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ON THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL BUSINESS CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Mercer University

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ON THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL BUSINESS CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Mercer University

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    1. ON THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & BUSINESS CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Mercer University

    2. GDP Growth vs. Final Sales

    3. Leading Economic Indicators % change in last 6 months Source: Conference Board

    4. ISM’s “PMI”

    5. CONSUMER SENTIMENT

    6. INFLATION: Heating Up Again? CPI up 0.3% in December, after up 0.8%, 0.3% and 0.3% in previous 3 months Core up 0.2% after up 0.3% in November. Core CPI rose 0.2% for previous 5 months. Overall CPI up 5.6% and up 4.1% annual rate over last 3 and 12 month periods. Core up 2.7% and 2.4% over same period. Energy prices up 17.4% over last 12 months, 37.1% annualized gain in last 3 months.

    7. CORE CPI

    8. CRUDE OIL (Spot Price, West Texas Crude)

    9. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

    10. Debt Markets: 10 Year T-Bond

    11. Yield Curve: Inversion Corrected?

    12. THE RISK PREMIUM (Moody’s BAA less 10-Year Treasury Bond) (source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System)

    13. THE RISK PREMIUM (Moody’s BAA less 10-Year Treasury Bond) (source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System)

    14. COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES

    15. COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES (Spread: Asset – Non-Fin)

    16. Change in Employment (non-farm payrolls)

    17. Change in Employment

    18. Change in Employment: ATLANTA

    19. EXISTING HOME SALES (Single Family, SSAR in millions)

    20. NEW HOME SALES (Single Family, SSAR in thousands)

    21. NAHB Housing Market Index

    22. BUILDING PERMITS: GEORGIA (12 month moving average)

    23. SF BUILDING PERMITS: ATLANTA (12 month moving average)

    24. BUILDING PERMITS: ATLANTA (Year over Year in 3 month moving average)

    25. In general, is it a GOOD time or BAD time to purchase a house? (Index = up – down + 50)

    26. EXISTING HOME PRICE

    27. CS/S&P HOME PRICE INDEX (October 2007 vs. October 2006)

    28. EXISTING HOME PRICES: Las Vegas

    31. What About Cap Rates? Building Material Prices? Cap rates still low as interest rates rise. Will low “cap rates” correct? Will expected returns on other assets fall? Is Real Estate risk premium lower? Are incomes from properties expected to rise faster? Is it due to capital availability? Global savings glut? Higher Building Material Prices a factor? Higher replacement cost drive up values? Cost absorbed in margins? Postponement of projects? Effect of vacancy rates?

    32. Georgia Budget Receipts (Nominal and “Real” in 2006 dollars)

    33. Presidential Elections Loom

    34. Presidential Elections Loom

    35. Presidential Elections Loom

    36. ON THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & BUSINESS CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Mercer University

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