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Finding Common Ground: Mutual US-Russian Concerns in Syria

Presented by: Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama.

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Finding Common Ground: Mutual US-Russian Concerns in Syria

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  1. Presented by: Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama Finding Common Ground: Mutual US-Russian Concerns in Syria

  2. Background ~70,000 killed 2.5-3 million internally displaced ~1.2 million refugees March 2011 - present

  3. The Crisis Within the Syrian Borders

  4. Prominent Actors in the Opposition Supreme Kurdish Committee (SKC) Kurdish National Council Ebril Declaration Kurdish Democratic Union Party -Internally cohesive -Has an established presence -Rejects any type of foreign intervention -Internally divided -Lacks genuine ground presence -Detached from Kurdish youth

  5. Prominent Actors in the Revolution National Coalition for Syrian and Opposition Forces Other Opposition Groups SNC FSA -Inclusive militia of SA deserters -Sees itself as secular protector of Syria -Requests support without military intervention -Has clear plan for role in transition -Tension with FSA Al-Nusra Front -Alleged Al-Qaeda links -Strong community outreach -Co-opting infrastructure to fund operations

  6. The Suffering Economic Climate of Syria Investment GDP growth Unemployment Inflation 30% in 2012 13.4 % in 2012 $14 bn in 2010 3.2% in 2010 $10 bn in 2012 -3% in 2012 4.8% in 2010 8.3 % in 2010

  7. Syria and US-Russian Relations

  8. Regional Security Concerns and International Implications Sunni Extremists

  9. Regional Security Concerns and International Implications Chechen Fighters

  10. Regional Security Concerns and International Implications Insecurity

  11. Moscow Perspective • Insurgency in the North Caucuses • Sunni Public Opinion • A strong stance is hard to convert into concrete influence Recent Shift Neutral Stance Support for Assad

  12. US Perspective • Lack of secular replacement for Assad • Low legitimacy of opposition • Security Council Stalemate Alternatives: Tactical changes, strategic continuity

  13. Room for compromise? Key but “distant” players

  14. CONCLUSION Policy Proposals

  15. THANK YOU

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