Geosciences and the future of Planet Earth – a hydrological perspective

1. Geosciences and the future of Planet Earth – a hydrological perspective Kate Heal School of GeoSciences The University of Edinburgh k.heal@ed.ac.uk

2. Water is essential for life • Water and health • 1.8 million deaths annually from diarrhoeal disease, mainly <5 years • Water and food • 70% available water used for irrigation • Water as a hazard • 15% of deaths in natural disasters in floods • Water and energy • 19% of electricity produced by hydropower • Hydropower development could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 13% • Increasing pressures on water resources Therefore it should be easy for hydrologists to contribute to service of mankind… www.dunalastair.co.uk/images/700/Pitlochry-Dam.jpg

3. Why we need hydrologists • Estimate surface and groundwater availability • Predict effects of land use and climate changes on water quantity and quality • Assess water requirements of ecosystem services • Estimate frequency of occurrence and magnitude of floods and droughts

4. But science required to address these questions • Measurement of hydrological processes and influences on them • Integrating data and models at different scales • Development of novel technologies and techniques in measurement and modelling Images: S. Hubbard

5. So why do we not hear much about hydrologists? • Society does not know what hydrology is • Hydrologists do not know what hydrology is • Intersection of “Hydrology” and “Water Resource Management” • Hydrology rarely a separate subject at school or university • Embedded within Engineering, Geography, Forestry • Water is often politicised • Human right to safe water and sanitation (UN General Assembly July 2010) • UN Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of Shared Watercourses (1997) still not ratified

6. Multi-disciplinary nature of hydrology (Acknowledgment: Harouna Karambiri)

7. The international water scene is flooded … • Many different actors with different aims • UNESCO • World Water Assessment Programme • International Hydrology Programme • World Water Council • International Water Association • IAHS • Many different venues • World Water Forum • Stockholm World Water Week • Singapore International Water Week

8. What should be the role of IUGG and IAHS? • Emphasise science and scientists • Emphasise multi-disciplinarity and interaction between associations • Emphasise internationalism (cf. AGU), especially potential to engage with developing country scientists

9. What IAHS is doing: PUB • Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) decade 2003-2012 • www.iahs-pub.org • Primary aim of reducing uncertainty in hydrological predictions • Grass-roots movement, has evolved over time • Structure • 4 biennia: initiation, growth, taking stock, consolidation • 8 science themes and working groups have developed which span 2 or more themes • Science Steering Committee includes Theme leaders and young hydrologists • Will produce Benchmark Report “Runoff prediction in ungauged basins” to address the science question: How and how well can we estimate runoff characteristics in the absence of at-site runoff data?

10. What IAHS is doing: PUC • Next decade…Predictions under Change (PUC): Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene research agenda (Murugesu Sivapalan) • See Wagener et al. (2010) WRR 46, W05301 • Future research agenda • Humans part of the hydrologic system Sivapalan (Ed.) Predictions under Change: Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene, Draft, 18 April 2011

11. Application of the new framework to propose research to predict hydrological responses to watershed disturbance Sivapalan (Ed.) Predictions under Change: Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene, Draft, 18 April 2011

12. Enhancing the role of IUGG and IAHS • Lobby for funding for Geosciences research and training • Encourage multi-disciplinarity and interaction between Associations • Increase accessibility of meetings and scientists to policy makers and the public • “Solutions from Students” Poster competition at IUGG 2011 • EGU outreach programme • Encourage young scientists • Already funding towards meeting participation • Masterclasses and mentoring (e.g. EGU, ICGW)

13. Challenges to the IUGG and IAHS in realising service to mankind • Communication of uncertainty to society and policy makers • Different time-scales of policy making and science (short-term and reactive vs. long-term) • Scientific career progression metrics do not incentivise engagement – though changing • More training in science communication • Funding for outreach, communication and marketing • No fee for IAHS • Strength: distinctive feature, accessibility • Weakness: limits resources for activities

14. (Quinn et al., 2004) Need to understand policy makers

15. How to increase interaction between scientists and policy makers • Demonstrate gains from policy based on good science • Emphasise financial aspects • Understand policy making processes • More effective communication • Policy maker involvement in research • Demonstration sites • Training and capacity building

16. Develop appropriate communication tools (Quinn et al., 2004)

17. Translate scientific knowledge into risk assessment matrices Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix for a field/fields (Hewett et al., 2004) Darker shading indicates high risk Low-medium risk High risk

18. Conclusions • IUGG and IAHS • Need to demonstrate IMPACT of Geosciences to policy makers • Lobbying for funding for Geosciences measurement, research and training • More public and policy maker engagement • Grass-roots scientific initiatives important • Individual responsibility of scientists • Engage with policy makers/society wherever possible • Make research results more accessible

19. And finally… (Acknowledgment: Harouna Karambiri)