National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)

1. National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) NCWF-2 • Currently available on Experimental ADDs • Operational in ’07 replacing NCWF-1 • Automated graphical display • User-requested 0-2-hour probabilities • 4 km resolution with updates every 5 minutes at 30 minute increments. • This product is intended for strategic use by dispatchers, AOCs, and pilots (pre-flight and cockpit). Experimental ADDs Flight Path Tool

2. 10% 10% 40% 40% 40% 10% 40% 10% National Convective Weather Forecast – 2hr RTVS Verification T= 0 min +30 min +60 min +90 min +120 min Experimental ADDs Flight Path Tool Darker to lighter shades of pink : Higher to lower Probabilities Validation Observation: 4km NCWD April 1 to Oct 1, 2005

3. (2) NWP-based 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 5 1 2 3 4 6 0 NCWF–6: Blends Observation and Model Forecasts (1) Observation-based (3) NCWF-6 Blended forecast 5 30 50 70% Forecast Probabilities Verification Forecast skill vs lead time Aug 1 to Aug 14, 2005 Forecast Skill - CSI Forecast Hours

4. National Convective Weather Forecast - 6hr • 1-6 hour probabilistic forecast blends RUC and NCWF • Complimentary • Initiation • RUC: good • NCWF: not handled • Motion • RUC: improves with lead time • NCWF: degrades with lead time • Dissipation based on diurnal climatology • Available as a test version next summer, • Experimental ADDs in 2007 • Operational in 2010 replaces NCWF-2 Darker to lighter shades of pink : Higher to lower Probabilities Texture – convective organization and orientation – line, broken line, scattered Yellow areas forecast regions of echo tops over 30,000 ft