Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas

1. Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 January 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Northern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights Canada and US: Below freezing temperatures spread down through central Texas and northern Florida this past week. Below freezing temperatures are expected to continue across the southern US, while wet conditions are likely in the northwest US. Mexico and Central America: Heavy rain impacted Belize and surrounding areas during the past week. Eurasia: Wet weather impacted Europe and Indonesia during the past week, and moderate snow fell in Beijing, China. The GFS forecasts precipitation to continue in Europe.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC- 3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010. During the last 4 weeks (6 Dec 2009 – 2 Jan 2010), SSTs were generally at least 2.0 deg C above average in the equatorial Pacific Ocean east of the date line. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status • The MJO index indicated an increase in amplitude and very fast eastward propagation during late December. This is consistent with higher frequency tropical variability and not a coherent MJO. • In recent days, the MJO index movement has slowed. • The GFS MJO index forecasts indicate only minor eastward propagation during the next two weeks. The signal is generally focused across the western Maritime Continent over the period. • There is considerable ensemble spread over the period. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North America West Africa East Asia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: MAY-OCT Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in parts of China. Above average rainfall has occurred in the Philippines due in part to tropical cyclone activity. During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred over the southwest US while near average rainfall has occurred over northwest Mexico. During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Below average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Northern Hemisphere Circulation C C C A Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. • During the 7-day period ( 27 Dec 2009 - 2 Jan 2010), anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation centers were located over the eastern US, northeast Atlantic and northwest Pacific Oceans. An anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation center was located over northwest Africa. • During the same 7-day period below average temperatures were observed over the eastern US, central Russia, and northeast Asia, and above average temperatures were observed over northeast Canada, northern Africa, and southern Europe.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During the 7-day period ( 27 Dec 2009 - 2 Jan 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over the northwest US, Mexico, Europe and western Russia. (top panel red ovals). • During the 7 day period (28 Dec 2009 – 3 Jan 2010) precipitation was observed over most of the same areas.

9. Canada and US • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, near to above average precipitation was observed over the northwest US, Maine, and southeast Canada. Below average precipitation was observed over the southeast US.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, below average precipitation was observed over the Alaskan panhandle, while above average precipitation was observed over parts of the Mississippi Valley. Near average precipitation was observed over much of Canada.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, precipitation was below average in the northwest US and the Alaska panhandle and above average in the southeast US.

13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are below average in the northwest US, near average in northern California and the central US, and above average in Florida.

14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were below normal in the western Canadian Prairies and near normal in the eastern Prairies. Low temperatures dropped below -20 deg C over most of southern Canada. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

15. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Temperatures were below normal across much of the central and eastern US, consistent with the very negative Artic Oscillation (AO) pattern that has been in place since mid December. Extreme minimum temperatures dropped below 0 deg F across the Midwest, northern plains, northern New England, and the Rockies. Temperatures were near to slightly below average over the northern half of Mexico. Below freezing temperatures were observed in northern Mexico for a third week. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 4 Jan 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

17. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 4 Jan 2010 – Week 2 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 near to above average precipitation is forecast for the west coast and southeast US.

18. Forecast from 21 Dec 2009 Valid 28 Dec 09 – 3 Jan 2010 Forecast from 28 Dec 2009 Valid 28 Dec 09 – 3 Jan 2010 Observed 28 Dec 2009 – 3 Jan 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: North America

19. Mexico and Central America • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the past 7 days, above average precipitation was observed over Belize and the surrounding regions and near average precipitation was observed over northern and central Mexico. For more information see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in Belize, northern Guatemala and Honduras.

22. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation below average in northwest Mexico and above average in Belize, northern Guatemala, and Honduras.

23. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are slightly above average in central Mexico, and near average in southern Mexico, Nicaragua/Honduras, and northeast Mexico.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 4 Jan 2010 – Week 1 Total Anomaly NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 4 Jan 2010– Week 2 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 below average precipitation is forecast for the Yucatan peninsula and Panama.

26. Forecast from 21 Dec 2009 Valid 28 Dec 09 – 3 Jan 2010 Forecast from 28 Dec 2009 Valid 28 Dec 09 – 3 Jan 2010 Observed 28 Dec 2009 – 3 Jan 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Central America

27. Eurasia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the past 7 days, near to above average precipitation was observed over parts of Europe, western Russia, central Africa and Indonesia. Near average precipitation was observed in southeastern China while snow fell in the Beijing area.

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the past 15 days, near to above average precipitation was observed over Europe, western Russia, Turkey, central Africa, and Indonesia. Near average precipitation was observed in eastern China.

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in southern Europe, parts of western Russia, parts of the Middle East, eastern China, east-central Africa, and Indonesia.

31. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are near average in France above average in eastern Ukraine, above average in Hungary and near average in Siberia.

32. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past 7 days temperatures were above average across southern Europe. Mediterranean regions saw low temperatures in the single digits while the remainder of Europe had low temperatures between -10 and 0 deg C. Most of Europe is under snow cover. In northwest Africa temperatures were above average with low temperatures between 0 and 10 deg C in most areas. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

33. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were above average in southwest Russia and southern Kazakhstan and below average in Siberia. Russia and northern Kazakhstan are under snow cover. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

34. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are near average in Gujarat, southern India and Luzon, and above average in eastern China.

35. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were seasonable in India and near to below average in the North China Plain. Lows dropped below -20 deg C in the North China Plain and hovered near freezing near the Yangtze River valley. Anomaly Extreme Minimum

36. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 4 Jan 2010 – Week 1 Total Anomaly NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE For more information on Tropical Hazards see: (updated on Tuesdays) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz.shtml

37. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 4 Jan 2010 – Week 2 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 near to above average precipitation is expected in Europe and east-central Africa. Below average precipitation is expected in Indonesia due to the suppressed phase of the MJO expected in that region during this period (not shown).

38. Forecast from 21 Dec 2009 Valid 28 Dec 09 – 3 Jan 2010 Forecast from 28 Dec 2009 Valid 28 Dec 09 – 3 Jan 2010 Observed 28 Dec 2009 – 3 Jan 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Eurasia

39. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS) Meteorological Products for the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) Mesoamerica Famine Early Warning System (MFEWS) Asia Flood Network (AFN) Funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Hazards Impacts Assessments for Central America http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf Africa http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/africa_hazard.pdf Afghanistan http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/AFGHANISTAN/afghanistan_hazard.pdf Additional products at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/

40. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information