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What is Fixed Income?Bonds Up CloseInvestment VehiclesOur HoldingsGeneral Thoughts. TOC. BondsGovernmentCorporateCertificates of Deposit (CDs)Commercial PaperSavings AccountsPreferred Stock. What is Fixed Income?. How do they work?Par Value ? Price = EarningsMaturity lengthCoupon Rates
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1. Fixed Income Sector Franz Russler
Gregory Duperon
September 29, 2009
2. What is Fixed Income?
Bonds Up Close
Investment Vehicles
Our Holdings
General Thoughts TOC
3. Bonds
Government
Corporate
Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
Commercial Paper
Savings Accounts
Preferred Stock What is Fixed Income?
4. How do they work?
Par Value – Price = Earnings
Maturity length
Coupon Rates (Computed Yields)
Government Bonds
US Treasuries
Bills, Notes & Bonds
Municipal Bonds
Are government bonds guaranteed? Bonds: A Closer Look Munis – General Obligation Bonds (GOs) are backed by the ability to pay using tax revenues (credit) not revenues from a project or backed by an asset
Revenue Bonds – Munis backed by revenues generated from a specific project (toll roads?)Munis – General Obligation Bonds (GOs) are backed by the ability to pay using tax revenues (credit) not revenues from a project or backed by an asset
Revenue Bonds – Munis backed by revenues generated from a specific project (toll roads?)
5. Credit Rating of the Issuer
Investment Grades
High-Yield (Junk) Bonds: A Closer Look (2) Determinants of Bond Safety: 1. Coverage Ratios – company earnings to fixed costs (low/declining is bad)
Leverage Ratio – Debt-to-equity – high is bad; unable to earn enough to satisfy bond obligations
Liquidity Ratios – Current and Quick – ability to pay current bills with current liquid assets
Profitability Ratios – Rate of return on assets or equity (ROA, ROE)
Cash flow-to-debt ratioDeterminants of Bond Safety: 1. Coverage Ratios – company earnings to fixed costs (low/declining is bad)
Leverage Ratio – Debt-to-equity – high is bad; unable to earn enough to satisfy bond obligations
Liquidity Ratios – Current and Quick – ability to pay current bills with current liquid assets
Profitability Ratios – Rate of return on assets or equity (ROA, ROE)
Cash flow-to-debt ratio
6. Factors Affecting Yield
Current Price
Market Interest Rates
Maturity
Inflation
“Lowers” the Par Value
Bonds: A Closer Look (3) 1. Bond Prices and yields are inversely related
Yield to maturity is maximum expected yield, and Expected Yield takes into account default risk
Not knowing future interest rates induces a yield risk premium to be added to the initial price
2. Prices of long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes than short-term
3. Prices of low-coupon bonds are more sensitive to rate changes than high-coupon bonds1. Bond Prices and yields are inversely related
Yield to maturity is maximum expected yield, and Expected Yield takes into account default risk
Not knowing future interest rates induces a yield risk premium to be added to the initial price
2. Prices of long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes than short-term
3. Prices of low-coupon bonds are more sensitive to rate changes than high-coupon bonds
7. Individual Bonds
Credit & Maturity ? Yield
Bond Funds
Strategy & Style Maps
Money Markets
Real Return
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
Isolation Strategy Investment Vehicles
8. Our Holdings
9. Our Holdings (2)
10. Performance v . S&P 500
11. Commodity Real Return Fund (PCRCX) Strategy
invests in commodity-linked derivative instruments
commodity index-linked notes, swaps, options, futures, options on futures!
backed by a portfolio of inflation-indexed securities and other FI instruments
Risks
Commodity risk
Derivatives risk
Subsidiary risk
12. Commodity Real Return Fund (PCRCX)
13. Commodity Real Return Fund (PCRCX)
14. Commodity Real Return Fund (PCRCX) Highlights
U.S. Agency mortgage-backed securities benefited performance as mortgage spreads tightened
Lowlights
Commodities declined 44.99% . Energy sector was down 62.74% during period.
TIPS, the fund’s collateral, underperformed benchmark
Exposure to U.S. corporate bonds in financial sector
Emphasis on inflation-linked bonds in Japan
Benchmark: Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return
15. Emerging Markets Bond Fund (PEBCX) Strategy
invests at least 80% of assets in instruments economically tied to emerging markets
could be forwards, options, futures, swaps
investment-grade and high-yield securities (max 15% below B rating)
may be denominated non-U.S. currencies
Risks
currency risk
emerging markets risk
high-yield risk
16. Emerging Markets Bond Fund (PEBCX)
17. Emerging Markets Bond Fund (PEBCX)
18. Emerging Markets Bond Fund (PEBCX) Highlight(s)
Underweighting Ecuador, Venezuela and Pakistan
Lowlight(s)
Overweighting Russia
Underweighting Lebanon and Turkey = missed opportunities
Benchmark: JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) Global
19. High Yield C Fund (PHDCX) Strategy
at least 80% in high-yield securities
can include forwards, options, swaps
20%, possibly, in securities dominated in foreign currencies
15%, possibly, in emerging market securities
10%, possibly, in preferred stocks
Risks
default risk
currency risk
liquidity risk
20. High Yield C Fund (PHDCX)
21. High Yield C Fund (PHDCX)
22. High Yield C Fund (PHDCX) Highlight(s)
Exposure to investment-grade bonds, which outperformed high-yields by ~15%.
Overweighting healthcare sector, which benefited as investors sought defensive plays
Underweighting gaming sector
Lowlight(s)
Overweighting financial sector
Underweighting environmental sector, which was among the top performers in high-yield market
Overweighting auto-related bonds
Benchmark: Merrill Lynch U.S. high-Yield, BB-B Rated, Constrained Index
23. Global Bond Fund (USD–Hedged) (PCIIX) Strategy
invests at least 80% of assets in securities economically tied to at least 3 countries
forwards, options, futures, swaps
may invest up to 10% in high-yield securities (B and higher)
Risks
currency risk
interest rate risk
default risk
24. Global Bond Fund (USD–Hedged) (PCIIX)
25. Global Bond Fund (USD–Hedged) (PCIIX)
26. Global Bond Fund (USD–Hedged) (PCIIX) Highlights
Underweighting British pound
Lowlights
Positions in Agency and non-Agency mortgage-backed securities and other asset-backed securities
Japanese inflation-linked bonds, which underperformed nominal Japanese government bonds
Corporate bond holdings of select financial companies
Exposure to short-dated interest rate swaps
Benchmark: JPMorgan GBI Global Hedged in USD
27. Where is the market heading?
Market Interest Rates
Inflation
How do we want to allocate Fixed Income?
Holistically
Individually
Other Considerations? General Discussion