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Global Containerized Maritime Shipping: Emergence and Divergence

Global Containerized Maritime Shipping: Emergence and Divergence. Jean-Paul Rodrigue Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA. THE EMERGENCE OF CONTAINERIZATION. Density of Ship Log Entries, 1750-1810. Maritime Shipping Routes and Strategic Locations.

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Global Containerized Maritime Shipping: Emergence and Divergence

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  1. Global Containerized Maritime Shipping: Emergence and Divergence Jean-Paul Rodrigue Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA

  2. THE EMERGENCE OF CONTAINERIZATION

  3. Density of Ship Log Entries, 1750-1810

  4. Maritime Shipping Routes and Strategic Locations

  5. The Container as a Transport, Production and Distribution Unit

  6. Diffusion Cycle of Containerization Diffusion Level Niche markets Maturity Massive diffusion Network complexities Peak Growth New (niche) services Productivity gains Acceleration Network development Productivity multipliers Adoption Time

  7. Containerization as a Diffusion Cycle: World Container Traffic (1980-2011) and Scenarios to 2015 Adoption Maturity Acceleration Peak Growth 1966-1992 1992-2002 2002-2008 2008 - Reference Divergence Depression

  8. The K-Wave of Containerization K-Wave Traffic A Phase (Wave) B Maturity Acceleration Adoption Peak Growth Time (Decades) Transition (A) Seasonal Cycle (B) Months Years Source: Guerrero and Rodrigue (2013)

  9. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis Parameters of Global Container Ports, 1970-2010 Dissimilarity dendrogram for 7 classes Fifth Wave E Fourth Wave D.2 Third Wave D.1 C Second Wave B.2 First Wave B.1 A Low High Dissimilarity Level Source: Guerrero and Rodrigue (2013)

  10. The First Wave of Containerization, 1970 – The Pioneers of the Triad Pioneer ports setting containerized operations in the economic triad (North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan). Driver: Trade substitution Source: Guerrero and Rodrigue (2013)

  11. The Second Wave of Containerization, 1980 – Adoption in the Triad and its Periphery Expansion of the triad and its trade partners (Caribbean, Mediterranean, Asian Tigers). Driver: Adoption of containerization Source: Guerrero and Rodrigue (2013)

  12. The Third Wave of Containerization, 1990 – Global Diffusion Large diffusion in new markets (Latin America, Middle East / South Asia, Southeast Asia). Driver: Setting of global supply chains. Setting of transshipment hubs. Source: Guerrero and Rodrigue (2013)

  13. The Fourth Wave of Containerization, 2000 – Global Standard The container as the standard transport support of the global economy. Driver: Expansion of global supply chains. China and transshipment hubs. Source: Guerrero and Rodrigue (2013)

  14. The Fifth Wave of Containerization, 2010 – Peak Growth Peak growth and the setting of niches. Driver: Spillover effect and new transshipment hubs. Source: Guerrero and Rodrigue (2013)

  15. Waves of Containerization, 1970-2010 Each wave lasts 8 to 10 years. Hierarchical diffusion pattern. Source: Guerrero and Rodrigue (2013)

  16. DIVERGENCE: GLOBAL TERMINAL OPERATORS AND TRANSSHIPMENT HUBS

  17. Typology of Global Port Operators

  18. Factors behind the Interest of Equity Firms in Transport Terminals

  19. Top Twelve Global Container Terminal Operators by Equity-Based Throughput, 2010

  20. Container Terminal Surface of the World's Major Port Holdings, 2010

  21. Container Terminals of the Four Major Port Holdings, 2010

  22. The Insertion of Intermediate Hub Terminals 15% of Transshipment Traffic 85% of Transshipment Traffic

  23. Transshipment Volume and Incidence by Major Ports, 2007-09 Asia – Mediterranean Corridor Caribbean Transshipment Triangle Northern Range East Asia Cluster

  24. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Dynamics Monthly Container Traffic (Jan 2005 =100)

  25. CHALLENGES TO CONTAINERIZATION

  26. An Expected Shift in Containerization Growth Factors

  27. Evolution of Containerships (LOA – Beam – Draft) 6 6 containers across 4 containers high on deck A A 4 Early Containerships (1956-) 137x17x9 8 500 – 800 TEU 4 200x20x9 10 Fully Cellular (1970-) 5 215x20x10 4 containers high below deck 4 1,000 – 2,500 TEU 13 6 B B Panamax (1980-) 250x32x12.5 5 3,000 – 3,400 TEU 13 8 Panamax Max (1985-) 290x32x12.5 3,400 – 4,500 TEU 6 15 9 C C Post Panamax (1988-) 285x40x13 5 4,000 – 5,000 TEU 17 9 Post Panamax Plus (2000-) 300x43x14.5 6,000 – 8,000 TEU 6 D D New Panamax (2014-) 20 10 12,500 TEU 366x49x15.2 6 E E Post New Panamax (2006-) 397x56x15.5 ; 22–10–8 (not shown) 23 15,000 TEU 10 Triple E (2013-) 8 400x59x15.5 18,000 TEU

  28. The Largest Available Containership, 1970-2013 (in TEUs) “Triple E” Class(18,000 TEU) E “Emma” Class(12,500 TEU) S “Sovereign” Class(8,000 TEU) R “Regina” Class(6,000 TEU) L “Lica” Class(3,400 TEU)

  29. Potential Impacts of Larger Containerships on Maritime Transport Systems

  30. Fuel Consumption by Containership Size and Speed Normal Speed Extra Slow Steaming Slow Steaming Ship Size (TEU) Source: adapted from Notteboomand Carriou(2009)

  31. Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Trade Routes, 1995-2011 (in millions of TEUs)

  32. Average Container Usage during its Life-Span

  33. Why Hinterland Transportation Matters? The Space / Cost Dichotomy of Forelands and Hinterlands 10% Port 80% HINTERLAND 90% FORELAND 20% Costs Distance

  34. The Inland Logistics Challenge: The “Last Mile” in Freight Distribution Capacity Funnel Frequency Funnel Atomization Inland Terminal HINTERLAND FrequencyGap CapacityGap GATEWAY Massification FORELAND Economies of scale Main Shipping Lane INTERMEDIATE HUB

  35. Main Routing Alternatives between the Pacific and Atlantic

  36. Main Routing Alternatives between East Asia and Northern Europe

  37. Conclusion: Potential Structure of the Global Container Transport System

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