The AUGUR project

1. The AUGUR project Challenges for Europe in the world of 2030: The outlook of AUGUR project Brussels stakeholder’s, 17-18 November 2011 Pascal Petit CNRS-CEPN Paris

2. The AUGUR project horizon • Kick off meeting : October 2009 • At the turn of a financial crisis …..which was considered upfront in our proposal as a major structural crisis bound to have lasting effects. The world was obviously at a turning point. • A mid long term horizon : a decade beyond the Lisbon 20 agenda …still two decades before the 2050 fatidic deadline for the climate threat

3. On the initial assumptions • At the present phase of internationalisation ….which has become a major issue for all actors and domains of activities • Forward looking studies are bound to start with assumptions on how these international relations are combining into some set of rules and power positions , constituting more or less steady and institutionalised governing systems. • We thus started, after a while, with a set of four governing assumptions , that we then tried to assess in their main dimensions and magnitudes.

4. Four governing assumptions: • A world drawn by the fiscal consolidation of most developed economies. After a decade of financiarisation and of public and private indebtment , suddenly increased by the 2008 global financial and economic crisis, developed economies compete to reduce their deficits and indebtment . • A bipolar scenario :In the above context two continent economies , the US and China, are finding ways to support their own economies by various means, be it to the expense of the rest of the world ….and of the environment. • Regionalisation : an alternative (or a reaction ) to the above dual hegemony could stem from the surge of active processes of regionalisation , where rules of solidarity would be considered as important as rules of strict behaviour • Multilateral : Global threats , be it climate or exhaustion of non renewable resources, lead to develop solidarity rules among the diversity of regions • A system of global governance can be described by means of actors and fields of activities.

5. Global governance in the making : actors and domains • On the actors • The states: national states are traditional actors in the making of the fabric of international relations, mixing alliances and oppositions , in the domains of defence, trade and exchange rates. • The markets : large private firms in large international network services (be it in trade, transport or banking) have for even longer been major actors in the development of international relations. • The international institutions: basically the fabric of international acquired some momentum and autonomy in the post WWII era; with two main strands: the BWI Bretton Woods Institutions and the UN ones. • The civil society organisations CSOs: a large mix of NGOs and others which clearly acquired new role and voice in the 90s onwards

6. Rising internationalisation It translates in the first place in a growing involvment of the four types of actors in the making of international relations: States are continuously developing strategies of their own regarding bilateral and multilateral agreements (of which regional agreements ) Markets : large international firms directly involved in the making of international relations extend to all sectors as shown by the expansion of FDI. Gains in mobility , be it for financial flows or production processes, allow them to develop rules of their own. International institutions : BWI s and UNs may have their ups and downs, they too develop strategies of their own (the UN on climate threat issues, the world bank on millenium development goals, ..;the come back of the IMF after 2008) … CSOs : new comers in the making of the agendas and the managing of international relations clearly benefitted from the internationalisation of information and knowledge flows ( largely thanks to medias and internet) )

7. On the domains of activities • Tensions between actors in some domains are all the more exacerbated that we are entering a world of “finite resources” ..or more exactly of severely constrained modes of production and consumption : • (Malthus revenge : a reappraisal of Malthus in a new world of risks) • Non renewable resources : • Problem of access and security, • water shortages, air pollution, • -Goods • global value chains, environmental constraints at production and consumption levels, agriculture: food security issue • -Services liberalisation, globalisation of finance, international networks (trade, wall mart) • -Consumption environmental issues, security,.. • -Trade

8. Uncertainty and new technologies • Malthus revisited: • Less “shortages” than “uncertainties” with international implications: • Around the uses of new technologies: • GMOs, genetically modified organisms • Nuclear energy, coal power plants, shale gas • Nano technologies • biotechnologies • The developments of these technologies go beyond national areas.

9. Mobility and internationalisation of production factors The rapid extension of trade flows(twice the speed of GDPs growth over the last two decades) , capital flows and unequal growth rates have shifted wealth around the world. The globalisation of finance (with exponential growth of transactions) has been one major factor of this transformation. Also important has been the increased diffusion of information and knowledge (from open source to open innovation and new diffusion channels) The development of land grabing , of long term contracts of access to non renewable resources , shows that even the ownership of localised resources is shifting. Migrations are by comparison still severely restricted, but it is a forthcoming rising issue in an unequal world ….and selective immigration is already on the agenda.

10. AUGUR project : 8 work packages To address the many questions around the governing assumptions that we retained , the AUGUR project has been organized around 8 work packages: WP1 for a systemic representation of the world regions up to 2030 (with a macro model CAM) WP2 for the future of financial markets , a key issue in the aftermath of 2008 WP3 on trade and technology , a major subject considering the new diffusion patterns and structures of externalities WP4 on trends in demography and migrations , bringing major challenges in the making of the world future , with its north/south imbalances

11. WP5 on environmental issues, rising at different speeds and modes as the central worldwide concern for the 2030 horizon, pushing towards global kinds of actions WP6 on global governance , assessing how the diverse behaviours of major actors combine/conflict WP7 on well being and social implications which in the last resort tells us the social tensions and living conditions underlying the various scenarios WP8 on political economy and politics analysing the conditions of democracy in which governments can operate considering how opinions are formed and in which livingconditions .

12. This seminar will present the present state of the project considering the appraisal of the various world scenarios. Some attention will be given specially to the situation of Europe and its member states… Not up to the expectations that we could have in the present situation of the EU In the year to come it is precisely the central objective of the project (as planned) to expand on the situation of Europe and on the policies that Europe (and its member states) could follow . The discussions of these two days will be precious in this perspective

13. Thank you for your attention and your contributions to the discussions of these two days