Assessing the demographic impact of international migration in Cambridgeshire

1. Assessing the demographic impact of international migration in Cambridgeshire Julia Gumy (Research Officer – Population) The Research Group September 2008

2. Outline of the presentation • Aim of the research • Migration in Cambridgeshire • Data and Methodology • Results • Policy implications • Conclusions

3. Why migration? • Apparent increase in international migration • Questions: • Is migration really increasing? • Can we measure it? • Which are the areas affected? • Which are the main groups migrating? • How does this affect our population? • Which services do we need to provide?

4. Aim of the research To assess the current and future impact of international migration in Cambridgeshire’s population...... …..with a focus on migrant workers

5. Data sources

6. Limitations of the data • Administrative data sources not designed to monitor migration • Ilustrate inflows but not outflows • No indication on length of stay • Do not represent stock of migrants • Data sources cannot be linked, which means: • Different sample of overseas citizens • Different fields of information • Different time periods • Data cannot provide estimates of the number of migrants in Cambridgeshire or elsewhere

7. Strengths of the data • Allow us to study trends • When compared, the data can confirm observed patterns • Provide information at small geographical areas • Some data sources can be indicators of intended length of stay (e.g. GP data, ESOL enrolments)

8. Methodology • Collection of the data since the year 2001 • Data cleansing and re-organisation • Categorisation in continents of origin • Reconciliation of the NINos and WRS where possible • Analysis and comparison of data sources: • Trend analysis • Estimation of international migration

9. Methodology • No data on length of stay or intentions • Development of return rate scenarios: Result: ‘most likely’ estimate of the number of migrant workers in Cambridgeshire

10. Cambridgeshire • In the 2001 Census, 9% of the population in Cambridgeshire was born outside the UK Source: 2001 Census

11. Rank of LAs in the EoE

12. Rank of Cambridgeshire districts in the UK

13. Work registrations by continent of origin in Cambs Around 30,000 non-UK born people have registered to work in Cambridgeshire since 2001 The highest numbers of migrants are Polish, Lithuanians and Indians

14. Work registrations by year of registration in Cambs Source: NINOs data

15. Work registrations by district and nationality in Cambs Source: NINOs

16. Impact in Cambridgeshire • Our best estimate is 61,500 non-UK born people in Cambridgeshire • 11% of the current population, 2 percentage points more than in 2001 • Most of the non-UK population would be Western European and Asian • ONS estimates 69,000 (CI +/- 14,000) non-UK born citizens in Cambs (Source: Annual Population Survey)

17. Change since 2001 Sources: 2001 Census, NINos/WRS data

18. Characteristics of migrants • Eastern Europeans • Short-term migrants • Young (18-34) • Mostly males • Unaccompanied • Employment dependant on the district • Do not register with a GP (or perhaps not immediately) • Not many registered for language courses

19. Characteristics of migrants • Western Europeans • High presence in industrial areas • Employment linked to high-tech industry or University • Short-term migration patterns • Take up summer jobs and learn English • Mostly young • Evidence of some families with children • Do not register with a GP • Not many registered for language courses

20. Characteristics of migrants • Asians • Constant flow of Asians • Decrease in the number of registrations • Evidence of some families with children • Americans • Mostly linked to the armed forces • Africans • Low numbers • Most migrants from South Africa • Oceania • Most migrants from Australia

21. Policy Implications • Identification of priorities based on results Two examples: • Community Cohesion Strategy • Targeted communication measures • Access to guidance for employers to set minimum standards for migrant workers • Joint Strategic Needs Assessment • Identify gaps and inequalities in the provision of health care • Provide evidence for the NHS Cambridgeshire priorities

22. Conclusions The demographic impact: • International migration has increased since 2001 • How does this affect Cambridgeshire’s population? • We estimate that 11% of Cambridgeshire’s population in 2006 was born outside the UK, indicating a slight increase since 2001, when the Census counted 9% • The origin mix could have slightly changed • Western Europeans and Asians would be the largest groups of non-UK born people in Cambridgeshire • We found evidence to suggest numbers of new migrants may have already begun to decline

23. Conclusions • Measurement of migration • We need better data • Data tailored to study migration • Better quality of the data • More harmonisation • Easier data linkage • Information at small geographical levels • Better data protection • Development of large scale longitudinal surveys • New Migrant Databank (NMD) • Population register - National Identity Register (NIR) • 2011 Census

24. Conclusions • Promote information sharing between academic and local government research: • To improve understanding of migration flows • Fill knowledge gaps • Share knowledge • Share best practices • Achieve good quality results

25. For more information: The Research Group Cambridgeshire County Council Shire Hall Castle Hill Cambridge CB3 0AP E-mail: research.group@cambridgeshire.gov.uk Tel: 01223 715300