb price increases will lead to unequal distribution of access to electricity – those with pricing power will continue to enjoy its benefits, whilst those on low fixed / uncertain incomes will be enjoying a lower level of access. In order for ALL consumers to continue to enjoy ACCESS to electricity, the manner in which the tariff is structured should cater for the differing ability of groups to absorb increases in price

6. Quality of Life: The Promotion of Economic Activity The proposed tariff structure, whilst promoting access to electricity, should also stimulate and promote economic activity: Through the promotion of economic enterprises and endeavour, the resultant spin offs such as job creation, infrastructure development, etc. will form the backbone of maintaining and improving standards of living. • Infrastructure Development • Job Creation • Attracting Foreign Investment • Encouraging Industrial Activity In order to improve the quality of life for ALL, the manner in which the tariff is structured should promote economic activity and job creation, and ensure that the price of power in SA remains internationally competitive.

7. Sustainability: Matching Revenues with Costs In order for a tariff structure to promote the sustainability of the electricity system and cater for future expansion, it must be able to: The above characteristics will ensure that consumers are happy to accept the tariff on an ongoing basis (because they can observe the basis for it). • Keep pace with increased input costs • Lock in an acceptable profit margin for the electricity utility, regardless of fluctuating input costs • Furthermore, the tariff structure must be: • Transparent, • Easily observable • Internationally comparable In order to ensure the sustainability of electricity supply, the tariff structure must lock in profit margins for the electricity utility, protect those margins against rising input costs and have social legitimacy through transparency.

8. RMB’s Proposal • In order to create an electricity tariff structure that achieves the following: • Access to electricity while taking into account the differing abilities of consumer groups to absorb price increases • Maintains and improves Quality of Life by promoting economic activity and job creation • Sustainability of Supply by locking in margins and guarding against input costs, while being transparent and observable • RMB Proposes the following: • A two tiered tariff system • Coal market linked pricing for energy intensive industries • Fixed electricity prices with inflation linked increases for smaller business and households • The establishment of a Listed Power Market in South Africa, in order to: • Provide a mechanism for energy intensive industries to hedge themselves and manage their price risk • Create internationally observable and benchmarkable industrial power prices.

9. Impact on Stakeholders

10. PART TWO: MECHANICS OF THE STRATEGY

11. Carbon Price Fuel Price Power Price Consider the European Power Market • Coal is loaded, trucked and railed to Richards Bay Coal Terminal and loaded onto vessels. • The utility pays the prevailing RB1 price. • Coal is shipped to Rotterdam and freight paid on the Baltic C4 index. • The coal is barged inland and stockpiled where it is burnt. • The utility also pays for carbon to cover their CO2 emissions. The cost of logistics from the Highveld to RBCT (or Maputo) and then onto Europe (or India) and finally to the specific station all adds to the ultimate burn cost and is reflected in higher European wholesale power prices. For SA to have higher power prices than Europe would be a tragedy! After all we burn lower grade coal and we don’t need to get it to Richards Bay. € / MWh clean spread dark spread

12. Can Financial Markets be Harnessed for the Benefit of All? Financial markets are excellent sources of liquidity, price discovery and market intelligence. These factors make them both useful and detrimental to economic policy objectives. • Advantages • Offers transparent price discovery • Offers liquidity and tradability, which makes risk management possible • Prices encompass qualitative factors and forecast variables, aiding in policy decisions • Disadvantages • Can be unpredictable and volatile • Influenced by global conditions, sometimes making them behave contrary to local realities • Prices based on profit motives We believe that the power of financial markets can be harnessed to aid the objectives of a developmental state.

13. The Impact of Arbitrary Tariff Determination Eskom’s average wholesale tariff is currently very close to European Wholesale spot power prices. The worrying graph is the one on the right showing an immediate tariff increase of some 146%. The grey area represents the probable future price range for European power whilst the 20% spot coal blue line is the prevailing forward curve for coal.

14. The Mechanics of a Market Linked Strategy The proposed pricing mechanism would work as follows: SA Power Price = [ (RB1 – 200) / 22 * 3.6 /  * 100 / 1000 ] + Carbon EUA + Profit SAPP = Highveld Coal Price + Carbon + Profit Margin (in ZARc / KWh) Stochastic Variables Constant • Coal Price: RB1 worked back to Eskom Highveld price and quoted in ZAR/tonne • Efficiency (): 35% • Carbon EUA: In Europe, around EUR13/mt CO2e, but for Eskom currently zero • Profit Margin: Profit margin as determined by Eskom to cover CAPEX and OPEX • Eskom Coal: 22 GJ/tonne • 1 MWH = 3.6 GJ • The factor of 22 takes the ZAR / tonne price of coal and converts it to ZAR / GJ • Multiplying this by 3.6 gives the ZAR price per MWH • The efficiency factor () is based on Eskom’s average efficiency of all their power stations • The factor of 100 converts from ZAR to ZARc • The factor of 1,000 takes the value from MWh to KWh • The Carbon EUA variable makes provision for potential carbon tariffs

15. The Risk Transfer Mechanism ESKOM pays: 20% @ low-grade spot Highveld price 80% @ fixed & cost-plus coal contracts Coal Miners 30% - Municipal Domestic RMB proposes charging a low fixed tariff vs. currently expected to field the brunt of tariff increases. 40% - EIUG 30% - Municipal Industrials RMB proposes charging at SAPP vs. currently enjoying relatively favourable rates. Germans pay export RB1 + RB:ROTT Freight + Barging + Carbon • 70% of Eskom revenues exposed to coal price and 80% of costs exposed to low fixed-price coal • Coal price increases mean higher profits for Eskom (opposite to a year ago) • SA power tariff is always lower than European power tariff

16. Result: Appropriately Positioned Tariff Risk 80% of coal purchased on fixed price & cost-plus 20% of coal purchased on spot Highveld Price Fixed Price Tariffs for The Public SAPP - linked Tariff for Industrial Users (EIUG) etc. ESKOM’s revenues increase with rising coal prices EIUG consumers hedged against coal price rises (lock-in power prices)

17. "Whilst all care has been taken by FirstRand Bank Limited (acting through its Rand Merchant Bank division) (Registration No. 1929/001225/06) (the “Bank”) in the preparation of the opinions and forecasts and the information contained in this document, the Bank does not make any representations or give any warranties as to their correctness, accuracy or completeness, nor does the Bank assume liability for any losses arising from errors or omissions in the opinions, forecasts or information, irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by the Bank, its affiliates, officers or employees, and whether such losses be direct, indirect or consequential. Nothing contained in this document is to be construed as guidance, a proposal or a recommendation or advice to enter into, or to refrain from entering into, any transaction. RMB is an authorised Financial Services Provider."