1 / 10

Prediction Markets at Yahoo!

David Pennock Yiling Chen, Tej Kasturi, Havi Hoffman, Dan Reeves

langer
Download Presentation

Prediction Markets at Yahoo!

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. David Pennock Yiling Chen, Tej Kasturi, Havi Hoffman, Dan Reeves Chao-Hsien Chu, Sandip Debnath, Mike Dooley, Rael Dornfest,Joan Fiegenbaum, Gary Flake, Lance Fortnow, Brian Galebach,Lee Giles, Joe Kilian, Steve Lawrence, Bernard Mangold, Tracy Mullen, Rahul Sami, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Michael Wellman, Justin Wolfers Prediction Marketsat Yahoo!

  2. microeconomics predictionmarkets Prediction markets @ Y! *not to scale

  3. Prediction markets @ Y! HSX Design Build Analyze NF TS WSEX FX PS

  4. Dynamic parimutuel Market maker Cross btw stock market and horse race betting Build Analyze Case Study I Design

  5. Parimutuel market 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

  6. Share-ratio cost function: • C(q1,q2)=q12+q22 • Properties • No arbitrage • pricei/pricej = qi/qj • pricei < $1 • payoff if right = C/qo > $1 Dynamic parimutuel market C(1,2)=2.2 .82 C(2,3)=3.6 .78 C(2,2)=2.8 .59 .87 .3 C(2,4)=4.5 C(3,8)=8.5 .4 .91 .49 .94 C(4,8)=8.9 C(2,5)=5.4 .96 C(5,8)=9.4 0.97 C(2,6)=6.3 C(2,7)=7.3 C(2,8)=8.2

  7. http://buzz.research.yahoo.com

  8. Analysis

  9. Yootopia: Y!Internal economy for favors, predictions, grp decisions Case Study II Design Build Analyze

  10. Betting mechanisms Combinatorics Infinite/continuous Linear programming backbone Market makers Applications More Design Build Analyze • IOU social network • Ledger system • Buzz Game: Tech stock horse race • Computational complexity • Does money matter? • Wisdom of crowds: Combining experts

More Related